NFL Week 7 | Pigskin Parlay Predictions & Analysis

Jason Paglia

Friday, October 18, 2019 12:22 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 18, 2019 12:22 PM UTC

There are some trap lines this week that we are going to try to avoid, so let’s get back to basics and get us in the black for the season

<p>Each week of the NFL season the Odds Market NFL team will release a Pigskin Parlay article. They may differ from week to week. One week it could be a Teaser, the next week it could be a spread or money line parlay. The goal, to finish the season with more units than we started with.</p><p>Through 6 weeks of the Pigskin Parlay, we currently sit at (2-3) down 1 unit on the season. We look to get back on track this week, and it looks like it’s a minefield out There. There are some trap lines this week that we are going to try to avoid, so let’s get back to basics and get us in the black for the season. Enough small talk, let’s make some money!</p><div><h2><strong>Week 7: 2 TEAM ACCUMULATOR </strong></h2><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Los Angeles Rams vs Atlanta Falcons</strong></h2><h2 style="text-align:center"><img alt src="https://www.cedars-sinai.org/content/cedars-sinai/blog/cedars-sinai-and-the-la-rams-partners-in-health/_jcr_content/par/contentblock_copy_co/customparsys/caption_1/image.img.jpg/1569274173308.jpg" style="width:700px;height:438px" /></h2><p>The Los Angeles Rams have lost 3 games in a row for the first time in a while. A Super Bowl team from a year ago, this was an unexpected start for Sean McVay’s team. They are now (3-3) on the year and in desperate need of a win considering the next loss gives them a losing record on the season. What has been surprising is how ordinary this team looks on both side of the ball. The defense has allowed 105 points the last 3 weeks. For a team that has the best defensive player in the world on the team, that is flat out unacceptable. They have had some injuries that have impacted the defense like the Aqib Talib. They have also traded away defensive back Marcus Peters. I thought that would be a huge factor in Sunday’s game, but the addition of Jalen Ramsey, the best cornerback in professional football is HUGE.</p><p>The Atlanta Falcons have played exceptionally well in years past at home, but this season this team has looked abysmal. Matt Ryan has been able to put points on the board this season, but the defense has been horrific. They are in the bottom 5 in most defensive metrics, and the eye test has matched the analytics. This Atlanta defense is exactly what the Rams need right now to get back on track this Sunday. The trolls are coming out of the woodwork talking about how bad Jared Goff is as a quarterback. They say it’s Sean McVay’s system that has turned Goff into a franchise QB, not Jared Goff himself. The chips are down this week. This might end up being the most pivotal game of the year for the Los Angeles Rams. Do they go all-in and get back on track against a horrific defense, or do they fold and end week 7 with a losing record? I am not ready to completely give up on this Rams team. It is slightly concerning that the line hasn’t really moved off 3 for most of the week but I’ll lait it anyway.</p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="NFL Betting Odds"><strong><em>LEG ONE: Los Angeles Rams with -3 at 1/1 (2.00) at BET365</em></strong></a></p><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts:</strong></h2><h2 style="text-align:center"><img alt src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bzcog_GCAAAweCY.jpg" style="width:700px;height:411px" /></h2><p>This is the rare game where both teams come into this game off wins against the same team. Both the Colts and the Texans looked good against the Chiefs in weeks 5 and 6. The Colts won in a tough low scoring game and the Texans won in a shootout. I am not betting a side in this game. I do give the edge to the Houston Texans in this game, but they are on the road and I would rather not fade a team with a winning record at home.</p><p>A lot of Colts fans thought the season was over before it started when they found out that Andrew Luck was retiring in the offseason. What they didn’t realize was Jacoby Brissett was a talented enough to be a competent starting quarterback in the NFL. Under Brissett the Colts have the 10 rated offense in DVOA (Defense adjusted Value over Average) according to Football Outsiders, which is a great metric to use when figuring out an offenses or defenses true play in game situations. What they are not good at it this season, is playing defense. They are in the bottom 5 in a bunch of defensive efficiency ratings this season. This defense was much better a year ago, but they haven’t been able to get the job done.</p><p>On the flip side, the Texans offense has been excellent. Deshaun Watson has been rock-solid through the first 6 weeks. He has the best trio of wide receivers in the league and the running game has pitched in when needed to give them a very balanced attack. The defense for the most part has been mediocre this season at best. The front 7 has not been as dominant with the departure of Clowney and the secondary has been burned deep at times this season. Everything that I just wrote tells us that we should expect one thing…. POINTS, POINTS, POINTS. I think the total is cheap in this game, by at least a couple points. The total opened at 48 here, and the line has moved to the under. I have no problem fading the market move here. Give me the over 47.</p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="NFL Betting Odds"><strong><em>LEG TWO: Texans / Colts over 47 at 10/11 (1.91) </em></strong><strong><em>with BET365</em></strong></a></p><h2 align="center"><strong>Pigskin Parlay Wrap Up</strong></h2><p align="center"><strong>NFL Week 7: 2 TEAM ACCUMULATOR</strong></p><p align="center"><strong><em>LEG ONE – Los Angeles Rams at (2.00)</em></strong></p><p align="center"><strong><em>LEG TWO – Texans/Colts over 47 at (1.91)</em></strong></p><p align="center"><strong><em>TOTAL STAKE – (1.00 unit) TO WIN (2.82)</em></strong></p><p align="center"><strong><em>PARLAY BANK – (10 Units to start)</em></strong></p><p align="center"><strong><em>TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS – (1.00u)</em></strong></p><p align="center"><strong><em>CURRENT BANK – (9 UNITS)</em></strong></p></div>
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