NFL Week 8 | Pigskin Parlay: Predictions & Analysis

Jason Paglia

Friday, October 25, 2019 12:05 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 25, 2019 12:05 PM UTC

This week we try to go 2 in a row with a couple of Week 8 games

<div><p>Each week of the NFL season the Odds Market NFL team will release a Pigskin Parlay article. They may differ from week to week. One week it could be a Teaser, the next week it could be a spread or money line parlay. The goal, to finish the season with more units than we started with.</p><p>Through 7 weeks of the 2019 NFL season and we are in the black gentlemen. The current record sits a 3-3 on the season for (+1.82u) of profit. This week we try to do it all over again with a couple games for Week 8. We are going to stick with 2 team accumulator bets because its hard enough to hit 2 teams never mind 3 or 4. Lets do what we do and get after it!</p><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Week 8: 2-TEAM ACCUMULATOR </strong></h2><h2 style="text-align:center"><img alt src="" style="width:700px;height:394px" /><br /><b>New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars</b></h2><p>The New York Jets were absolutely abysmal on Monday night against the Patriots. I am a diehard Jets fan that lives outside of New York and the game has already been dubbed the ‘I See Ghosts Game’. Jets quarterback Sam Darnold literally said during the game, he was seeing ghosts. So, what does the betting market do when they see horrific performances? They overreact. Can the Jets cover this number? Yes, they can. Can the Jets win this game outright? Yes, they can.</p><p>However, I am focused on the total here. The Jets offense had the worst offensive performance of the season on Monday night and that is saying something considering the Redskins and Dolphins play in the NFL. I think the book has overreacted on this total. I think Sam Darnold and this Jets offense should be able to move the ball and score points in this game. They played the best defense in the league last week. The Jaguars are solid defensively, but they are not the Patriots.</p><p>On the other sideline, I am a big fan of Jacksonville’s rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew. If a quarterback had the choice to learn under one coach in college football, it would be the offensive genius that is Mike Leach. Minshew has surprised a lot of people with how good he has looked in the first half of the season, but I am not one of those people. I thought the kid had a chance coming out of college. He has already proved his worth on this Jacksonville team already.</p><p>The total is lower than I expected. 40.5 points is low for the 2019 NFL. You can always go over 40.5 points by accident. It only takes a couple broken tackles to get over a total this low. I am going with a Sam Darnold rebound play off an overreacting market. Give me the over here.</p><p><a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="NFL Betting Odds"><strong><em>LEG ONE – Jets / Jaguars over 40.5 at 11/10 (1.91) with BET365</em></strong></a></p><h2 style="text-align:center"><img alt src="" style="width:700px;height:394px" /><br /><b>Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots</b></h2><p>We are taking our first derivative of the season in our Pigskin Parlay. This Patriots defense is one of the 3 best defenses since the turn of the century. In the last 19 years there has not been 3 defenses better than this Patriots defense. The analytics love this defense. Why is this defense so good this season? I don’t have an answer for that. It’s almost the exact same personnel from last season, yet these players have played out of their mind this season. One of the reasons I have come up with is strength of schedule. If you take a look at the quarterbacks that New England has played this season, they have been absolutely pathetic. Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus are the two services that I pay for to dive deep into these number. The best opposing team’s offensive DVOA that New England has played this season has been 20<sup>th</sup>.</p><p>This week it will not get any harder for the New England Patriots. It seems like all of gambling twitter told me I was crazy to take the Browns under 9.5 wins this season and barring a miracle, I pegged this Browns team dead to rights. Baker Mayfield has been average, at best. The offense has been flat out bad. Again, the Patriots are in a position to play the 27<sup>th</sup> best team this week in Offensive DVOA (Defense Adjusted Value over Average). There is only one bet to make in this game, and it is not lay the points with the New England Patriots. It’s backing this Patriots defense specifically. Call it a fade of the Browns offense or backing the Patriots defense, call it whatever you want. We are taking the Cleveland Browns Team Total under in this spot. Their points total is 16.5 in this game, and I don’t see how they score 17 points considering how bad this Browns offensive has looked against average teams. I feel good about this being the first derivative that we are taking this season. It might be my favorite derivative of the week. Let’s get it boys, book it!</p><p><a href=";a=dcba5f2b-1dd5-4c29-82c4-99531abcc5db&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="NFL Betting Odds"><strong><em>LEG TWO – Cleveland Browns Team Total under 16.5 at 11/10 (1.91)</em></strong><strong><em> wtih Matchbook</em></strong></a></p><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Pigskin Parlay Wrap Up</strong></h2><p style="text-align:center"><strong>NFL Week 8: 2-TEAM ACCUMULATOR</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong><em>PIECE ONE – Jets / Jaguars over 40.5 points at (1.91)</em></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong><em>PIECE TWO Cleveland Browns Team Total under 16.5 at (1.91)</em></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong><em>TOTAL STAKE – (1.00 unit) TO WIN (2.65)</em></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong><em>SEASON RECORD (3-3)</em></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong><em>PARLAY BANK – (10 Units to start.)</em></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong><em>TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS – (+1.83u)</em></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong><em>CURRENT BANK – (11.83 UNITS)</em></strong></p></div>
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