Pakistan vs Sri Lanka: Complete Guide to the First T20

Ed Hawkins

Friday, October 4, 2019 12:00 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 4, 2019 12:00 PM UTC

Mohammad Amir and Babar Azam set to shine for home team

<div><h2>Pakistan vs Sri Lanka</h2><p><strong>5 October 2019 at Gaddafi Stadium</strong></p><p>There is not much fun to be had playing the match odds market for the first of three Twenty20 internationals between these two in Lahore. It’s a mismatch.</p><p>Pakistan are rated as the No 1 team in the world. Sri Lanka are at No 8. That’s a sizeable gap with even Afghanistan rated as a better outfit that the Lankans who, it has to be said, are in disarray. They have left most of their best players at home as they once again go with an experimental line-up.</p><p>There’s not much joy on the head-to-heads even when some of their better players have been available. Pakistan have won nine of the last 12 meetings. Recent form has Pakistan winning seven of their last nine and Sri Lanka just two of their last nine.</p><p>So we are going to have to peruse the side markets for our wagers throughout this series with Pakistan expected to be no better than 1.44 (4/9) across the board.</p><p><a href=";a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></p><p>Luckily, there’s value aplenty on the home team top-bowler and top-bat markets. First up, a look at the 4.0 (3/1) that Ladbrokes offer about Mohammad Amir topping in the wickets column. On our two-year form study, we rate Amir slightly shorter. He has four wins – plus two shared honours - in 11 matches. Although we’d like the study sample to be chunkier (say 20 games) we think there’s little to beat. Shadab Khan, second jolly with most firms, has four wins and three shared honours in 25.</p><p>Ladbrokes’ implied probability is 25 per cent. Our data says it should be 36.3 per cent. That’s a decent chunk in our favour. The likes of Usman Shinwari, Hasan Ali and Faheem Ashraf don’t have either the study sample or the record to sway us.</p><p>The final wager is a back of Babar Azam for top Pakistan bat. Betfair go 3.4 (12/5). Babar’s record is so good (11 wins in 19 plus one tie) that we would be backing him at even money. Get on.</p><h2>Best Bets:</h2><p><a href=";a=b4150791-892f-469b-9b6a-7dfc6df0fb07&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Cricket Betting Odds"><em><strong>Back Mohammad Amir top Pakistan bowler 4.0 Ladbrokes</strong></em></a></p><p><a href=";a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Cricket Betting Odds"><em><strong>Back Babar Azam top Pakistan bat 3.4 Betfair</strong></em></a></p></div>
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