StarSeries Season 7 Group Stage

Adam Boothe

Friday, March 29, 2019 6:37 AM UTC

Friday, Mar. 29, 2019 6:37 AM UTC

With no Astralis in sight, the Season 7 trophy in Shanghai is up in the air!

<h2>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;iframe width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;"}[/]<br /> </h2><h2><b>Intro</b></h2><p>This is the first quality CSGO LAN since the Katowice Major at the beginning of March. It has been stated many times in the past year that the current era of Counter-Strike is the most competitive. Players are given a relatively short period of time with which to meet expectations before they get the axe. So even if it's not the most lucrative of tournaments, there is always something to play for! Of the field attending this week, I would argue that only three teams exceeded expectations at the Major; Ence, Renegades and Vici. They each achieved far different heights from one another but bested some solid teams in doing so...and maybe wrecked a few of the community's pick'ems.</p><p>There are also three teams that heavily underachieved in Katowice, and I mean VERY poor; Fnatic, North, and NRG. North bowed out before they could get to the Main Qualifier, Fnatic went 0-3 as the top seed of the Qualifier and a 'seemingly' strong NRG went 0-3 in the Main Event group stage. Arguments could be made for a few other teams under/over-performing; Faze squeaked into the playoff, NiP finally regained 'legend' status, BIG looked flat with Xantares (recent at the time), and Tyloo were their own worst enemy etc. Without Astralis in attendance, this tournament is truly up for grabs!<b> </b></p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;ViCi Gaming to attend StarSeries i-League S7 in place of Rogue.&lt;br /&gt;Details: &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;a href=\";amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#csgo&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\";amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#StarSeriesS7&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— StarLadder CS:GO (@cssltv) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;March 26, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><h2>Opening Matches<b> </b></h2><p>StarSeries will once again be running best-of-three series in a Swiss-format. As I have said in the past, this benefits the better teams...but not necessarily the favourites.</p><p>Unfortunately, I cannot go into too much detail for each play but am always available to discuss matches with on Twitter [@lockeqwerty].</p><p><em><strong><a href=";a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a" target="_blank" title="Esports Betting Odds">-Team Spirit (+1.5) v Ence @ 2.30 [Unibet]</a></strong></em></p><p><em><strong><a href=";a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828" target="_blank" title="Esports Betting Odds">-North (ml) v NRG @ 1.85 [Pinnacle]</a></strong></em></p><p><em><strong><a href=";a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c" target="_blank" title="Esports Betting Odds">-Renegades/Tyloo (o2.5 maps) @ 1.95 [Betway]</a></strong></em></p><p><em><strong><a href=";a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c" target="_blank" title="Esports Betting Odds">-Fnatic/Nip (o2.5 maps) @ 2.00 [Betway]</a></strong></em></p><h2>MAP PROPS</h2><p><strong><em><a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18" target="_blank" title="Esports Betting Odds">Highest CT% = Train @ 4.5 [Bet365]</a></em></strong></p><p><strong><em><a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18" target="_blank" title="Esports Betting Odds">Highest T% = Dust2 @ 5.0 [Bet365]</a></em></strong></p><p><strong><em><a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18" target="_blank" title="Esports Betting Odds">Most Played = Mirage @ 3.4 [Bet365]</a></em></strong></p><p><strong><em><a href="http://Esports Betting Odds">Least Played = Cache @ 3.0 [Bet365]</a></em></strong></p><p>It is not always the case, but Bet365 has by far the best map odds this time around for StarSeries. Almost a full point differential compared with every other book.</p><h2>Miscellaneous Props</h2><p><em><strong><a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18" target="_blank" title="Esports Betting Odds">Total Aces = Under 21.5 @ 1.83 [Bet365] 2u</a></strong></em></p><p><em><strong><a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18" target="_blank" title="Esports Betting Odds">Total OT Maps = Under 10.5 @ 1.83 [Bet365]</a></strong></em></p><p>Was very surprised that this was the number the books went with for the ace prop. This would be an ace approximately every 2.5 maps which statistically is far off. The price for this prop at Pinnacle is around 1.4 so I think it's a great move to hit it twice here.</p><p>Looking over the field there is not a single team that stands out as clear favourites. Ence continued their good form in Sao Paulo winning against everyone but Astralis and drawing with Liquid. That said they struggled against Renegades in Katowice dropping three maps against the Aussies. Value is a cyclical movement; we follow it until the odds no longer justify a play and must move to the other side. I would challenge anyone looking to bet this tournament to look at the outrights and see if your expectations for particular teams fit the odds. This is an excellent starting point for which teams are over or undervalued. For example, I tweeted on January 25th (prior to the Major) that I was taking both MIBR and Navi to win this tournament each at 7.0 when Liquid announced they withdrew. Mibr is now above 8.0 across the board, while Navi has moved to approximately 4.0. Has the probability of either team winning changed significantly since then? No, but the public perception of their probability has. One of the best ways to remain profitable is to get ahead of that curve.</p>
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