The Cathedral of Counter-Strike Betting Preview - ESL Cologne

Adam Boothe

Friday, June 28, 2019 10:59 AM UTC

Friday, Jun. 28, 2019 10:59 AM UTC

For the first time, in what seems like a year, Astralis are not the clear favourites to win a title!

<p>Outside of the CSGO Majors, Cologne is the one annual tournament that everyone has marked down in their calendars. The venue, history and prize purse have led it to be the most prestigious of tournaments in counter-strike. Twice it has held major status and, with the exception of 2018, has been won by the most dominant team of the year. What is more remarkable is every team that has been a finalist at Cologne will be represented here once more; NiP/Fnatic '14, Fnatic/Envy '15, SK/Liquid '16, SK/C9 '17, Navi/Big '18.</p><p>With the dominant year that 2018 was for the Danish powerhouse you might assume that ESL One Cologne was just another trophy added to their shelf. However, on the backs of one of the most incredible individual performances from in-game leader, Zeus, Natus Vincere was able to break up Astralis winning run in the middle of the summer. On top of that, his mid game calls on both Overpass and ct-side Inferno were both brilliant and very, very 'lucky'. Will we see a similar performance from the top dogs of CIS, or will it be time for a new champion once more?</p><p>Last year I wrote about the three 'write-offs' of the tournament; Renegades, Boots, and...Ence? Well none of them made it to playoffs, however it was the first time the Finns made a name for themselves on the international stage defeating Nip, Mousesports, and nearly tournament winners Navi. That same core will once again be present and have certainly captivated much of the community's attention in 2019 and surely have their sights set much higher than an 8<sup>th</sup> place finish.</p><p>There are a number of teams we haven't seen at a big LAN for some time now; Big, Ence, Renegades, Navi, Heroic and Mvp. With the exception of the final two, I have difficulty writing off any of those at this time. Additionally, a number of notable teams have a brand-new player on the roster whom we have yet to see on lan; Navi [Boombl4], Mibr [Lucas1], NRG [Stanislaw], Nip [Plopski], and BIG [Denis]. However, the tournament format certainly plays a part in the likelihood of teams to progress. Let's take a look at the groups.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;The current top 3 in the 🌎🌍🌏 will all play at &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/ESLOne?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#ESLOne&lt;/a&gt; New York! It'll be a long summer for &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/TeamLiquid?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@TeamLiquid&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/astralisgg?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@astralisgg&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/ENCE?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@ENCE&lt;/a&gt;, so what can we expect to see from them at the &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/barclayscenter?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@barclayscenter&lt;/a&gt; in September?&lt;a href=\"https://t.co/nqOdgu36XK\"&gt;https://t.co/nqOdgu36XK&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— ESL Counter-Strike (@ESLCS) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/ESLCS/status/1144261689325621248?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;June 27, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><div><h2>Format</h2><p>Cologne 19 will be setup the same way as last year. Two GSL style groups with the top two in each going to the semifinal and quarterfinal respectively. If a team loses one of their first two matches they will move to the lower-bracket and be one loss away from elimination. Only one team progresses from the lower-bracket in each group and into the quarterfinals. To get an idea of how stacked this tournament is, 13 of the top 15 in the world are in attendance [Heroic (17), Big (30), and MVP (31)]. Liquid and Navi are in Group A, while Astralis and Ence are in Group B. However, given the talent all the spots within each bracket present a danger to these top seeds</p><h2>Round One Bets</h2><p><em><strong>Liquid (-7.5) v MVP @ 1.83</strong></em></p><p><em><strong>Mousesports (ml) v Natus Vincere @ 2.25</strong></em></p><p><em><strong>Renegades (ml) v Faze @ 2.62</strong></em></p><p><em><strong>Furia (ml) v NRG @ 2.5</strong></em></p><p><em><strong>BIG (+6.5) v Astralis @ 1.83</strong></em></p><p><em><strong>Fnatic (ml) v Mibr @ 2.37</strong></em></p><p><em><strong>Vitality (-4.5) v NiP @ 1.9</strong></em></p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Esports Betting Odds"><em><strong>All with Bet365</strong></em></a></p><p>At the time of writing, only Bet365 has spreads up. However, every book should have full line selection by June 30 at the latest. I have taken all of these for the time-being but will hedge out if I can find a better price on the following; Vitality (-3.5 @ 1.8), or any of the dog moneylines. That said I already REALLY love the numbers on these underdogs.</p><p>The one match I am skipping for now is Ence/Heroic. Will be looking for Heroic +5.5, but if it doesn't show will tweet out what I am on [@lockeqwerty].</p><h2>Outrights</h2><p>Last week I passed on Astralis on the outright market at around 2.0 because the price was far too low given their form. We have finally seen the market react accordingly and put them at a much more realistic valuation of 3.50. This is a number I am ready to get involved with. I also think there is value on Liquid at greater than 3.00 and Mousesports at greater than 10.00. Some other futures that I might look to add are Mousesports, Fnatic and Big to reach the final all for some crazy prices.</p><h2><b>To Win Outright</b></h2><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&amp;a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="CSGO Betting Odds"><em><strong>Astralis @ 3.56 [Pinnacle]</strong></em></a></p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="CSGO Betting Odds"><em><strong>Ence @ 11.00 [Bet365] 0.5u</strong></em></a></p><p>I can't make sense of this Ence number. They have performed at the top level on LAN all year long and were the team to end Astralis' historic Nuke streak. They should be priced around Vitality, Navi, and at the very least Mousesports!</p></div>
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