The Dogs And Their Odds: UFC Fight Night's Underdogs

DaveBets

Thursday, February 21, 2019 2:30 PM UTC

Thursday, Feb. 21, 2019 2:30 PM UTC

UFC Prague is just around the corner, let’s take a look at this week’s underdogs and the odds available.

<h2><font size="3"><b>Damir Hadzovic vs Marco Polo Reyes</b></font></h2><p>In my previous article 24 hours prior to this, I spoke about Damir whilst he was priced at 2.20 not long after opening up as a 2.30 underdog. Just like I predicted, his price has dropped him close to a pick’em with Marco Polo <font size="3">(1.98 – 49/50 @ <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=b2e07733-b156-44ba-bdcb-83e67b8f8c27" target="_blank">SportingBet</a>)</font>.</p><p>If the money keeps coming in on Hadzovic <font size="3">(2.00 – 1/1 @ <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18" target="_blank">Bet365</a>)</font> and you were quick enough to grab those early prices, a hedge opportunity might be something worth looking at to give yourself some guaranteed profit but remember, it’s as rarity but a draw is always a possibility. That said, I can’t see this contest going the distance.</p><p>Both fighters have the potential to finish this fight but I do believe Damir is the more technically sound fighter of the two, each fighter more than capable of providing fight fans with a devastating KO finish. Marcos opening price (1.67) held no value and wasn’t an accurate reflection of the matchup against Hadzovic, I expect <a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/fighting/int/ultimate-fighting-championship/damir-hadzovic-vs-marco-polo-reyes-3724351/?mtid=126" target="_blank">this fight to be fireworks</a> and a possible ‘Fight of The Night’ contender.</p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src="https://images-production-euw2-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5c6eb9ce6726e00b4d3ffebc/original-Hadzovic-vs-Reyes" style="width:450px;height:253px" /></p><p> </p><h2><font size="3"><b>Veronica Macedo vs Gillian Robertson</b></font></h2><p>I understand Veronica's price in this spot due to her losing streak <font size="3">(2.20 – 6/5 @ <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18" target="_blank">Bet365</a>)</font>, but I am still not convinced either fighter has any clearer path to victory than the other. Both ladies are green in experience with Veronica facing the tougher opposition in my opinion.</p><p>The value is here to snatch on Veronica, I see a lot MMA fan’s predicting Gillian <font size="3">(1.73 – 73/100 @ <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c" target="_blank">Betway</a>)</font> to dominate this fight but cannot visualize that happening myself. Macedo is no slouch on the ground and I wouldn’t be shocked if she ended <a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/fighting/int/ultimate-fighting-championship/veronica-macedo-vs-gillian-robertson-3724349/?mtid=126" target="_blank">this fight</a> with some ju-jitsu in the later rounds.</p><p>Veronica opening up at 2.80 was a huge number considering the facts, slowly the public grabbed that value and now it’s close to evens at some book makers. I’m not so sure it’s worth taking after this huge drop.</p><p>Notably, from 41 women’s flyweight contests 26 of those have ended by decision. Currently for this fight to go the distance you can get (2.15 - 23/20 @ <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=b2e07733-b156-44ba-bdcb-83e67b8f8c27" target="_blank">SportingBet</a>).</p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src="https://images-production-euw2-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5c6ebac57074f50b4e3615b3/original-Macedo-vs-Robertson" style="width:450px;height:253px" /></p><p> </p><p><font size="3"><b>Stefan Struve vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima</b></font></p><p>This is a tough fight to call, the <a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/fighting/int/ultimate-fighting-championship/stefan-struve-vs-marcos-rogerio-de-lima-3724344/?mtid=126" target="_blank">line opened as a pick’em and now the money is coming</a> in on de Lima leaving the ‘skyscraper’ at an underdog price. Struve <font size="3">(2.10 – 11/10 @ <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18" target="_blank">Bet365</a>)</font> has the size &amp; experience advantage over Marcos, both fighters have lacked fighter IQ in the past but de Lima <font size="3">(1.73 – 73/100 @ <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18" target="_blank">Bet365</a>) </font>lacks in this trait considerably more. I can see Struve being the successor on the feet or on the ground alike, I don’t see how Struve can lose in any situation whether that be standing, in the clinch or on the ground.</p><p>Struve has fought some of the best heavyweight’s to enter the heavyweight division over the past ten years. This fight is the final bout on Stefans contract and if he wants any hope of being offered more fights by the UFC he’s going to need a win here.</p><p>The path to victory here for Marcos de Lima would be an aggressive flurry of strikes early in the first round, I think Struve can use his length to avoid these dangerous exchanges with Marcos. Marcos de Limas previous three losses have all came by submission, whilst Struve holds the skills to lock in a submission at any point of the fight. I do lean Stuve in this spot but always be careful when the heavyweights are throwing leather.</p><p>You can get a nice price on Struve inside the distance for (2.32 - 38/25 <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=b2e07733-b156-44ba-bdcb-83e67b8f8c27" target="_blank">@SportingBet</a>).</p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src="https://images-production-euw2-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5c6ebc387074f50b4e3615b4/original-struve-vs-de-lima" style="width:450px;height:253px" /></p>
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