Tour de France Week One Rest Day: Betting Update

Ian O'Sullivan

Tuesday, July 16, 2019 3:33 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 16, 2019 3:33 PM UTC

How do we see the next week shaping up after today's rest day?
<div><p style="text-align:center"><a href=";a=9feaaf7a-d7a2-4185-974a-81ad171951df&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" /></a></p><p>It started with a bang for Jumbo Visma, winning the opening stage with Mike Teunissen and the Team Time Trial on the next day in Brussels, and ended the same way with their boy-wonder Wout Van Aert outsprinting Elia Viviani, Caleb Ewan, and Peter Sagan to take the team’s fourth stage win in 10.</p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src=";operation=CROP&amp;offset=0x139&amp;resize=3637x2042" /></p><p>In between, Dylan Groenewegen had taken stage 7 for them in a sprint, Viviani had won on stage 4, Peter Sagan flexed his muscles to take stage 5 and Julian Alaphilippe put on a show for his adoring French fans, taking stage 3 and wearing the yellow jersey for 6 days of the ten so far. There were impressive wins also from breaks for Dylan Teuns on La Planche des Belles Fille and Thomas de Gendt with a monster solo win on stage 8.</p><p>In the overall competitions, Geraint Thomas made a move in the last kilometer of La Planche des Belles Filles on stage 6, and thanks to their strong Team Time Trial on the second stage he is now in the box seat as the leading GC candidate. He is 1’12” down on Julian Alaphilippe, but it will be a major surprise if Alaphilippe still has the jersey at the end of this week, yet alone in two weeks’ time in Paris.</p><p>Ineos have been superb so far in this race, marshalling the pack with purpose every stage, looking after Geraint and Bernal and pushing hard when they need to in order to punish opponents, like Monday on Stage 10 when they blew the race apart and dropped Thibaut Pinot, Jakob Fuglsang, Richie Porte, and Rigoberto Uran.</p><p>His team-mate Egan Bernal, who start the race marginal favorite ahead of Thomas, sits in 2nd place though, just 4” behind his team-mate and has been riding very well too. He hasn’t put a foot wrong either, and I wouldn’t worry too much about him losing a little time to Thomas on La Planche, his terrain in the ultra-high mountains is coming.</p><p>They really are in a great position though, they have Thomas, the defending champion now leading, with a team-mate his nearest rival... They can control the race and Bernal can be used to set a very high tempo for Thomas, to discourage and prevent attacks. And if Thomas does find himself in difficulty, Bernal is there ready to step into the leaders’ shoes.</p><p>But Steven Kruijswijk, my pick, is right in the mix and in a great position at the end of the first week, as good a position as I could have hoped for. He’s just 11” off of Bernal and 15” away from Thomas, and currently holds the virtual 3rd spot on the GC. He has a good team with him here, we have seen how strong they are in the first week with four wins, but how much energy will they have left for the mountains? George Bennett is looking good, they’ve been sparing Laurens de Plus from any work whatsoever, saving him for the mountains. I think he’s still in a great position to challenge for the win here and will put up a big fight to the Ineos boys.</p><p>Emanuel Buchmann and Enric Mas have stealthily crept into the top 6 too, we’ve hardly seen them really, yet they sit 5th and 6th. And Nairo Quintana, Adam Yates, and Dan Martin – even though they have around a minute to make up on Thomas, they are most certainly not out of it yet and have been riding well. And their terrain is yet to come too – Quintana, Yates, and Martin will come alive in the mountains to come.</p><p>It was a disaster Monday for Pinot, Uran, and Fuglsang, they were looking alright too, sitting comfortably in the top ten before they got shelled in the crosswinds and slid down the GC. Richie Porte too was looking good and was sitting in 18th, he looks like he has blown any chance he had of a podium now too and will have work hard just to make the top 10.</p><p>Peter Sagan is comfortable in the Green Jersey, he looks nailed-on now bar an accident or illness to take yet another green jersey, and Egan Bernal is also in the driving seat for the white jersey for best young rider. The KOM jersey is still a nightmare to try to pick, there are about 10 riders who look interested and have been taking points, but it could still be someone else entirely take the jersey.</p><p>Thomas de Gendt and Giulio Ciccone have looked keen, as has the man who currently wears it, Tim Wellens, but he has been looking tired and I think it’s only a matter of time before he passes it on to someone else. Julian Alaphilippe is still the favorite but now is 7/2 from the starting price of 7/4, his battle for yellow could hamper his chances of taking the KOM jersey. But watch out if he does lose the jersey and a lot of time (which I think is coming, he’s put a lot of energy in to this first week to get the yellow jersey for Bastille day), he might go stage hunting and KOM jersey hunting – and the 7/2 might look like a great price come the end of next week.</p><p>But now we also have Mikel Landa, Vincenzo Nibali, and Romain Bardet, three great climbers who have lost a lot of time already and are out of the GC battle, could they go KOM point hunting? I am on Bardet as a speculative punt at 66/1, as I thought he might not go as well as was hoped in the GC and start to look at the KOM instead, that is still possible and he’s been cut to 33/1 as a result.</p><div><h2>How do we see the next week shaping up?</h2><p>Well, stage 11 is a sprint stage that should see another big battle between Viviani, Ewan, Groenewegen, Sagan and the rest, and I’m hoping Elia Viviani can get a proper leadout this time and land his second stage win.</p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src=",960:579-960-0-70/c57fe" /></p><p>Stage 12 on Thursday sees them finally hit proper mountains, but it’s like an hors d’oeuvres for what lies ahead, with just two climbs after a pretty flat stage for 130kms before the Col de Peyresourde and Hourquette d’Anzican rises up to bite them. It looks like a day the break might make it through, and we might not see much of a shakeup in the GC, with it being a downhill finish to Bagneres de Bigorre, where Dan Martin beat Jakob Fuglsang back in 2013.</p><p>Stage 13 is the crucial 27km TT in Pau that could well finish off the GC hopes of some, it’s where we’ll see the likes of Rohan Dennis, Geraint Thomas, Michal Kwiatkowski, Stefan Kung, Tony Martin, and Yves Lampaert flex their muscles. Although he hasn’t quite been himself in TTs this season, it looks like Rohan is going all-in for this TT and is my pick to take the win.</p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src=",960:579-960-0-70/376c0" /></p><p>Stage 14 is a Saturday spectacular, it’s a short stage at just 117kms, but it should be explosive – first up it’s the 12km Col du Soulor half way through the stage, then it finishes atop the mighty Col du Tourmalet, a ‘Haute Category’ 19km climb at 7.4% average which takes them to over 2,100m.</p><p>This is going to be the first real battle royale at a summit finish, and it’s where we will find out who of Thomas, Bernal, Kruijswijk and the rest are really going to challenge in the final week. Watch out for Nairo Quintana, Rigo Uran, and Egan Bernal at this high altitude.</p><p>And then on Sunday, we have yet another tough mountain stage, with the finish on the Cat 1 Foix Prat d’Albis, a 12km climb at 7% average, which comes after two other Cat 1 climbs. Watch out for the break this day, the likes of Vincenzo Nibali, Romain Bardet and Mikel Landa might fancy a go at this one.</p><p>So it’s still all to play for, although Ineos are most certainly in the driving seat. But all it takes is one bad day, one mistake in a cross-wind or on a tricky descent and that can all go awry. But also, they haven’t been tested yet in the mountains... Will they be the ones crumbling, or dishing out the pain?</p><p>It looks more likely to be the latter, but Steven Kruijswijk, Enric Mas, Emanuel Buchmann, Adam Yates, Nario Quintana and the rest are still in this race and will be putting it up to them this week, or at least, trying their best to stay close enough to really go for it in the brutal final week that is still to come.</p><p>Best bets for now? Well, I still think Steven Kruijswijk can take a podium spot, and the 18/1 that he being offered at is a good each-way bet still. If things go awry for Ineos one day, he might even be able to take the lead. He won’t be far off Thomas in the TT and he won’t be far off him in the mountains. And Ineos can’t chase every attack, maybe he’ll be able to sneak away one day when Ineos are struggling to chase everything down. 1pt e/w on Kruijswijk at 18/1 with <a href=";book=Bet365" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bet365</a>.</p><p>Also, Nairo Quintana and Adam Yates are looking really good, but we’ve seen how Nairo has looked good in the recent past and then collapsed when it was needed most, something similar could be said about Adam Yates, but he’s had a beautifully smooth race so far and that team are gearing up for a big assault in the 3rd week, he too is worth an each-way bet at 20/1 with Bet365. 1pt each-way on Adam Yates at 20/1 with <a href=";book=Bet365" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bet365</a></p><p>Back Michael Matthews to win the ‘Without Peter Sagan’ market for the Green Jersey at 11/10 with Bet365. Matthews will continue to pick up points and should make it to Paris, I’m not sure Elia Viviani will. 2pts on Michael Matthews to win the Green Jersey (without Peter Sagan) at 11/10 with <a href=";book=Bet365" rel="nofollow" target="_top">Bet365</a></p></div></div>
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