Cincinnati Masters Day 2 Preview and Treble Bets

Tennis Pilot

Monday, August 12, 2019 10:09 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 12, 2019 10:09 PM UTC

First-round action continues in Cincinnati on Tuesday and we’re back with our best bets.

<div><h2>Cincinnati Treble Day 2 - Total Odds 5.6</h2><p><a href=";a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Best odds with Betway</a></p><h2>Fernando Verdasco vs Benoit Paire - Total Games: Over 22.5 at 1.8</h2><p>Verdasco is 6’ 2” while Paire is 6’ 5” and both possess a powerful serve and forehand combination. Neither is particularly serve orientated under normal conditions but Cincinnati is one of the quickest outdoor hard events on tour with 81.1% hold compared to a tour average of 78.1% on hard courts. Generally, it is an event good for over bets and in this context, I would expect a tight, serve orientated match.</p><p>This over line would have lost in just 7 of the last 20 matches for Verdasco priced 1.5 to 2.99 on hard courts and 6 of his last 20 in general. Stats-wise it is not as strong of a bet for Paire but it has still lost in just 1 of his last 5 matches priced 1.5 to 2.99 on hard courts.</p><p>Paire is the ever so slight favourite for this match up but it is effectively a coin flip which usually increases the chance of a tight match. Given that both players are tall and power orientated and the courts are fast I feel that taking the over bet is a sensible strategy.</p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></p><h2>Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Andrey Rublev - Nikoloz Basilashvili to win at 1.73</h2><p>Given the quick conditions and playing styles of these two, it seems likely to be an entertaining, heavy-hitting, power orientated clash. This rematch of the ATP Hamburg final is likely to be close but I would expect the Georgian to prevail.</p><p>Basilashvili has been a punter's best friend for his entire career with an incredible 15% ROI over more than 400 matches. In main level, non-slam matches priced 1.5 to 2.99 he has a 17.3% ROI over 129 matches and most impressively he has won 70% of his last 50 at the price range for a 43% ROI.</p><p>Rublev, by contrast, would have lost you 1.1% over his career of more than 300 matches. In main level, non-slam matches priced 1.5 to 2.99, he has a -13.5% ROI over 86 matches and he has won 48% of his last 50 at the price range for a -13.8% ROI.</p><p>The Russian played some superb tennis in ATP Hamburg this year to make the final but has been fairly poor otherwise. The fact that Basilashvili was able to beat Rublev in 3 sets in that Hamburg final is indicative of the difference in quality - even at his best, Rublev was not good enough. Overall the H2H is 2-0 to Basil and 4-1 in sets with both matches coming this year and the most recent coming in July.</p><p>Basil has enjoyed conditions in Cincinnati before with a 4-3 record, 27.8% ROI and wins at 2.3 and 3.2. Rublev has struggled at the venue with a 2-2 record, -41.4% ROI and, if we discount his win by retirement after 3 games earlier this week, he has only a single win which came in 3 sets when he was priced as favourite.</p><h2>Sofia Kenin vs Julia Georges - Julia Georges +3.5 Games at 1.8</h2><p>I said last week when backing Andreescu against Kenin that the American, while in excellent form, was still a vulnerable underdog, and so it turned out as she lost in straight sets. Once again I feel she is being flattered by the odds and in quick conditions, I’m happy taking Georges to keep this close.</p><p>Kenin is 5’ 7” and a well-balanced player but has struggled with the pace of the courts here holding a 2-3 record and -40.4% ROI. Georges, by contrast, is 5’ 11” and power orientated with a 7-8 record and 2.2% ROI at the venue. In 2017, she defeated the then 10 ranked Radwanska and the 5 ranked Svitolina to make the quarter-final priced 2.6 and 4 respectively.</p><p>The main reason behind these prices is obvious - recent and immediate form. While Kenin has a 32-16 record in 2019 and 34.3% ROI, Georges is 19-15 and -7.1% ROI. However, these numbers don’t tell the whole story. As mentioned last week, Kenin has still been consistently good to oppose as a favourite against top 100 opposition with an 18-14 record and -16.9% ROI. In 2019 that changes to 14-8 and -6.3% ROI, so not as bad, but far more opposable than her overall record suggests.</p><p>Georges has also been a touch unlucky with her results this year, losing some key points and sets. As an underdog away from the slams, she has won just 2 of 6 matches in 2019 for a 23.6% ROI but she has covered the handicap line in 4 of those 6 which would have netted you a handy profit at available odds. She has also had some tough luck with injuries of late, which is partly why the handicap makes sense as it is voided if she retires before the result is guaranteed.</p><p>The H2H is 1-1 with the last match coming September 2018 where Kenin won 6-3 2-6 6-4, so again the handicap would have come in. Last week Georges looked good against Bencic where she lost in 3 as an underdog but covered the handicap (7-5 3-6 4-6). I’m happy to bet on more of the same, especially after Kenin’s deep run last week which may see her jaded or at least a little slow to adjust to conditions at the start of this match.</p></div>
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