2019 Nitto ATP Finals Outright Preview and Betting Predictions


Saturday, November 9, 2019 7:30 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 9, 2019 7:30 PM UTC

The Nitto ATP Finals field and groups have all been set, join us as we break it down to find the best outright selections for this year's penultimate tournament!

<div><h2>Trends and conditions</h2><div>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Selfie of the season 😅&lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/NittoATPFinals?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#NittoATPFinals&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/fXOBu06tU5\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/fXOBu06tU5&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— ATP Tour (@atptour) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/atptour/status/1192743030056538112?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;November 8, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</div><p>After a long and exciting season, we have finally arrived at the penultimate tennis event of 2019, with only the Davis Cup Finals to follow: The Nitto ATP Finals! Here, the Elite 8 players in the world will duke it out for prize money, precious points to add to their ranking and prestige. Featuring an $8,000,000 prize pool with a potential $2,712,000 along with 1500 ranking points going the way of an undefeated Champion, there is plenty to play for.</p><p>The event is taking place at the famous O2 Arena in London, being the second largest indoor venue in the United Kingdom. Seating 20,000 fans, the atmosphere will be rocking for the year-ending climax of ATP tennis. Played out in a round-robin format where the 8 players are split into groups of two, the best two from each group will advance to the semifinals. The court conditions are a bit of an unknown but were slowed down last year after blazing-fast conditions in the two years prior. However, as body heat from spectators accumulates, the speed of the surface is quickened. Last year's Champion is Alexander Zverev, who at age 21 became the youngest to triumph since his opponent in the final, Novak Djokovic, did it 10 years prior.</p><p>So, with that, let's get into the group stage!</p><h2>The Group Stage</h2><div>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;The world’s top eight singles players have touched down in London ahead of the Nitto ATP Finals. ✈️&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Head down to Peninsula Square outside The O2 from 11am tomorrow to catch a glimpse of them before they take to the court. 😍 &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/zOTgrzjnkb\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/zOTgrzjnkb&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— ATP Tour (@atptour) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/atptour/status/1192502840113188866?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;November 7, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</div><p>Just like all year-ending championships across both tours, the format in this tournament differs from the single-elimination format we traditionally see in tournaments. The 8 players are divided into two groups, group Andre Agassi and group Björn Borg, with 4 players in each. Playing once against the other three players in the group, the top two in each advance to a single-elimination semifinal, where the group winners face the second-placed player in the other group and vice versa. The winners in each semifinal contest the final. In the case of a tie-breaker between players in the group stage, here are how they are resolved:</p><p>Tiebreakers:</p><p><em>a) Greatest number of <strong>wins</strong>;</em></p><p><em><strong>b)</strong> Greatest number of <strong>matches played</strong>;</em></p><p><em>Comment: 2-1 won-loss record beats a 2-0 won-loss record; a 1-2 record beats a 1-0 record.</em></p><p><em>c) <strong>Head-to-head results</strong> if only <strong>two</strong> (2) players are tied,</em></p><p><em><strong>d)</strong> If <strong>three</strong> (3) players are tied, then:</em></p><p><em>If three (3) players each have one (1) win, a player having played less than all three (3) matches is automatically eliminated and the player advancing to the single-elimination competition is the winner of the match-up of the two (2) players tied with 1-2 records; or</em></p><p><em><strong>Highest percentage of sets won;</strong> or</em></p><p><em><strong>Highest percentage of games won;</strong> or</em></p><p><em><strong>The player positions on the Emirates ATP Rankings</strong> as of the Monday after the last ATP World Tour tournament of the calendar year.</em></p><p><em>If (i), (ii), (iii) or (iv) produce one (1) superior player (first place), or one (1) inferior player (third place), and the two (2) remaining players are tied, the tie between those two (2) players shall be broken by head-to-head record. </em></p><p>Now, without any further ado, let's break down the groups!</p><h2>Round Robin - Group Andre Agassi:</h2><div>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Look who’s arrived at &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/TheO2?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@TheO2&lt;/a&gt;...&lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/NittoATPFinals?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#NittoATPFinals&lt;/a&gt; | &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/RafaelNadal?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@RafaelNadal&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/EPW1ayb8oe\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/EPW1ayb8oe&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— ATP Tour (@atptour) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/atptour/status/1192442243107491840?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;November 7, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</div><h2>[1]Rafael Nadal</h2><p>The world number 1 and the first to qualify for London seeks his first-ever ATP Finals title and a 5th year-ending no. 1 ranking. It's been another brilliant year for Nadal, who won his traditional Major at Roland Garros and also succeded at the US Open. Rarely fully fit at the end of the season, the 33-year old Spaniard once again comes into the tournament under an injury cloud, with an abdominal strain forcing a withdrawal from the recent Paris Masters semifinal.</p><h2>[4]Daniil Medvedev</h2><p>This year's big exclamation mark, who has won four titles this season, including two of the possible nine ATP Masters trophies. Putting together one of the most unbelievable summers in recent memory, the 23-year old Russian made <em>six consecutive finals</em>. Scoring three titles from those appearances, only a redlining Kyrgios and Rafael Nadal himself has stopped the new world no. 4 from further glory. After suffering a shock early exit at the Paris Masters, Medvedev will be keen to make amends and end the year on a high.</p><h2>[6]Stefanos Tsitsipas</h2><p>It's been a fantastic year for the Greek superstar, managing to accomplish his 2019 goal on the first attempt at the Australian Open, which was making a Major semifinal. Breaking into the top-10 along with scoring two titles, the 21-year old fell into a heavy slump over the summer, losing his first match in six out of eight tournaments. Despite clawing back to form with reaching the semifinals or beyond in three of the four latest tournaments, the feeling is Tsitsipas still isn't playing his best tennis.</p><h2>[7]Alexander Zverev</h2><p>Last year's Champion at times looked close failing to even qualify for the year-ending event. It's been a season full of ups and downs, with double fault and unforced errors-yips plaguing the 22-year old German all year long. Scoring just the one title in Geneva compared to four and five in the years prior, it's still not been a disastrous season for the world no. 7. However, Zverev is currently lacking the world-beating confidence that saw him usurp the world's best in a career performance here last year. A repeat doesn't look likely in current form.</p><p>With question marks again surrounding Rafael Nadal's fitness, the door is left ajar for the hungry youth. The great Spaniard has withdrawn before or during the event for three years in a row, and could well repeat that horror streak again this year. Daniil Medvedev emerges as the clear favourite if the world no. 1 isn't fully fit, with a dominating 5-0(!) H2H record against Stefanos Tsitsipas. Along with a crushing 6-4, 6-1 victory over Alexander Zverev to claim the Shanghai Masters title, look no further than the resilient Russian to emerge victorious.</p><p>As for who will join him, look no further than Stefanos Tsitsipas. Both the Greek and his German rival found some much-needed form in Beijing, but it is Tsitsipas who is the more confident of the pair right now. Along with winning the last three meetings with Zverev, it looks likely that the pressure of defending the title in these circumstances will be too much for "Sascha".</p><h2>Predicted semifinalists:</h2><p><strong>[4]Daniil Medvedev </strong></p><p><strong>[6]Stefanos Tsitsipas</strong></p><div>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;\"Novak is waiting for me.\" 😂&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Welcome to &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/TheO2?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@TheO2&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/DaniilMedwed?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@DaniilMedwed&lt;/a&gt;!&lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/NittoATPFinals?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#NittoATPFinals&lt;/a&gt; | &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/FightSmart?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#FightSmart&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href=\"https://t.co/lH80NvDDKD\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/lH80NvDDKD&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— ATP Tour (@atptour) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/atptour/status/1193146805648855040?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;November 9, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</div><h2>Round Robin - Group Björn Borg:</h2><div>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Caption this 😂&lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/DjokerNole?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@DjokerNole&lt;/a&gt; | &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/NittoATPFinals?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#NittoATPFinals&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/Zb13dC7K9a\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/Zb13dC7K9a&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— ATP Tour (@atptour) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/atptour/status/1192755819336667136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;November 8, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</div><h2>[2]Novak Djokovic</h2><p>Holding the world no. 1 ranking for most of this year matters little right now for Novak Djokovic. Having been usurped by Nadal, there is still hope to reclaim his spot at the pinnacle of the ranking tree. In order to do so, the Serb overcame the flu to win the Paris Masters in impressive fashion, and must now reach the final with at least two round-robin wins to have a shot at closing the 640-point gap. There is plenty of incentive to do so, with a chance to match Pete Sampras' record of six year-end no. 1 finishes.</p><h2>[3]Roger Federer</h2><p>While some signs of age-related decline are understandably present in the Swiss Maestro's game, the 38-year old Roger Federer is still a force to be reckoned with. Claiming five titles in 2019, and holding two Championship points on serve for a sixth at Wimbledon. Though he hasn't won this title since 2011 and not made the final since 2015, circumstances are favourable this year. Fresh after skipping the Paris Masters following his Basel title and in the preferable group, Federer will fancy his chances.</p><h2>[5]Dominic Thiem</h2><p>Long seen as the "Prince of Clay" and without much hard court pedigree, Thiem has taken definitive strides towards redefining those thoughts this year. Winning the Indian Wells Masters along with titles in Beijing and Vienna has seen the Austrian perform incredibly well on hard courts as of late. However, the long and grueling season looks to have taken a heavy toll on the 26-year old. Following the first-ever title on home soil in Vienna, Thiem looked well and truly out of gas in the subsequent Paris Masters and has a woeful record at this event in the years prior.</p><h2>[8]Matteo Berrettini</h2><p>A spectacular breakthrough season has seen Italy obtain yet another big name in Matteo Berrettini. The big-hitting 23-year old has followed up a maiden title last year in Gstaad with two more in 2019, taking home Budapest on the red dirt and Stuttgart on grass. Impressively enough, the world no. 8 didn't even drop a set in the last triumph. Making the Last 16 at Wimbledon and the US Open semifinals proves that Berrettini is here to stay. However, the debutant has tensed up in the big moments against the elite before, losing heavily to both Federer and Nadal on the big stage. It looks tough to change that in this setting.</p><p>Novak Djokovic is fully determined to emerge from this group with as many wins as possible, to keep hopes of ending the year as world no. 1 alive. Having won four straight matches against Roger Federer, all three hardcourt meetings against Dominic Thiem, and likely having far too much for the debutant Matteo Berrettini in a first career meeting - it looks set up for the Serb to do just that.</p><p>As for who'll join him, it's tough to look past Roger Federer. Though he trails the H2H meetings with Dominic Thiem by 2-4, he demolished the Austrian 6-2, 6-3 here last year. Fresh after a Basel title against a likely fatigued Thiem, a repeat of that result feels likely. In the elegant Swiss' first meeting against Matteo Berrettini, it was a 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 beatdown (though Berrettini was hampered by an ankle injury). It's tough to see the debutant posing much of a threat in this affair either though, and Federer should advance.</p><h2>Predicted semifinalists:</h2><p><strong>[2]Novak Djokovic </strong></p><p><strong>[3]Roger Federer </strong></p><div>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Breakfast with champions earlier today 💪🏼🎾 Photobombing is a top tactic this year 😏🤣😂 &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/NittoATPFinals?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#NittoATPFinals&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/BYFTXLVaRc\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/BYFTXLVaRc&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Novak Djokovic (@DjokerNole) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/DjokerNole/status/1192830722924580864?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;November 8, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</div><h2>The Verdict</h2><p>Looking at the group stage projections, the standout play is to take on Rafael Nadal in group Andre Agassi. With injury doubts once against clouding the Spaniard's hopes, the incredible Daniil Medvedev looks prime to take advantage. At a 2.65 price with Unibet, backing the Russian to win the group is appealing. In group Björn Borg, Novak Djokovic is on a mission, and when the Serb is on a mission with that fiery look in his eyes, he takes some stopping. A tired Dominic Thiem and a probably nervous Matteo Berrettini should test the Serb passes comfortably enough, and with four straight wins against Roger Federer - the 1.65 Unibet price on Djokovic to win the group is a solid shout.</p><p>The semifinals would then pit Djokovic against Tsitsipas and Medvedev against Federer. After studying the Greek's game following the Shanghai defeat, the Serb demolished Tsitsipas 6-1, 6-2 in Paris, and should make the final in a repeat of that matchup. In the other semifinal, Medvedev isn't without a chance, but he has a tough matchup against Federer who has the ability to take time away from him.</p><p>That has resulted in a 0-3 H2H record against the Swiss Maestro, and if the courts are quick this year, the advantage swings in Federer's favor. Regardless of who emerges victorious, however, after winning four consecutive titles between 2012-2015, it once again looks like Novak's time to shine. Expect the Serb to hoist the trophy in his bid to become world no. 1, and back that outcome at a 2.20 price with Bet365.</p><p><em>As per usual, there were so many things to go into, but too little time (and space). If you have any questions regarding my selections, or anything tennis related, feel free to hit me up on Twitter [@SnizeMaster]. Thank you for being with me this far, and until next time, take it easy!</em></p><div>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;The class of 2019.&lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/NittoATPFinals?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#NittoATPFinals&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/PQ2PjhKGH2\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/PQ2PjhKGH2&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— ATP Tour (@atptour) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/atptour/status/1192774321191706625?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;November 8, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</div><p><strong>Best bet: Daniil Medvedev to win Group Agassi at 2.65 (33/20) with [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Unibet</a>] 1.5u</strong></p><p><strong>Best bet: Novak Djokovic to win Group Borg at 1.65 (13/20) with [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Unibet</a>] 2u</strong></p><p><strong>Best bet: Novak Djokovic to win outright at 2.20 (6/5) with [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bet365</a>] 1.5u</strong></p></div>
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