ATP and WTA China Quarter-Finals Preview and Top Betting Tips

Tennis Pilot

Thursday, October 3, 2019 6:51 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 3, 2019 6:51 PM UTC

Can Kasatkina make it four in a row against the struggling Wozniacki?

<div><h2>Darya Kasatkina vs Caroline Wozniacki (16)</h2><p><strong>Friday, October 4, Beijing</strong></p><p>We’re into the quarter final on the women’s side of the China Open and all four matches are scheduled for Friday. There have been a fair few upsets this week though 7 of the last 10 matches have been won by the betting favourite.</p><p>There are some exciting match ups on Friday with Andreescu against Osaka surely the highlight. Barty also takes on Kvitova in what is priced as a virtual pick ’em while Svitolina takes on Bertens and Wozniacki plays Kasatkina.</p><p>I have little interest in the Barty or Bertens matches which seem correctly priced, and, while it’s tempting to once again side with Andreescu, I’ve opted to back Kasatkina to upset the defending champion.</p><p>In fairness, Wozniacki has looked good this week and plays well in Beijing, where she is defending champion. These are the main concerns for the bet and if she plays her best tennis, I may be made to look silly here. However, a lot of things suggest she is opposable. Firstly, she has had injury issues and is in general decline. More importantly, she has been consistently good to oppose recently with a -17.1% ROI over the last year and as favourite she has been poor with a -14.6% ROI over the last year. Kasatkina is a former top 10 player and ranked 45 currently. Wozniacki has a 8-9 record and -25% ROI over the last 12 months against the top 50. Only once has Wozniacki won more than 3 matches in a row in 2019 and this would be match number 4 this week.</p><p>Kasatkina hasn’t had the best year either but at 22 she has a lot more upside than Wozniacki. She also seems to have rekindled some form this week defeating last weeks’ Wuhan champion Sabalenka priced 4.5 and Alexandrova priced 2.4. She is a rising talent and excellent underdog with a 22.7% ROI over her last 50 priced over 2 and hard and indoor hard are her best surfaces. My favourite stat is that she has won the last 3 meetings against Wozniacki, all in straight sets, all in 2018, all as underdog priced 3.5, 2.5 and 2.3.</p><p>It’s difficult to gauge how much conditions will help Wozniacki and, given her form this week, I’ll opt for half stakes, but it’s very hard not to think that Kasatkina is the value play all things considered.</p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=95095aa3-ae41-43ba-886d-99a97893c4a3&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best bet: Darya Kasatkina to win at 2.88 with Boylesports [0.5u]</strong></em></a></p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&amp;a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2>Sam Querrey vs Alex Zverev (2)</h2><p><strong>Friday, October 4, Beijing</strong></p><p>We’re also into the quarter final on the men’s side of the China Open and all four matches are scheduled for Friday. Beijing is not historically a great tournament for underdogs and 2019 has continued the trend so far with 7 underdog wins from 24 matches. The longest priced winner so far is Sam Querrey at 3.75 against Bautista and that match ended in retirement.</p><p>Nonetheless, there seems little in the way of value favourites to me. I have little interest to back any of Zverev, Khachanov, Thiem or Tsitsipas even given their solid form this week. As can be expected at this event, value looks thin on the ground, but I was surprised to see Zverev so short against Querrey and several factors make me think he offers some value.</p><p>Anyone who has followed me for a while will know that I have been happy to oppose Zverev for most of this year. The talented German seemed to let off court issues affect his game and suffered as a result in 2019 offering countless opportunities to oppose him successfully as favourite. The main issue with opposing him again this week is that his immediate form is strong. He dismantled Tiafoe and Auger Alliassime for the loss of just 9 game combined and part of me thinks his efforts in the Laver Cup may have finally given him the boost needed to end his 2019 woes. However, he still has a -13% ROI this year as favourite and until he shows sustained good form, I think it is fair to take him on with the right player at the right price.</p><p>Querrey is the right kind of player in my eyes and at 3.6 he offers at least some appeal. He is 6’ 6” with a huge serve and his game is based almost entirely on power. As often with this style he is a strong underdog winning 42% of his last 50 matches priced 2 to 6 for a 25.7% ROI including 5 of his last 10 and both this week. He’s also played well in Beijing before defeating Youzhny and Wawrinka priced 2.7 and 3.88 so there’s lots of reasons to think he will make Zverev work.</p><p>All in all, I’m happy to take a chance that Zverev’s immediate form wavers but given his strong form and Beijing’s poor underdog record I’ll stick to half stakes.</p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best bet: Sam Querrey to win at 3.6 with Bet365 [0.5u]</strong></em></a></p></div>
comment here