ATP Basel Day 2 WTA Elite Trophy Zhuhai Day 1 Best Bets

Tennis Pilot

Monday, October 21, 2019 7:20 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 21, 2019 7:20 PM UTC

Trend of long matches looks set to continue when Bertens and Vekic clash in Zhuhai.
<div><h2><strong>Zhuhai Elite Trophy</strong></h2><p><a href="" target="_blank" title="Zhuhai Elite Trophy Odds"><strong>Tuesday, October 22, Zhuhai</strong></a></p><p>The Zhuhai Elite Trophy is upon us and we’ve got three matches on day one. Sabalenka and Keys are strong favourites to come through their matches and, while both underdogs have some appeal, it is the third and most competitive match which has drawn my attention. <a href="" target="_blank" title="Match Odds">Bertens takes on Vekic</a> in an eighth career meeting and the almost even money pricing indicates the expectation of a tight fought match. I can’t disagree and for me the value lies in taking over 20.5 games at 1.72 with <a href=";a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Get in the game with Unibet">Unibet</a>.</p><p>A few factors make this an obvious bet. For starters, they are both tall, especially Bertens who stands at 6’ 0”, and they are relatively serve orientated, at least by WTA standards. They’ve held 10% and 8% more than the average on hard courts respectively yet Bertens has broken 1% less than the average and Vekic has broken 2% more. Bertens is 1.66 for this match and has played 20 matches in 2019 priced 1.5 to 1.99 with 15 seeing this bet win or be returned including the last 6 in a row. Vekic is 2.1 and has played 12 matches over the last year priced 2 to 2.99 with 7 seeing this bet land, so less prolific but not poor.</p><p>Bertens is the focus as the more serve orientated player so it is notable that these two have met 6 times at main level in their career between 2015 and 2019 and this over bet has won in every match. That includes 3 times this year, most recently when Bertens won 3-6 6-1 7-6 just a few weeks ago in Beijing. Of their last 10 H2H sets, 5 have gone past 5-5 so it has clearly been a serve orientated match up.</p><p>Zhuhai is indoors which is the second quickest surface behind grass and given the high prestige nature of this event I would expect both players to be highly motivated. All in all, while 1.72 doesn’t scream value, I would still have said 1.53 to 1.61 was a fairer price range so I’m happy to bet on a seventh straight win for the over bet in this H2H.</p><p><strong>Best bet: <a href=";a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Get in the game with Unibet">Over 20.5 games at 1.72 with Unibet</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><a href=";a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2><strong>Swiss Indoors Basel</strong></h2><p><a href="" target="_blank" title="Swiss Indoors Basel Odds"><strong>Tuesday, October 22, Basel</strong></a></p><p>Nice to see our outright Federer easing his way through the opening round in Basel and after just 4 matches on day 1 we have 7 on the cards for Tuesday. There are several options for underdog backers with potentials including Garin, Fognini, Londero, Ramos and Copil. I could make a case for any or all of the above being value but again I feel the side markets offer better prices. I’m going with the first set tiebreak at 4 in the match between Copil and Bautista for my value pick on day 2.</p><p>As those who follow my articles will be aware, Copil is one of our outrights for the week and I’ll rehash some of the points from my preview here. He is an indoor hard specialist and was in excellent form last week in Antwerp losing out in 3 tight sets to eventual champion Andy Murray. He’s 6’ 4” and serve orientated holding 85.4% and breaking 15.7% over the last year indoors and often gives better players a good match, especially on this surface.</p><p>Only 8 times in his last 50 matches priced 2 to 6 indoors has he lost without winning a set or making it to a tiebreak. He’s played 9 matches against the top 20 indoors and just once has he lost without a tiebreak or winning a set and 5 of the opening sets went to 7-5 or 7-6. Last year at this event he beat Cilic 7-5 7-6 priced 4.5 and Zverev 6-3 6-7 6-4 before losing 7-6 6-4 to Federer.</p><p>Bautista is clearly not an ideal candidate for tiebreaks but he often struggles to win easily indoors, especially against decent underdogs. Priced 1.2 to 1.99 indoors he has played a first set tiebreak in 5 of his last 10 matches going back to the end of 2017. Perhaps more notably, these two have met twice, both on clay and 3 of their 5 sets were 7-5 or 7-6. Most recently, Bautista won 4-6 7-6 7-5 so he’s clearly not had it all his own way against Copil in the past, and on a surface more favourable to the Spaniard.</p><p>If Copil can maintain his recent high quality serving and rekindle his 2018 form in Basel this looks set to be a tight match and I’m happy taking a chance on the first set tiebreak at 4 with <a href=";a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Place your bets with Betway">Betway</a>.</p><p><strong>Best bet: <a href=";a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Place your bets with Betway">Set 1 Tiebreak: Yes at 4 with Betway</a></strong></p></div>
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