ATP Basel: Day 1 Preview and Best Bets

Tennis Pilot

Sunday, October 20, 2019 3:29 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 20, 2019 3:29 PM UTC

Opelka and Garin are likely to conjure up tiebreaks in quick indoor conditions.
<div><h2><strong>Christian Garin vs Reilly Opelka</strong></h2><p><a href="" target="_blank" title="Game Odds"><strong>Monday, October 21, Basel</strong></a></p><p>We are onto week 43 of the ATP Tour and on the indoor hard courts of Basel, Switzerland. There are several interesting looking match ups on Monday’s card. Copil was in strong form last week and he may well test Bautista Agut at an appealing price of 3.5. Cuevas is surprisingly good indoors and, especially with Wawrinka in the Antwerp final on Sunday, the underdog also has some appeal in this match, perhaps on the games handicap. Fritz, Garin and Londero are also underdogs with appeal to a greater or lesser extent but none of the prices have enough perceived value for me to tip. Instead, I’ll turn to a side market in the match between Opelka and Garin in the form of the first set tiebreak at 3.25 with Bet365.</p><p>Opelka has been compared to Isner, the tiebreak machine, many times, understandably as they both stand over 6’ 10” and play a uniquely serve orientated game style. Opelka is the tallest player on tour at just over 6’ 11” and, like Isner, he plays a lot of tiebreaks with 42% of his indoor and outdoor hard sets making it to 6-6 over the last year. On indoor hard alone that number rises to 45% with 95.8% holds and 10.4% breaks yet we are getting 3.25 implying a 30.7% chance.</p><p>Garin is balanced rather than serve orientated so he’s not ideal for this bet but these two met at the French Open earlier this year and it was 7-6 7-5 7-6 with just one break in the whole match. Garin is more clay orientated but he has had respectable results so far away from the red dirt with a 47-41 record and 13.7% ROI. He has had wins over 5 top 50 players on hard courts over the last year, notably including Isner. Just last week he lost 3-6 7-6 7-6 to Seppi and clearly looked comfortable on the surface.</p><p>Garin should have a huge edge from the baseline against Opelka and as long as he holds his nerve we are likely to see a very serve orientated match. Most books have this between 2.2 and 2.5 which seems about right. Anything over 2.75 seems worth a bet and at 3+ it’s clear value.</p><p><strong>Best bet: <a href="" target="_blank" title="Game Odds">First Set Score Any Player: 7-6</a> at 3.25 with <a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Get in the game with Bet365!">Bet365</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><a href=";a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2><strong>Stefanos Tsitsipas (3) vs Albert Ramos-Vinolas</strong></h2><p><a href="" target="_blank" title="Game Odds"><strong>Monday, October 21, Basel</strong></a></p><p>Tsitsipas is 1.2 for this match and, while that feels short, it is hard to directly oppose the talented youngster, especially on immediate form. Instead, it makes sense to back him not to win comfortably. At 6’ 4” he is naturally serve orientated holding 84.9% and breaking 19.9% over the last year, playing 0.25 tiebreaks per set on indoor and outdoor hard courts. Against tough underdogs he often struggles to win easily with just 11 of his last 50 asfavourite against the top 100 coming in straight sets without a tiebreak. Ramos is ranked 42 currently and has been as high at 17.</p><p>Ramos fits the bill of tough underdog, a wily veteran who performs surprisingly well indoors. At 6’ 2” he has an effective serve and as a leftie he has a natural advantage against right-handed players with a one handed backhand, such as Tsitsipas. He has a history of playing tiebreaks indoors against top quality opposition with 9 of his 22 matches priced over 2 against the top 50 indoors going to a tiebreak. These two met on clay in Barcelona last year and it was 6-4 7-5. Once again Bet365 are offering higher than most books on the first set tiebreak. Most are around 3.75 but at 5 it is a solid value selection and my pick for the match.</p><p><strong>Best bet: <a href="" target="_blank" title="Game Odds">First Set Score Any Player: 7-6 </a>at 5 with <a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Get in the game with Bet365!">Bet365</a></strong></p></div>
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