ATP Basel Day 4 & WTA Elite Trophy Zhuhai Day 3 Best Bets

Tennis Pilot

Wednesday, October 23, 2019 6:05 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2019 6:05 PM UTC

Indoor specialist Berankis has the weaponry to take a set off Tsitsipas in Basel
<div><h2>Swiss Indoors Basel</h2><p><a href="" target="_blank" title="Check all Tennis Odds"><strong>Thursday, October 24, Basel</strong></a></p><p>We’re into the second round in Basel and there are several intriguing match ups on the cards for Thursday. Gasquet takes on Bautista and based on recent form you’d have to give the Frenchman a chance. They met in Cincinnati earlier this year and it was Gasquet who came out on top at a similar price, so I wouldn’t say the Spaniard is a banker, though indoor hard is probably not ideal conditions for an upset.</p><p>Goffin plays Opelka and should, on first round form, be too good but it is always dangerous opposing Opelka as he can beat anyone if he serves well enough on the day. Last round he became the first player on record to win a completed match without winning more than 8 points on return. To Garin’s dismay, who lost just 6 points on return, 3 in each set, Opelka took it in two tiebreaks despite winning 49% of points.</p><p>Tsitsipas and Berankis is the most interesting match up for me and the one which offers the clearest value. The rising Greek talent is not a player to oppose lightly but he tends to struggle to win easily against strong underdogs and indoor hard is his second worst surface behind grass. Berankis fits the bill of a strong underdog as an indoor hard specialist and he has an excellent record of pushing the elite on this surface.</p><p>Tsitsipas has continued his climb up the rankings and after reaching world number 5 in August he is now 7 in the world. Ranked just 90 two years ago and outside the top 250 a year earlier his rise has been exceptionally impressive. However, he does his best work against the elite and often struggles to win comfortably when priced as the favourite. Priced as favourite at main level he has a -3.2% ROI and he’s dropped a set in 23 of his last 50 including 9 of his last 12. Compare that to his 37.7% ROI as underdog at main level. Last out he won 6-3 7-6 priced 1.2 against Ramos. They had the same number of return games with break points so he was a little lucky to win in straight sets.</p><p>Berankis consistently does his best work indoors especially as the underdog with a 23.9% ROI priced over evens on the surface. He has played 86 matches indoors where stats were recorded and has a combined service/return points won percentage of 103%. Tsitsipas for comparison has played 37 recorded matches and sits at 102.4%. Berankis has played 18 matches priced over 3 indoors and 8 have gone to 3 sets including 4 of his last 5. All 3 of his matches against the top 10 indoors have gone the distance as have 5 of his 7 against the top 20 indoors.</p><p>These two played in Metz last year with Berankis a similar price and he won 6-7 7-6 6-3. His form has been a little shaky but he has come through qualies here and demolished Andujar 1 and 1 first out so he should feel good coming into this match. He has an excellent record in</p><p>Basel, most notably defeating Raonic priced 9 and he has never lost in straight sets at the venue.</p><p>All things point to the same outcome, a tight 3 setter, and while I wouldn’t put anyone off the win, I have a feeling Tsitsipas will get his revenge so personally I’ll stick to the side market.</p><p><strong>Best Bet: </strong>Total Sets: 3 at 3 with <a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="A+ Rated Bookmaker!">Bet365</a></p><p><a href=";a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3"><img alt src="" style="width:100%;height:38px" /></a></p><h2>Zhuhai Elite Trophy</h2><p><strong>Thursday, October 24, Zhuhai</strong></p><p>We had a winner last out when Bertens and Vekic just about covered the 20.5 line and we have 3 matches again for Thursday. All look close and difficult to read with the highlight perhaps the match between Keys and Martic.</p><p>Keys was poor last out in defeat to Zheng and this match will determine whether she just needed a warm up or simply came to Zhuhai empty handed. However, it’s difficult to argue with the American being favourite all things considered, though on 2019 form Martic certainly seems unlikely to roll over and won their only H2H meeting as a 3.3 underdog. The surface should also suit Martic over Keys so if anything I might take a chance on the underdog here, but she was poor last out and hasn’t played a match yet this week so it’s all a bit up in the air.</p><p>Riske takes on Muchova in what should be a high quality affair, and this match seems correctly priced. Both are in good form and seem unlikely to lose badly, but on overall stats there seems little value to be had in over markets. Finally, Bertens takes on Yastremska and it is interesting to see the top seed being priced as underdog. Yastremska is the player with more upside and she has arguably been better recently, but I would be surprised if she won comfortably, so perhaps the overs or 3 sets is an option here.</p><p>Very little stands out as clear value, however, so I’ll stick to just the one selection for Thursday.</p></div>
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