ATP Basel Final Betting Tips & Predictions

Tennis Pilot

Sunday, October 27, 2019 10:48 AM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 27, 2019 10:48 AM UTC

Swiss maestro Federer is likely to be too much for De Minaur on home soil
<div><h2>Roger Federer vs Alex De Minaur</h2><p><a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/tennis/world/atp/atp-basel-switzerland-men-singles/de-minaur-vs-federer-3964511/" target="_blank" title="Game Odds"><strong>Sunday, October 27, Basel</strong></a></p><p>We are into the final of the Swiss Indoors Basel where Federer takes on De Minaur. It’s been a strong week for Federer who hasn’t even had to play a tiebreak. The sun really does shine on the Swiss maestro in Basel, but is there any chance De Minaur bucks the trend?</p><p>Not much in my opinion but with Fed at 1.12 it’s a tough ask to find any value in the favourite, so I’ve had to be a little imaginative. Most players elect to serve if they win the coin toss – Federer does every time - but some mix it up, and De Minaur is one of them. He’s served second in 32 of his 50 matches in 2019 including 12 of his last 13. I’m aware this is a speculative point, but it’s also something where, at worst, if I am wrong, then the bookies are correct to assume it’s 50/50, but if I’m right then it gives us a huge edge in set score markets, which brings us to the bets.</p><p>Federer has been on a roll this week and, as often in Basel, he is consistently winning by a break or more in every set. He is 1.12 for this match and priced sub 1.2 against the top 50 in Basel Federer is 23-0 and he has won by a break or more in 19 of the first sets, with 11 being 6-3 or 6-1. Given he always elects to serve first, it is unsurprising that these set score dominate.</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=160&amp;a=9feaaf7a-d7a2-4185-974a-81ad171951df&amp;f=3"><img alt src="https://imstore.bet365affiliates.com/AffiliateCreativeBanners/Sports/General/Bet%20Builder/en-GB/UK/STD/728x90_2.jpeg" style="width:100%;height:12px" /></a></p><p>De Minaur is a young rising talent and I think he has a bright future, but until he develops a more potent weapon I think he’s going to continually struggle to do much against the elite, as he has so far. His record priced over 3 against the top 10 is 0-11 and against the top 5 he has lost by a break or more in the opening set of every one of his 6 matches: 6-4, 6-1, 6-1, 6-2, 6-1 7-5. His game is based on a high intensity, well rounded game, which is exactly the kind of style Federer likes when he’s on song as it gives him a medium paced, comfortable ball to smack.</p><p>I was tempted to go with 6-1 in the hopes of Federer dominating, but I would rather take full advantage of the coin flip if I am right, so I’ll have a half point on both 6-1 and 6-3.</p><p><strong>Best Bets:</strong></p><ul> <li>Set 1 Score: Federer 6-3 at 4.5 with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=153&amp;a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Bookmaker!">Betfair</a> [0.5u]</li> <li>Set 1 Score: Federer 6-1 at 11 with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=153&amp;a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Bookmaker!">Betfair</a>[0.5u]</li></ul></div>
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