ATP Chegdu Semi Finals Match Tips

Tennis Pilot

Friday, September 27, 2019 7:58 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 27, 2019 7:58 PM UTC

Back to form Carreno-Busta is value to outlast the inconsistent Shapovalov.

<div><h2>Denis Shapovalov (8) vs Pablo Carreno-Busta</h2><p><strong>Saturday, September 28, Chengdu</strong></p><p>Our bet on a tiebreak in the match between Gerasimov and Shapovalov was a touch unfortunate to lose despite it being serve orientated with just 3 breaks between them in 3 sets. We’re on to the semi-final and we’ll start with the match between Shapovalov and Carreno-Busta.</p><p>Shapovalov is one of the only Laver Cup players to win a match this week with Isner, Fritz, Kyrgios, and Tsitsipas all losing their opening match as the favourite. It definitely seems like fatigue and context switching was an issue and, while Shapovalov has looked good at points this week, I would say the Canadian seems a little more sluggish than usual, especially in the uncomfortable, high humidity of Chengdu.</p><p>Shapovalov’s game is based around power and strong serving and he tends to struggle for consistency especially against strong defenders such as Carreno. As often with power orientated, big match players he is a poor favourite with a -5% ROI over his last 50 against the top 100. Carreno is currently ranked 63 and a former top-10 player. He is playing at least top 50 tennis this week and Shapovalov has won just 7 of his 15 as favourite against the top 50 over the last 12 months for a -24.1% ROI. He needed a third set tiebreak priced 1.3 against Klahn and went to a decider against Gerasimov last out so he has been vulnerable this week.</p><p>Carreno has been in good touch recently and will want to end the year strong after fitness and form difficulties in the earlier parts of the year. The Spaniard’s strength is in his consistency and robustness from the back of the court and when he’s in form it is very hard to hit through his defences. He leads the hold/break stats on hard courts over the last year by 4.6% and Carreno is excellent as a slight underdog winning 38 of his last 50 priced 2 to 2.99 for a 28.5% ROI. Despite preference stereotypes he is actually most profitable on hard courts with a 22-15 record priced 2 to 2.99 for a 38.3% ROI including winning 7 of his last 10.</p><p>The Spaniard has looked increasingly good this week and defeated Garin 7-5 6-2 last out in what was an impressive display. He lacks a killer weapon but Carreno is likely to make Shapovalov work very hard. Shapovalov only has one game so if he can’t hit through Carreno and/or if there are any Laver Cup fatigue issues it may unravel quickly for the Canadian. I can’t really see why Shapovalov is being priced as the favourite here and I would probably flip the odds. I’m happy to take 2+ and at 2.15 it seems good value.</p><p><strong>Best bet:</strong> <a href=";a=95095aa3-ae41-43ba-886d-99a97893c4a3&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Carreno-Busta to win at 2.15 with BoyleSports</a></p><p> </p><h2>Alexander Bublik vs Lloyd George Harris</h2><p><a href="" target="_blank"><strong>Saturday, September 28, Chengdu</strong></a></p><p>Two surprise semi-finalists who have played some excellent tennis so far this week. Both are 22 and talented with a lot of upsides in the next few years and it’s very hard to read this match with confidence.</p><p>Harris failed to qualify losing to Klahn but when Majchrzak withdrew the South African came to take his place. He’s managed to make his way through tricky matches coming back from a set down to Fucsovics priced 2.4 and Sousa priced 2.7 and most notably he has served very well, especially under pressure hitting 1.35 aces per game and saving 71.4% of breakpoints. He is the very slight underdog for this match which is questionable on longer term stats as Harris leads the one-year hard court hold/break by a whopping 6.9%. He also has a good record in close matches winning 29 of his last 50 priced 1.5 to 2.99 for a 12.7% ROI so there is a lot to like about Harris in this match.</p><p>The main problem is how well Bublik has played already this week given his tendency to get better over a tournament. He’s won 10 of his 11 quarters, semis and finals priced as favourite over the last 12 months for a 57.1% ROI and he’s a phenomenal 16-2 in quarters, semis and finals generally over the past 12 months for an 89.4% ROI. In his opening match he took down the sixth seed Fritz priced 3.6 and last round he defeated fourth seed Dimitrov priced 4. Both were very tight and, like Harris, it was his serving under pressure that made all the difference. He has hit 1.59 aces per game this week and won 70.6% of service points. For perspective, Isner is usually around 1.5 aces per game.</p><p>Harris has the longer term advantage but Bublik is the better big match player and in excellent form. It’s a pick ‘em for me and, while I am often inclined to take a chance on the underdog, I’ll pass here in expectation of a high quality, well fought match.</p></div>
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