ATP Chengdu Day 3 and WTA Wuhan Day 4 Best Tennis Bets and Predictions

Tennis Pilot

Tuesday, September 24, 2019 6:16 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 24, 2019 6:16 PM UTC

Take a risk on Alison to upset home hope Qiang Wang

<div><h2>Qiang Wang (8) vs Alison Riske</h2><p><strong>Wednesday, September 24, Wuhan</strong></p><p>Terrible puns aside this is an intriguing matchup between a consistent, aggressive baseline grinder in Wang and the more attacking, power orientated style of Riske. The price is easily explained by raw stats with Wang ahead in all areas but that was true in their two previous encounters and in both Riske won comfortably. The American has a tendency to play her best as the underdog and to me this comes down simply to whether Riske can continue that trend.</p><p>Wang is one of the most consistent players on tour and plays her best tennis on hard courts. She has looked in solid form of late and I doubt she will roll over. However, her game style is very predictable and limited. She lacks weapons or a sense of freedom and variety which makes her vulnerable to wily and/or powerful underdogs. As a favourite against top 100 opposition on hard she has a 17-13 record for a -0.1% ROI and she has lost 5 of her last 10 for a -5.6% ROI. Not hugely opposable, but certainly not someone I would avoid betting against with the right player.</p><p>Riske fits the bill as a player who has the weaponry and understanding needed to raise their game against the best. The American has been a punters best friend in 2019 with a 29.3% ROI and she does her best work on hard and grass. She is an excellent underdog winning 42% of her last 50 matches for a 21.6% ROI and over the last 12 months that number rises to 56.2%. On hard courts her ROI as underdog is 15.2% lifetime and she has won 46% of her last 50 for a 27.3% ROI including 7 of 14 in 2019. Wang is ranked 12 and Riske has a 24% ROI priced as underdog against the top 20 including winning 4 of her last 10 for a 39.2% ROI. The H2H is 2-0 and 4-0 in sets (7-5 6-0, 6-3 6-3) to Riske. She was priced 3.5 and 2.5 and both matches came on Chinese hard courts since 2018.</p><p>The main worry for this bet is that Wang has superior immediate form and has played well in Wuhan before, but Riske has a habit of turning it on against better players and clearly enjoys the match up. I would have said 2.25 to 2.38 was fair so it’s an easy bet at 2.75.</p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best bet: Alison Riske at 2.75 with Unibet</strong></em></a></p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&amp;a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2>Vasek Pospisil vs Jordan Thompson</h2><p><strong>Wednesday, September 25, Chengdu</strong></p><p>Disappointingly, again it feels like there is little in the way of underdog value despite this being an event with such a high percentage of underdog wins. Having said that, I mentioned that Garin was one to watch against Edmund and he won comfortably in the end, and Evans very nearly lost to a Chinese wild card, so perhaps it just requires a bit of extra faith. Either way, we comfortably landed the over bet in round 1 with Klahn needing a deciding set tiebreak to defeat Jung so I’m happy to go with the over market again in the match between Vasek Pospisil and Jordan Thompson.</p><p>Pospisil is the main focus this time as a 6’ 4” serve and volley specialist who has a history of going long. Over the last year on hard he has held 86.2% and broken 17.8%. Tour average is 79.5% holds and 20.5% breaks so he is a good candidate for overs generally. Despite losing 10 of his last 14 priced 2 to 2.99 the over bet has landed or been returned (retirement) in every one of these matches going back to the beginning of 2018. Overall the over bet has landed or been returned in 40 of his last 50 in this price range going back to August 2014.</p><p>Thompson is less ideal for overs but not awful holding 79.7% and breaking 76.7% over the last year on hard. He’s 1.72 for this match and priced 1.5 to 1.99 he has played 21 matches over the past 12 months with the over bet landing in 13 or 62%. Even on these numbers the bet is value at 1.82 and Pospisil is far more serve orientated than Thompson’s average opponent.</p><p>Conditions are supportive with Chengdu at 500m altitude and this event has the most tiebreak matches of any main level event on tour. I would have said this line should be 1.61 so it’s an easy bet at available odds.</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&amp;a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best bet: Over 22.5 Games at 1.82 with Pinnacle</strong></em></a></p></div>
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