Can Bublik pull-off the upset on Sunday in Chengdu?
<div><h2>Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Alexander Bublik</h2><p><strong>Sunday, September 29, Chengdu</strong></p><p>Carreno got the job done for us in the semi to land a 2.15 winner to round out a nice week on the daily bets. In the opposite half, Bublik edged Harris in what was a predictably tight match. Onto the final we go and it’s an intriguing match-up. The stoic consistency and robustness of Pablo Carreno-Busta comes up against the power, flare and talent of 22-year old Alexander Bublik. I would expect this to be an exciting match and a few markets appeal at the prices.</p><p>Bublik has been the most profitable player to follow this week and on immediate form you have to feel he has every chance to land his maiden title. He has defeated fourth and sixth seed Fritz and Dimitrov priced 3.6 and 3.75, both in tight 3 setters and most notably his serving has been impeccable with 1.59 aces per game and 70.6% service points won. For reference, Isner is usually around 1.5 aces per game. The Russian has a history of playing his best tennis against top opposition with a 16-13 record priced as underdog against the top 100 for a 95.5% ROI. He also tends to play his best tennis later in tournaments with a superb 17-2 record and 89% ROI in quarters, semis and finals over the last 12 months. The one H2H match came in 2016 with Carreno priced 1.2 coming through in 3 sets despite winning fewer games (6-4 2-6 7-6). Lots of reasons to like the underdog for this match and Bublik to win is the first selection at 2.8.</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p><p>However, Carreno is not a player to oppose lightly. The Spaniard has won 20 of 28 matches as favourite in 2019 for a 17.4% ROI and he’s looked clinical this week dropping just the one set. His game is based around grinding down his opponent by absorbing everything thrown at him and redirecting the pace effectively. Against an opponent like Bublik he will almost certainly have an edge from the back of the court and, while the 6’ 5” Russian can serve bombs, it is unlikely he will break Carreno a great deal. Nonetheless, the Spaniard lacks a big weapon and is often made to work hard for his wins against talented underdogs. He is 1.44 for this match and in just 11 of his last 50 matches priced 1.2 to 1.99 has he managed to win without dropping a set or going to a tiebreak. Bublik has lost in straight sets without a tiebreak in just 6 of his 29 matches as underdog against the top 100, so, however you look at it, there is little reason to think this will be a walkover. I would not be surprised if Carreno managed to edge a tight match again as he did when they last met, and even if Bublik wins it seems very likely to be tight. Total Sets: 3 at 2.6 and Set 1 Tiebreak at 4.1 both appeal and are the second two selections for this match.</p><p>All in all, I would expect this to be tight, possibly swingy and likely serve orientated. Carreno is clearly the more likely winner but I would have said 2.37 to 2.5 was a fair price on Bublik so at 2.8 he gets the nod. Chengdu is at 500m altitude and conditions are set to be fairly hot, not too humid and cloudy with little to no wind or rain. Combined with their history of playing tight matches at respective odds ranges and with Bublik’s serving this week, I would price a first set tiebreak at around 3.25 to 3.4 so at 4.1 it has clear appeal. Lastly, this is a clash of styles with two players in excellent form so a swingy and/or very tight, serve orientated match seems likely. I would not expect either to roll over and, while it’s a difficult market to price, I would have said 3 sets should be 2.25 to 2.37 so at 2.6 it is our final selection.</p><p><strong>Best bets: </strong></p><p><strong><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds">Bublik to win at 2.8 with Pinnacle </a><br /><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c&f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds">Set 1 Total Games: Over 12.5 at 4.1 with Unibet</a><br /><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds">Total Sets: 3 at 2.6 with Betway</a></strong></p></div>