ATP Chengdu Outright Betting Tips

Tennis Pilot

Sunday, September 22, 2019 7:47 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 22, 2019 7:47 PM UTC

Evans has the draw to go deep in the first Chinese event of his career
<div><h2>ATP Chengdu</h2><p><strong>Monday, September 23, Chengdu</strong></p><p>We are onto week 39 of the ATP tour and the Asian swing has begun. First stop is the fourth edition of the Chengdu Open, held at the Sichuan International Tennis Centre in Chengdu, China on outdoor hard courts. Conditions and medium paced even with 500m altitude and the weather is cloudy and high humidity. The field is medium quality with 5 of the worlds top 25 in attendance and it has been an event for big priced winners with 67 priced Khachanov and 41 priced Istomin both taking the trophy.</p><p> </p><p><strong>Quarter 1</strong></p><p>Isner and Shapovalov are the seeded quarter finalists in this section of the draw. Neither has looked in great form this year with the American seemingly on the decline over the past few seasons and generally poor in China so as the 6.5 favourite he is easily opposed. However, Shapovalov had a return to form over the US hard court swing and seems likely to contend but doesn’t appeal at 7. Berankis has the ability to spring a surprise and Gerasimov was excellent last week, but both are indoor specialist so I would expect one of the seeds to make it through this quarter.</p><p> </p><p><strong>Quarter 2</strong></p><p>Paire and Edmund are the seeded quarter finalists in this section of the draw. Paire has looked far more consistent this year and was decent in Metz last out but seems to have been ill going from his comments: ‘I do not think I will go to Chengdu … it’s better to recover a few days before heading back to Tokyo and Shanghai’. He looks little value at the 13 regardless. Edmund might appeal at 19 were he not in dire form this year while Verdasco seems unlikely to favour conditions so has little appeal at 26. Carreno has been too inconsistent for me so also lacks appeal at 26 but Albot has had an excellent season and is tempting at 51. This feels like quite an open quarter with all players holding a decent chance if in form.</p><p><a href=";a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:100%;height:38px" /></a></p><p><strong>Quarter 3</strong></p><p>Fritz and Dimitrov are the seeded quarter finalists in this section of the draw. Fritz comes here off the back of Laver Cup duty (as do Isner and Shapovalov) and after a solid season he is likely to contend this week but again offers questionable value at 17. Dimitrov had a superb couple of weeks at the US Open but he had been dreadful for the rest of the year and definitely feels opposable this week at 7. Evans, Bublik and Pospisil all offer potential underdogs for this quarter at appealing prices.</p><p> </p><p><strong>Quarter 4</strong></p><p>Lajovic and Auger-Aliassime are the seeded quarter finalists in this section of the draw. Lajovic is an intriguing player with an unorthodox style who has had a solid season in 2019 and played well in Chengdu in the past so he has appeal at 34. Auger Aliassime is a rising start of the game but has done his best work so far on the red dirt and looks short to me at 8. Londero is an intriguing underdog at 41 in this quarter with little hard-court pedigree but very strong immediate hard court form coming into this event with wins over Berrettini and Querrey as heavy underdogs.</p><p> </p><p><strong>Verdict</strong></p><p>Lots of options in this event and no part of the draw seems highly predictable. In an event where the top of the field usually struggles, I’m turning to the third quarter and an underdog in the form of Dan Evans who is 23 with Bet365.</p><p>The Brit is somewhat of an enigma who often outperforms his seemingly limited technique and game style. His game is complemented with craft and guile and it appears that he is excellent at getting under the skin of his opponents. That was certainly the case when he took down this week’s top seed Isner in Delray Beach earlier this year and Evans has an excellent 23-25 record as underdog on hard courts for a 54.7% ROI. His form late in tournaments is good with a 5-5 record in quarters, semis and finals for a 66.1% ROI and most recently he made the final of Delray Beach in 2019.</p><p>He is 1.25 against a Chinese wild card in the opening round and his projected path is Dimitov, Fritz, Auger-Aliassime and then Isner. Evans won his last match against Dimitrov and Isner while he should have his chance against the big hitting style of Fritz and Auger-Aliassime, both of whom are poor favourites and look opposable at the prices.</p><p>All in all, I would have had Evans closer to the prices of Paire, Edmund and Fritz at around 15 to 17, so at 23 he has some appeal and is my selection this week.</p><p><strong>Best Bet:</strong> Dan Evans at 23 with <a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="A+ Rated Bookmaker">Bet365</a></p></div>
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