ATP Chengdu Quarterfinals and WTA Wuhan Semifinals Best Tennis Bets and Predictions

Tennis Pilot

Thursday, September 26, 2019 7:23 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 26, 2019 7:23 PM UTC

In form Gerasimov can push Shapovalov to a tiebreak in favourable conditions

<div><h2>Egor Gerasimov vs Denis Shapovalov (8)</h2><p><strong>Friday, September 27, Chengdu</strong></p><p>We’re onto the quarter finals in Chengdu after another round of surprise results. This event has the highest underdog winning percentage on tour and yesterday saw the underdog win 5 of 8 matches. Top seed Isner was among the casualties losing in 3 tiebreaks to none other than Egor Gerasimov. The fiery Belarusian is at a career high of 98 and playing excellent tennis. I would expect him test Shapovalov and, given the serve oriented nature of both players, I’ve opted to back a tiebreak to be played in the match.</p><p>Shapovalov briefly made the top 20 earlier in August and at 20 years old he has a lot of upside. His game is based on power and he is serve oriented holding 82.5% and breaking 18.4% over the last year at main level. Tour average is 79.5% holds and 20.5% breaks. He is dangerous against anyone on his day but struggles to beat weaker opposition easily with 44% of his 45 matches priced 1.2 to 1.99 on indoor and outdoor hard featuring a tiebreak.</p><p>Gerasimov is 6’ 3” and has a similar, power-based style to Shapovalov. He too is serve orientated holding 83.8% and breaking 19.5% over the last year at main level. Generally, he plays his best tennis as the underdog and has a habit of keeping it tight with 52% of his last 50 priced 2 to 6 on indoor and outdoor hard featuring a tiebreak. Last week in St Petersburg he defeated a similar, serve orientated top 50 player Berrettini 7-6 7-6 before losing to Medvedev 7-5 7-5 and he defeated Isner in 3 tiebreaks yesterday without giving up a single break point.</p><p>Chengdu is at 500m altitude and has the 13th most tiebreak matches on tour at 44% so conditions should be favourable for service dominance. All things considered, I would have said odds on was fair (1.8-1.91) so at anything over evens it’s a bet and at 2.25 it is good value.</p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=153&amp;a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best bet: Tiebreak in Match: Yes at 2.25 with Betfair</strong></em></a></p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&amp;a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2>WTA Wuhan</h2><p><strong>Friday, September 27, Wuhan</strong></p><p>The semi-finals are upon us in Wuhan after a strong week for the daily bets. Riske got the job done comfortably at 2.75 against Wang winning 6-2 6-1 and last night she again caused an upset defeating Svitolina 6-1 6-3. The American next meets Kvitova while Barty and Sabalenka compete in the other half of the draw.</p><p>Barty is world number 1 and rightful favourite against Sabalenka. The Aussie’s rise to ascendancy over the last 12 months have seen her rack up a superb record in virtually all areas. On raw stats alone I would have made a 1.5 to 1.6 favourite rather than the 1.75 on offer but a few factors complicate matters. Firstly, Barty has not been in the best of form recently and seems to have latent fitness concerns. Her last four losses have come priced 1.1, 1.26, 1.27 and 1.3 and she has lost a set in 9 of her last 13 matches despite being priced sub 1.55 in every one. Secondly, Sabalenka is not a player to oppose when in form or in favourable conditions and she has an excellent record against top opposition. She won this event last year, defeating then 17 ranked Barty on the way and he has won 2 of 4 meetings overall. Her record priced as underdog against the top 10 is 5-7 with a 24.5% ROI and 10-11 against the top 20 for a 36.5% ROI. She has not looked her best this year but seems to have had a resurgence in the favourable conditions of Wuhan. Not a match I’m keen to get involved with at the prices all things considered.</p><p>Kvitova’s match is intriguing with Riske a dangerous opponent against the elite and in good form, but you have to feel she was helped by a poor performance from Svitolina in the last round. Kvitova has been excellent this week and is a two-time champion of this event. Despite an eyebrow raising H2H, Riske has a poor 5-17 record priced 3 to 6 against the top 10 for a -17.7% ROI. The American is not one to oppose as underdog especially given Kvitova’s injury issues but it is equally not an appealing spot to take on an in-form top 10 player and former champion.</p><p>I’m happy to take a pass on tomorrow’s matches and save our money for better opportunities.</p></div>
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