ATP China Open 2019 Outright Preview and Betting Predictions


Saturday, September 28, 2019 6:20 PM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 28, 2019 6:20 PM UTC

The ATP China Open draw has just been released, and we break it down to find the best outright selections in this prestigious ATP 500 tournament!

<div>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;🇬🇪 Nikoloz Basilashvili captures his second ATP World Tour 500 🏆 of 2018 in Beijing.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Read More ▶️ &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— ATP Tour (@ATP_Tour) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;October 7, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</div><div><h2>Trends and conditions:</h2><p>The ATP tour continues its Asian Swing, and heads to Beijing for the annual ATP 500 event. The tournament takes place at the same venue as the Women´s Premier Mandatory, the Beijing Olympic Green Tennis Center, built for the 2008 Olympic Games. With a plethora of players jockeying for the last four places in the Race to London, a lot is at stake here and the upcoming Shanghai Masters. It´s a 32-man draw with no byes, so after round 2, we get to the business end with the quarterfinals and beyond. Historically, the China Open has been a tournament dominated by the "Big Four" and Novak Djokovic in particular. The World no. 1 holds a staggering 6 titles at this event, all 6 coming within the last 10 years - and four of them in a row between 2012-2015.</p><p style="text-align:center"><a href=";a=9feaaf7a-d7a2-4185-974a-81ad171951df&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:970px;height:250px" /></a></p><p>Last year´s surprise Champion was Nikoloz Basilashvili, taking down Juan Martin Del Potro in the final to hoist his second ATP title. It should be noted that neither Djokovic, Nadal nor Murray was competing in that one though - and only Murray will turn up this year after just making a comeback from hip resurfacing. Played on a quick outdoor hard court, conditions favor power hitters and their game. But they also serve skilled counterpunchers well, as the ball comes at them with so much pace to work with, absorb and redirect. So who will hoist the trophy, and how will the $3,666,275 in prize money be split? Without further ado, let´s get into the draw!</p><h2>The Draw:</h2><div>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;ATP500 Beijing singles draw &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Michal Samulski (@MichalSamulski) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;September 28, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</div><p><strong>Quarter 1</strong></p><p><em>Projected quarterfinal if the seeds hold:</em> Dominic Thiem(1) vs. Matteo Berrettini(8)</p><p><em>Other notable players in the quarter:</em> Kyle Edmund, Christiaan Garin, Andy Murray(PR)</p><p>With Rafael Nadal nursing a hand inflammation, and Novak Djokovic electing to play in Tokyo, Dominic Thiem is our number 1 seed in this tournament. Dubbed the "Prince of Clay", the Austrian has had massive struggles winning outside of the red dirt. Even though this season has been better in that regard, winning Indian Wells, that´s one of the slowest and highest bouncing hard courts on tour. Remove that tournament, and Thiem´s hardcourt record stands at a meager 3-5 on the year.</p><p>The 26-year old has long windup off both wings and is prone to being rushed into errors on faster surfaces. This has become especially clear on these fast hardcourts during the Asian Swing, where Thiem is only 3-10 in his career, not even once winning back-to-back matches. Here in Beijing, the Austrian is 0-2, and though he hasn´t played here since 2016 - Dominic went 0-4 across the last two years on the Asian Swing. Facing a nightmare matchup in the first round in a resurgent Richard Gasquet, against whom he has an 0-2 record - expect the top seed to say his goodbyes immediately. Gasquet would then likely face Kyle Edmund, and though the Brit is on a four-match losing streak, he played well here to make the semis last year. Owning a 3-1 H2H record on the veteran Frenchman, Edmund may well find himself in a quarterfinal again here.</p><p>In the bottom half of the first quarter, US Open semifinalist sensation Matteo Berrettini stands tall. The big-serving Italian has risen to a career-high rank of world no. 13, and currently occupies the last qualification spot to London by an incredibly slim margin. With many hungry players chasing the 23-year old, he will want to go well here. That may be a challenging prospect though, as Andy Murray goes from strength to strength after hip resurfacing surgery. Much of the movement and overall level looks to have returned to the Brit, who played very well indeed in Zhuhai. There he took down Tennys Sandgren in 3 sets and pushed eventual finalist Alex de Minaur the full three sets. However, Murray´s goal, for now, is just to recapture his match fitness, and play as many matches as possible. This match should come a little bit too soon for the Brit after 5 hours on court in Zhuhai, and Berrettini should take advantage.</p><p>The second round opens up a match against Christian Garin, provided the Chilean overcomes a qualifier in round 1. Off a strong performance in fast conditions in Chengdu, the naturally aggressive clay courter may start to find his feet on hard courts. One would still have to favor the rising Italian though, and he should punch his ticket to the quarterfinals. In a matchup against Kyle Edmund, big ball-striking will be on display. Despite trailing the H2H 0-2, the pair played here in the second round last year, and Berrettini pushed Edmund to three tight sets. Since then, the world no. 13 has been the better player and should be favored to make the semifinals.</p><div>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;“Grazie NYC! 🙏 Unbelievable 2 weeks! Thank you guys for the amazing support, see you next year! &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;@RafaelNadal&lt;/a&gt; just too good 🙌.”&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;What a superb &lt;a href=\";amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#USOpen&lt;/a&gt; for the Italian! &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Take a bow, 🇮🇹 Matteo Berrettini 👏 &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— ATP Tour (@ATP_Tour) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;September 7, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</div><p><em>Predicted semifinalist:</em> Matteo Berrettini(8)</p><p><strong>Quarter 2</strong></p><p><em>Projected quarterfinal if the seeds hold:</em> Karen Khachanov4) vs. Fabio Fognini(6)</p><p><em>Other notable players in the quarter:</em> Grigor Dimitrov, Andrey Rublev, Mikhail Kukushkin</p><p>New father Karen Khachanov makes the trip to China, after being upset in his first match at home in St. Petersburg to Joao Sosa. That makes it a three-match losing streak for the Russian, whose form has been patchy all season long. However, with no serious points to defend in the Asian Swing, perhaps the world no. 21 can make a run here. Though surely out of contention in the race to London, gathering some form for his Moscow &amp; Paris Masters title defenses would do the 23-year old a lot of good. His first two round consist of either a pair of qualifiers, or a qualifier followed by Marco Cecchinato. With the Italian in woeful form all year, and never doing well in faster conditions, it looks a pretty straightforward path for Khachanov. The no. 4 seed should be very disappointed should he not make the quarterfinals with this draw.</p><p>In the bottom part of the second quarter stands Fabio Fognini. The world no. 12 became the oldest Top 10 debutant earlier this year, with the 32-year old Italian taking home the prestigious Monte Carlo Masters. While a massive threat on the red dirt, Fognini struggles on faster surfaces, sporting a career losing record on all three other surfaces - hard courts, indoor hard courts, and grass. Bothered by an ankle injury recently and losing feebly to Reilly Opelka in the first round of the US Open, the world no. 12 hasn´t been brilliant recently. After losing to Jack Sock at the Laver Cup, the Italian played an exhibition match against upcoming doubles partner Dominic Thiem in Wuhan just before the Women´s final. He won that contest 6-3, 3-6, 10-7, and also announced a split with 3-year coach Franco Davin at the end of the year.</p><p>Fognini´s opening match here could well be a tricky one, with Mikhail Kukushkin his slated opponent. The Kazakh´s flat hitting style tends itself well to faster surfaces, and though the pair is split 2-2 H2H, Kukushkin won the two non-clay matchups. While a challenging prospect, Fognini made the semifinal here last year and is well in contention in the race to London. A focused effort should see him through. In the second round, the winner of Grigor Dimitrov and Andrey Rublev awaits. Both players have been in excellent form recently, Dimitrov perhaps being the more likely opponent. The Bulgarian just made the US Open semifinal and is playing pain-free, and have won his two last matches against Rublev. Having reached the semifinal or better in two of the last three visits to Beijing, Dimitrov looks set to improve open his 4-2 H2H record against Fognini. On these fast courts, look for Dimitrov to make the quarters.</p><p>The matchup between Dimitrov and Khachanov is an interesting one, with the lone H2H-matchup being a grass exhibition match. Based on recent form though, and the Russian perhaps a bit distracted with the addition to his young family - Dimitrov may well have the edge. Playing very well even in a loss against eventual finalist Alexander Bublik in Chengdu, look for the Bulgarian to punch his ticket to the semis.</p><div>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"und\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;&lt;a href=\";amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#USOpen&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Grigor Dimitrov (@GrigorDimitrov) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;September 4, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</div><p><em>Predicted semifinalist:</em> Grigor Dimitrov</p><p><strong>Quarter 3</strong></p><p><em>Projected quarterfinal if the seeds hold:</em> Gael Monfils(7) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas(3)</p><p><em>Other notable players in the quarter:</em> John Isner, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Guido Pella</p><p>The third quarter is spearheaded by Gael Monfils, and the world no. 11 is rarely at his best in this part of the world. Some years even electing to skip the Asian Swing entirely, LaMonf is only 2-5 over his last three years. That includes 0-3 last year, and an upset loss against Albert Ramos-Vinolas, against whom he usually does well - in straight sets in Zhuhai. Under the tutelage of Liam Smith, the oft-injured and erratic Frenchman has had a great season with a Rotterdam title and 3 semifinals. He´ll need to draw upon that sort of form against his first-round opponent, John Isner. The big-serving American skipped the Asian Swing last year and started this year with an upset loss to Egor Gerasimov. Monfils holds a solid 7-4 H2H edge on Isner and should get through. In the second round, either a qualifier or Chinese wildcard Li Zhe would await, and neither should threaten Monfils to make the quarters in that contest.</p><p>The bottom half of the quarter is headlined by Next Gen star Stefanos Tsitsipas, currently one of the frontrunners for the final four spots in the Race to London. The world no. 6 is sixth in the race, and will want to do well here, after being forced to retire with breathing problems in Zhuhai. A known struggler in hot and humid conditions, the Greek won´t be happy about the forecasted 32-degree heat and over 50% humidity throughout the week. Having looked well below his best since a brutal five-set thriller loss against Wawrinka at Roland Garros, Tsitsipas starts off proceedings here against Dusan Lajovic. While the Serb blows hot and cold, he certainly enjoys the conditions here. The 29-year old has qualified to make the second round, and then quarterfinals in back-to-back years in 2017-2018. Tsitsipas should come through but has to be careful.</p><p>Proceedings get significantly tougher in the second round, as either the dangerous lefty Guido Pella, or the reigning champion Nikoloz Basilashvili await. The Georgian looked set for a disappointing year, before magically finding form to defend his Hamburg title in July. That sprung a couple of decent performances out of the explosive 27-year old, who looks set for an early return here. Having retired in Metz a week ago with a shoulder issue, Nikoloz should be fully fit to play, and would likely have too much for Guido Pella in that case. Tsitsipas and Basilashvili have faced off only once, and it was the Greek who emerged victorious at the Australian open by a 3-1 setline. However, defending his title seemed to make it all fall together for the Georgian in Hamburg, and if he can rekindle that sort of form - Basilashvili looks set for the upset.</p><p>Monfils won the lone H2H encounter with Basilashvili a year ago in Madrid, by a 2-1 scoreline. However, the Frenchman´s struggles in China are well documented, and assuming that the Georgian makes it this far, he'll have to have played well. Basilashvili to the semis.</p><div>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Georgia's Nikoloz Basilashvili claimed his second title of 2018 at the China Open.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;More: &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;October 7, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</div><p><em>Predicted semifinalist:</em> Nikoloz Basilashvili</p><p><strong>Quarter 4</strong></p><p><em>Projected quarterfinal if the seeds hold: </em>Roberto Bautista Agut(5) vs. Alexander Zverev(2) <em>Other notable players in the quarter:</em> Sam Querrey, Diego Schwartzman, Felix Auger Aliassime, Albert Ramos Vinolas(SE), Frances Tiafoe</p><p>In the final quarter, Roberto Bautista Agut leads the way. Wisely asking to leave a day earlier from Laver Cup duty, the extra preparation paid dividends in Zhuhai. In a week where many Laver Cup-participants struggled, the world no. 10 made the semifinals before a scintillating performance from Alex De Minaur stopped him abruptly. Unusually for a Spaniard, Agut enjoys faster conditions and hits a very flat ball, making it all the way to the Wimbledon semifinals earlier this year. The 31-year old is granted a much better first-round draw than last year(Alexander Zverev), facing up against big-serving Sam Querrey. Agut has been able to deal with the American well in the past and leads the H2H by 3-0. Querrey has been eliminated in the first round here two years on the spin, and look for the Spaniard to make it three.</p><p>Diego Schwartzman should wait in the second round, and "Peque" has evolved into more of an all-surface player with the years. Having a fairly underpowered serve, the faster surfaces have been able to grant him extra power, whilst still favoring his superb movement. The H2H record stands at 1-1 between the pair, Agut winning the last meeting convincingly in Montreal. On these faster courts, expect the Spaniard to improve his 7th position in the Race to London with a quarterfinal berth.</p><p>The bottom half of the final quarter is headlined by Alexander Zverev. Despite what has been seen by many as a disastrous season for the young German, he´s been able to make two Major quarterfinals - along with a Geneva title. While double faults and silly errors have materialized in a man devoid of confidence, Zverev did look better at the Laver Cup. Getting valuable advice from Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal did seem to help the 22-year old. Ranked 11th in the Race to London, the world no. 6 opens against Frances Tiafoe. The American however, has been out of sorts for most of the season, after a dream Australian Open quarterfinal run. In what was an absolutely bizarre match that went the distance, Zverev was able to improve his H2H to 4-1. Expect the German to struggle through again.</p><p>Felix Auger-Aliassime or Albert Ramos-Vinolas await in the second round. The promising young Auger-Aliassime has made waves in his first full year on the main tour, but his body seems to have reached its limit. Special exempt Ramos-Vinolas, who recently made the Zhuhai semifinals, could well take advantage. Zverev and Ramos haven´t faced since 2014, but many things have changed since the 17-year old German got smacked around that day. Holding the far superior firepower, expect the world no.6 to once again make it through, and set up a quarterfinal berth.</p><p>In that matchup, the unyielding, consistent Agut should be too much for the still struggling German. Much like Diego Schwartzman was able to take advantage of Zverev´s lapses at the US Open, the Spaniard will do the same. Agut to the semis.</p><div>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Tennis: Roberto Bautista Agut maintained his 100 per cent record against Andreas Seppi as he cruised into the semifinals of the Zhuhai Open &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Doordarshan Sports (@ddsportschannel) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;September 28, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</div><p><em>Predicted semifinalist:</em> Roberto Bautista Agut(5)</p><p><strong>The Verdict</strong></p><p>With Dominic Thiem a non-factor as the top seed, look for one of Kyle Edmund or Matteo Berrettini to take full advantage. The Italian´s attitude along with his big game has been especially impressive of late, and he has the credentials to go all the way here. At a price of 12, he is my first selection to win outright.</p><p>Grigor Dimitrov looks to have found himself out on the court again, and the former world no. 3 may have a tough draw, but on current form it´s not a tall order to get over the floundering Fabio Fognini or Karen Khachanov. Likely matching up against Berrettini in the semifinals, he is another one who could go all the way, and I´m happy to bet him outright at 15.</p><p>In the third quarter, there is certainly room for a fit and firing champion to find his Beijing groove once more. With Monfils´ weak China record, and Tsitsipas´ struggles both for form and in hot and humid conditions - Basilashvili could take advantage. At a very tempting price of 26, he is my third selection to win outright.</p><p><a href=";a=9feaaf7a-d7a2-4185-974a-81ad171951df&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:970px;height:250px" /></a></p><p>Finally, in the fourth quarter, Roberto Bautista Agut is in a great spot to outshine his out-of-form competitors. On current form, Diego Schwartzman looks the main threat, but Peque has a tough matchup against the Spaniard. To boot, he has never played a main draw match in this tournament. Zverev´s slump is finally starting to reflect in his prices, and at the same price, I´m happy to bet on Agut to win outright at 10.</p><p>Again, there were so many things to go into, but too little time (and space). If you have any questions regarding my selections, or anything tennis related, feel free to hit me up on Twitter [@SnizeMaster]. Thank you for being with me this far, and until next time, sayonara!</p><div>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Some strong sense of fashion among the ATP players too ;) 😎 Who’s rocking the jacket better? 🤔😉 Credit: VCG / China Open) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— China Open (@ChinaOpen) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;September 30, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</div><p><strong>Best bet:</strong> Matteo Berrettini to win outright at 12.0 (11/1) with [<a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bet365</a>] 0.25u<br /><strong>Best bet:</strong> Grigor Dimitrov to win outright at 15.0 (14/1) with [<a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bet365</a>] 0.25u<br /><strong>Best bet:</strong> Nikoloz Basilashvili to win outright at 26.0 (25/1) with [<a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bet365</a>] 0.25u<br /><strong>Best bet:</strong> Roberto Bautista Agut to win outright at 10.0 (9/1) with [<a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bet365</a>] 0.25u</p></div>
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