ATP Intrum Stockholm Open 2019 outright Preview and Betting Predictions

Snize

Sunday, October 13, 2019 5:00 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 13, 2019 5:00 PM UTC

The Stockholm Open draw has just been released, and we break it down to find the best outright selections for this year´s tournament!
<p><b>Trends and conditions</b></p><div><p>After a five week long Asian Swing, the ATP Tour returns to Europe for the fall indoor season, where it will also conclude the 2019 tennis year with the year-ending Championship in London. Stockholm Open in an ATP 250 tournament and was started in 1969, marking it the oldest indoor hard court tournament at its level. Countless legends of the game has partaken in this tournament in the Swedish capital, such as Rod Laver, Arthur Ashe, Björn Borg, John McEnroe, Boris Becker, Ivan Lendl and Roger Federer all appearing throughout the years.<br /><br />The 32-player draw gives the top 4 seeds a first round bye, meaning that only one win is needed for a quarterfinal berth for these players. With a prize pool of € 711,275 where € 109,590 goes to the winner, it´s been a good tournament for top seeds. In 7 of the last 9 years, they have either won it or made the final. For qualifiers it´s been rough going though, with last year´s finalist Ernests Gulbis being the first in 17 years to make it that far. Played on a Greenset indoor hard court, the conditions are blazing fast and set to mirror those we see in Shanghai, meaning players that do well in those conditions should also fare well here. Without further ado, let´s get into the draw!</p><p><b>The Draw</b></p><p><br />[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Stockholm Open singles &amp;amp; doubles draws &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/Vsyn7a1ov1\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/Vsyn7a1ov1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Michal Samulski (@MichalSamulski) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/MichalSamulski/status/1183064782569721859?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;October 12, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]<br /><br /><b>Quarter 1</b></p><p><br /><i>Projected quarterfinal if the seeds hold: </i>Fabio Fognini(1) vs. Reilly Opelka(6)<br /><br /><i>Other notable players in the quarter: </i>Elias Ymer(WC)<br /><br />Fabio Fognini is our number one seed in this tournament, after Juan Martin Del Potro who was slated to make his comeback here, withdrew. The 32-year old Italian has been in good touch as of late, after struggling for form and fitness over the North American hard court swing. Coming into Beijing, the flamboyant Fognini played well in reaching the quarterfinals before falling to Karen Khachanov. One week later at the Shanghai Masters, the world no.12 made the quarterfinals, losing to the eventual champion in Daniil Medvedev. Currently 310 points behind Matteo Berrettini bidding for the final spot in the Race to London, he still has plenty to play for here. In the second round, either French youngster Corentin Moutet or soon-to-be retired veteran Janko Tipsarevic await, both who should be no problem for Fognini.<br /><br />In the bottom section, Reilly Opelka stands tall. One of the tallest players on tour at 211cm, the thundering serve he possesses is naturally one of the very best on tour. Beyond that, the 22-year old is much more serviceable when the ball is in play than fellow giant John Isner, but the backhand wing and movement overall remains a weakness for the big American. Clay court specialist Stefano Travaglia awaits in the first round, and the battle of first time Stockholm contestants should go Opelka´s way. Special exempt Elias Ymer could await in the second round after making his return from elbow surgery, but the Swede has to go through what looks to be a lethal, higher ranked opponent in qualifier Tommy Paul. The American is one year younger, and more talented than Ymer who has stagnated a bit as of late, and should go through. Opelka has won the lone H2H meeting between the pair though, and is overall the more skilled and dangerous player in these conditions, expect him to get through.<br /><br />Fognini seldom enjoys a matchup against a big serving opponent, and the back-to-back semifinalist is in danger here. Losing comfortably to Opelka by a 3-1 scoreline at the US Open just a few months ago, a rematch in much quicker conditions should favor the big American. Look for him to make the semifinals here.<br /><br />[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Big day in the Big Apple for &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/ReillyOpelka?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@ReillyOpelka&lt;/a&gt; who defeated the No. 11 seed for his first &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/USOpen?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#USOpen&lt;/a&gt; victory! 🙌 &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/zXIXw3ZHSI\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/zXIXw3ZHSI&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Red Bull (@redbull) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/redbull/status/1166099943800524800?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;August 26, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]<br /><strong><i>Predicted semifinalist: </i></strong>Reilly Opelka(6)</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&amp;a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a><br /><br /><b>Quarter 2</b></p><p><br /><i>Projected quarterfinal if the seeds hold: </i>Denis Shapovalov(4) vs. Fernando Verdasco(7)<br /><br /><i>Other notable players in the quarter: </i>Marton Fucsovics, Mikael Ymer(WC), Joao Sousa<br /><br />One of the brigher prospects in recent years, much has been expected by Denis Shapovalov after his enormous breakthrough Montreal Masters semifinal run in 2017. The Canadian 20-year old plays with plenty of power and aggression, and can truly rip his one-handed backhand. It hadn´t been a great year for Shapovalov who fell off the map post making a Miami semifinal, but pairing up with new coach Mikhail Youzhny pre Winston Salem has done wonders. However, though sporting a big serve, the world no. 36 usually finds low bouncing indoor conditions too fast. With a long windup he can be rushed, and is only 7-11 in main draw indoors matches. Facing either Marton Fucsovics or a pesky qualifier in Alexei Popyrin/Yuichi Sugita won´t be a great joy for the 20-year old. Considering the Hungarian has struggled with leg pain as of late, it might well be a qualifier, and still a test that Shapovalov should pass.<br /><br />Fernando Verdasco still has one of the best forehands in the game, and his maximum capacity is incredibly high. Though the 35-year old has struggled as of late, the veteran who has never left the top 100 since his entry over 15 years ago can catch fire at any time. A serviceable indoors player in recent years by utilizing his serve-forehand combo, the Spaniard has gone well here in the past, reaching the semifinal in 2017. Verdasco starts off against qualifier Brayden Schnur, who shocked the world in making a maiden tour level final on this surface in New York early this year. He was also the first to arrive here in Stockholm and should be well accustomed to the surface. But since, the Canadian has gone 0-4 at tour level and not even qualified to most events, so Verdasco should come through here. In the second round, either scorching hot Mikael Ymer or Joao Sousa await. If back-to-back Challenger tour titles in France hasn´t exhausted the in-form Swede, he´ll be a tough test. A test I don´t think the 35-year old, who lost to an 18-year old Ymer in the first round here in 2016, can pass.<br /><br />Mikael Ymer has incredible defensive capabilities and a fantastic backhand wing. Rapidly improving on all surfaces, the 21-year old and world no. 81 has proven he can go toe to toe with the big guns on the Challenger tour. Overcoming a resurgent back-to-back titlist in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Orleans was mightily impressive, and like Tsonga, Shapovalov has poor defensive capabilites, especially on the backhand wing. Considering the Canadian´s 0-7 and 0-14 record at the semifinal level, he is rarely one to back when the deeper stages begin, and this time the in-form Swede likely makes sure he doesn´t even make it there.<br /><br />[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"sv\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Stort grattis säger vi till Mikael Ymer (&lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/MikaelYmer?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@MikaelYmer&lt;/a&gt; ) som vinner årets fjärde (!) Challengertitel! &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Ny karriärhögsta ranking på #75 dessutom! 🔥&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Mikael går inför &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/IntrumSthlmOpen?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@IntrumSthlmOpen&lt;/a&gt; in i tävlingen med 12 raka vinster på Challengertouren! &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/MikaelYmer?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#MikaelYmer&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/xQQKNYLb3P\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/xQQKNYLb3P&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Tennisportalen (@tennisportalen) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/tennisportalen/status/1183417628385337345?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;October 13, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]<br /><br /><strong><i>Predicted semifinalist: </i></strong>Mikael Ymer(WC)</p><p><br /><br /><b>Quarter 3</b></p><p><br /><i>Projected quarterfinal if the seeds hold: </i>Daniel Evans(8) vs. Taylor Fritz(3)<br /><br /><i>Other notable players in the quarter: </i>Filip Krajinovic, Radu Albot<br /><br /><br />Daniel Evans is probably more known for his off-court antics than his play on court at this point. Notably suspended for a full year following drug use, the Brit has played well in his comeback season, with two Challenger titles on grass and an ATP final in Delray Beach. Now ranked near his career high of 43, Evans is a skilled attacker and possesses a devious sliced backhand. His defensive capabilites are a bit weak however, and he´s only 3-3 at main level on indoor hard courts. In the first round, the Brit faces off against the enigmatic Bernard Tomic. The big serving Aussie is well known for wasting away his talent, and if it´s not for a lacklustre performance(to put it mildly), it´s an injury hampering him. Evans should go through and then likely faces a stern assessment in Filip Krajinovic. A 2017 Paris Masters finalist, the Serb thrives on indoor hard couts, and though mental fragility is a concern he should have far too much pedigree for Evans here.<br /><br />In the bottom half, Taylor Fritz is our big seed. The American is one of the brightest young prospects, with a respectable all-around game. Something that separates him from the mold of big serving, big forehand, weak backhand and poor moving type of player that we usually see out of USA. Fritz has had a great year, winning his maiden ATP title in Eastbourne, and has propelled himself up to a rank of world no.29. However, the 21-year old has looked vulnerable post his Los Cabos final in August, going 1-6 in main draw matches since. That includes a five-match losing streak that Fritz only barely overcame against an out-of-form Verdasco last week in Shanghai. His 9-9 main level indoor record will be put to the test immediately, as the lively Radu Albot likely awaits. The Moldovan was soundly beaten by the American in Los Cabos, but with Fritz floundering he may well get revenge here.<br /><br />Whoever emerges should have a too tough time of it all against Filip Krajinovic however. Truly a bit of an indoors specialist, as long as the Serb can keep his own inner demons at bay he´s a candidate for the title this week, he should emerge victorious.<br /><br />[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;7-5 6-3 win Over Isner&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Krajinovic is there!&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Idemo Nole. &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/sOyNjYfpq9\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/sOyNjYfpq9&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Serve Fault🐊 (@serviserror) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/serviserror/status/1182211355778195456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;October 10, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]<br /><strong><i>Predicted semifinalist: </i></strong>Filip Krajinovoic</p><p><br /><br /><b>Quarter 4</b></p><p><br /><i>Projected quarterfinal if the seeds hold: </i>Pablo Carreno-Busta(5) vs. Grigor Dimitrov(2)<br /><br /><i>Other notable players in the quarter: </i>John Millman, Sam Querrey<br /><br /><br />Pablo Carreno-Busta headlines the last quarter, and it´s been a season of resurgence to form for the Spaniard. Formerly a top-10 player, Busta has struggled with a right shoulder injury that saw him miss most of the first half of the season. The 28-year old has picked up his form since though, recently claiming the title in the fast Chengdu conditions. However, he´s not a great indoors player as the Spaniard lacks powerful weapons, and has only gone 13-18 at main level in his career. That record will be tested immediately as John Millman awaits in the first round. An unyielding, battling Aussie who lacks weapons himself, he´s been in great form as of late, making the Tokyo final. Expect a brutal baseline battle, and though Busta has a poor indoors record, so does his opponent and the better player will prevail. In the second round, Pablo Andujar or a qualifier awaits, and again it´s a matchup between baseline grinders without pronounced big weapons. Again the better player in either case would be the world no. 37 and he should get through.<br /><br />Lastly, Grigor Dimitrov is the big seed in the lower section of the last quarter. It´s truly been a brutal year for the former world no. 3, struggling for both confidence and fitness after a troublesome right shoulder injury. Finally playing pain free, the Bulgarian found some amazing form during the US Open, defeating Roger Federer enroute to a semifinal appearance. Though he has a great record here as a 2016 semifinalist and 2017 winner, that US Open form has eluded the world no. 27 as of late. Going 1-2 during the Asian Swing in non-impressive fashion makes you question whether that was a one off. Starting proceedings against the likely opponent in Sam Querrey will be tough. However, the big American hasn´t been in great form, nor does he have a good record here going 0-2. On top, Dimitrov has won all three H2H matches and should solve the big serving puzzle again.<br /><br />The H2H matchup between Pablo Carreno-Busta and Grigor Dimitrov has painted a pretty clear picture of how this one should play out. Splitting their 6 main level H2H-meetings, the Spaniard has won all four matchups on the red dirt in straight sets. However, the bigger weapons belong to the Bulgarian, who has won the other two matchups that were both played on indoor hard courts. Dimitrov to the semis.<br /><br />[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;&lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/IntrumSthlmOpen?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@IntrumSthlmOpen&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/GrigorDimitrov?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@GrigorDimitrov&lt;/a&gt; someone is getting ready to win matches! &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/qHeTFJeflP\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/qHeTFJeflP&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Daniel Djenev (@dido404) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/dido404/status/1182318088223707136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;October 10, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]<br /><strong><i>Predicted semifinalist: </i></strong>Grigor Dimitrov(2)<br /><br /><br /><b>The Verdict</b></p><p>While Fognini has a great record here, he comes in off a groin problem sustained in the matchup against Medvedev in Shanghai. The long trip and short turnaround may trouble the Italian priced at 6, as does a matchup with Reilly Opelka who looks the value in the top quarter. In the other quarter of the top half, both big seeds in Shapovalov (priced 6.50) and Verdasco(priced 15) look vulnerable, and if Mikael Ymer has gas left in the tank, he looks to have a very decent shot indeed. I could well see either Opelka or Ymer reach the finals and take the title here, and at bigger prices than the big seeds at 11 and 34 respectively, those will be my fancies there.<br /><br />In the bottom half, we again have two very vulnerable seeds in Evans and Fritz. Both have poor indoor records measured up against their pricing at 11, and have tricky draws to boot. While Grigor Dimitrov has the draw and pedigree to make the semifinals, he hasn´t shown his US Open form to be more than a one time thing yet, and looks very short indeed priced at 6. Filip Krajinovic has exceptional indoors capabilities, and priced at 15 he´ll be my third and final selection.<br /><br /><br />As per usual, there were so many things to go into, but too little time (and space). If you have any questions regarding my selections, or anything tennis related, feel free to hit me up on Twitter [@SnizeMaster]. Thank you for being with me this far, and until next time, hejdå!<br /><br />[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Welcome to Intrum Stockholm Open, one of the most prestigious indoor events on the ATP Tour. Find out more about the classic tennis tournament here ➡️ &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/sT5yGHekNl\"&gt;https://t.co/sT5yGHekNl&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/DkLMuvpQX7\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/DkLMuvpQX7&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Visit Stockholm (@visitstockholm) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/visitstockholm/status/1182627092644675586?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;October 11, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]<br /><b>Best bet: Reilly Opelka to win outright at 11 (10/1) with [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Well rated bookmaker">Unibet</a>] </b>0.5u<br /><b>Best bet: Mikael Ymer to win outright at 34 (33/1) with [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Well rated bookmaker">Unibet</a>] </b>0.25u<br /><b>Best bet: Filip Krajinovic to win outright at 15 (14/1) with [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Well rated bookmaker">Unibet</a>] </b>0.5u</p></div>
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