Can indoors specialist Filip Krajinovic overcome a tough test in the in-form Pablo Carreno-Busta to reach his second final in 2019?
<div><h2><strong>Filip Krajinovic vs. Pablo Carreno-Busta(5)</strong></h2><h2> </h2><p><strong>Saturday, October 19, Stockholm</strong><br /><br />It´s been a bright showing this week for the Serbian players in Stockholm, with both the legendary Janko Tipsarevic and Filip Krajinovic making the quarterfinals. For the latter, the indoor hard court season has been a revelation. A finalist in the Paris Masters as little as two years ago, Krajinovic possesses plenty of indoor pedigree. Backed by a solid serve and baselining game, the 27-year old Serb loves stepping into the court and dominating points with his big forehand.<br /><br />In the quarterfinal, Filip faced off against the dangerous underdog Nishioka Yoshihito. The Japanese Ace had previously upset big hitting Taylor Harry Fritz in straight sets, frustrating the world no. 29 into copious amounts of errors. In this affair however, it became apparent from the get go that Yoshihito would struggle. Usually, what the 24-year old lacks in power he makes up for with incredible court coverage, but that did not reap him any profits against the on-song Serb. Krajinovic would step into the court as soon as the world no. 74 lost depth, and generally dominated proceedings behind his considerably stronger serve and groundstrokes. Overcoming a slow start where he was broken in the first game, the indoor specialist would quickly break back and never looked back from there, winning the opener 6-3. Nishioka was broken two more times in the second set, and the Serb could even afford to drop serve whilst trying to serve it out at 5-2 up in the second set, which he later wrapped up by a 6-4 scoreline.<br /><br />A mucher sterner test awaits in the semifinal, as Pablo Carreno-Busta stands for the opposition. It only about two years ago that the 28-year old Spaniard was ranked world no. 10, but has since dropped off. Much of it was due to a shoulder injury keeping him limited throughout the first half of the 2019 season. This caused a drop off in ranking down to world no. 69, but Busta would find his form over the fall season, making the Last 16 in Cincinnati as a qualifier. He followed that up with making the third round of US Open, and then claimed a first ATP title since 2017 on the lively outdoor hard courts of Chengdu.</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a><br /><br />Indoors tennis hasn´t been a fruitful endeavor for the Spaniard however. Going into yesterday´s quarterfinal against big serving Sam Querrey, Busta had only put together a 14-18 record with a measly hold/break total - for a player of his caliber, of 93.8. Already challenged by Gianluca Mager in the round prior, it looked a tough outing for the 28-year old. Starting off a bit tight, he would be broken in his first service game, and forced to stave off four break points for a first set double break deficit. Querrey would give the break back, but still close out the first set 6-4. But Busta started to click into gear from the second set onwards, bettering his 65% first serve points won in the first set to 87% in the second set. Clinical as can be, the world no. 35 opened up two break point opportunities and took both enroute to a 6-1 second set. Carried by a supportive Swedish crowd, another immediate break of serve would follow, which was protected throughout the whole set, saving one final break point whilst serving for the match.<br /><br />Pablo Carreno Busta described this as matchup between two similar player types in his postmatch interview, and that is certainly the case here. Both players are adept baseliners, and love to step in and take control of the rallies whenever possible. It´ll likely come down to who acquits themselves best on the day, committing the fewest unforced errors whilst staying in front of the lengthy rallies to follow. The pair have no meetings on the ATP level, and the two Challenger meetings on clay going back over 4 years ago don´t give us much information. For what it´s worth however, both meetings went the distance, and that is a highly probable outcome here.<br /><br />Busta starts as the favourite behind his 1.4% H/B edge in 2019 overall, and 51 point hard court ELO edge. However, while he has been impressive, the Spaniard has still not shown the sort of indoor hard court pedigree of his opponent. The smaller difference in overall numbers is mostly negated by the Serb´s surface advantage. I also feel he´s been playing the more impressive tennis overall throughout the week, and seems to enjoy his status as one of the fan favourites in Stockholm. All things considered, making Krajinovic this big of an underdog seems excessive, and at a 2.28 underdog price with Pinnacle we´ll invest in the indoors specialist here.<br /><br /><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><strong><em>Best bet: Krajinovic to win at 2.28 (32/25) with [Pinnacle] 1.5u</em></strong></a></p></div>