ATP Rolex Shanghai Masters Day 4 & WTA Tianjin Day 3 Best Tennis Bets

Tennis Pilot

Tuesday, October 8, 2019 7:22 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2019 7:22 PM UTC

Isner is likely to conjure up tiebreaks against Pouille in quick conditions
<div><h2>Lucas Pouille vs John Isner</h2><p><a href="" target="_blank" title="Game Odds"><strong>Wednesday, October 9, Shanghai</strong></a></p><p>We’re on a nice little streak currently with 5 wins from the last 5 bets and hopefully we can maintain form on day 4 of the Shanghai Masters. Isner is an extremely serve orientated player leading to a very high number of tiebreaks. In quick conditions I would expect that trend to continue against Pouille.</p><p>John Isner is 6’ 10” and has arguably the best serve on tour, perhaps behind Karlovic. His game is based around first strike tennis off his own serve and taking any chance he can get on return. Against most top quality opposition he is simply too poor on return to break frequently, but only a small handful of players can break Isner much if at all. The result is a lot of tiebreaks.</p><p>His hold/break stats on hard point to this tendency with Isner holding 93.8% over the last year but breaking just 9.3% and playing 0.48 tiebreaks per set. Tour average is 79.6% holds and 0.2 tiebreaks per set on hard courts. Isner is priced 1.66 in this match and priced 1.5 to 1.99 he has played 32 first set tiebreaks in his last 50 matches including 13 of his last 20.</p><p>Pouille is 24 in the world and should be comfortable favourite from the baseline against Isner. He’s held serve 82.2% over the last year at main level and broken 16.9% so he is somewhat serve orientated making him a good candidate for tiebreaks. The two have never met so it is likely they will need some time to get used to each other especially Pouille.</p><p>Shanghai has had 3.3% more holds and 8.9% more tiebreaks than the hard court average over the last 3 years making it one of the fastest and best events for tiebreaks.</p><p>All in all, I would price this between 1.8 and 2. It’s an easy bet at anything 2.2+.</p><p><strong>Best Bet</strong>: Set 1 Total Games: Over 12.5 at 2.4 with <a href=";a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Join Unibet Today!">Unibet</a> [1u]</p><p><a href=";a=9feaaf7a-d7a2-4185-974a-81ad171951df&amp;f=3"><img alt src="" style="width:100%;height:12px" /></a></p><h2>Rebecca Peterson vs Xinyu Wang</h2><p><a href="" target="_blank" title="Game Odds"><strong>Wednesday, October 9, Tianjin</strong></a></p><p>We’re into the round of 16 at the Tianjin Open with 4 matches on the card for Wednesday. It’s been a tough week for underdog backers at this event with just 2 wins from 20 matches so far in the main draw. Value looks thin on the ground once again and I’ll take just a small bet hoping for the trend of favourites dominating to continue.</p><p>Peterson is a consistent performer on tour and she has had a solid 2019, most notably winning her maiden main level title in Nanchang a month ago. She can struggle at times against top quality opposition, but her mental consistency leads to excellent results as favourite. She’s won 41 of her last 50 priced under 2 for a 18.9% ROI including 9 of her last 10. The last time she lost to a player ranked as low or lower than Wang (162) was February 2018. Hard courts are her best surface and she has won 16 of 20 as favourite on hard in 2019. She had a strong opening round win over Venus Williams priced 1.9 and looks comfortable in the conditions.</p><p>Wang is a young player with a lot of potential but she has failed to test top quality opposition so far in her career. She is 4-13 as underdog for a -35.7% ROI and 0-7 against the top 100 (1-13 in sets). Peterson is ranked 57. Today’s handicap line of -4.5 games handicap would have won or been returned in 6 of the 7. This week she lost in qualifying priced 1.8 to 161 ranked Xiyu Wang before being awarded a lucky loser spot and winning her opening round against an unranked player. Last week she lost 6-1 6-2 priced 2.75 against Yafan Wang and 4 of her last 5 losses have come by 5 or more games.</p><p>I would expect Peterson to be too solid for the youngster and until Wang shows she can contend with top quality opposition I’m happy to take her on. Even so, the price doesn’t scream value so it’s just half stakes on this second selection.</p><p><strong>Best Bet:</strong> Rebecca Peterson -4.5 games at 1.66 with <a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="A+ Rated Bookmaker!">Bet365</a> [0.5u]</p></div>
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