ATP St. Petersburg and WTA Osaka Day 2 Best Tennis Bets and Predictions

Tennis Pilot

Monday, September 16, 2019 6:49 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 16, 2019 6:49 PM UTC

Indoor specialist Berankis can cover the handicap against declining veteran Sela

<div><h2>Dudi Sela vs Ricardas Berankis</h2><p><strong>Tuesday, September 17, St Petersburg</strong></p><p>This is an intriguing match-up with Sela, a crafty veteran, and Berankis, one of the punchiest, most aggressive baseliners around. I can’t rule out the intelligence and guile of Sela but at 34 he is clearly on the decline, while Berankis has put in another excellent season, especially on indoor hard.</p><p>Both players are small at 5’ 9” and 5’ 8” respectively and naturally return orientated. Combined with the slow conditions in St Petersburg, I would expect a minus games handicap or under bet to be the way to go. Several factors suggest Berankis will be too much for Sela on current form and we can get 1.91 on -3.5 games, which is my pick.</p><p>To start, raw stats give Berankis a solid edge. Berankis has a hold/break of 120.6% in Challenger level indoor hard events over the last 12 months. Sela is on 109.1 meaning a 11.5% difference to the favourite’s advantage. Berankis has won 72% of his last 50 matches on indoor hard for a 17.9% ROI. Sela by contrast has won 50% of his last 50 on indoor hard for a -6.4% ROI. Odds specific stats are also supportive. Priced 1.2 to 1.99, Berankis has covered the -3.5 games handicap in 19 of his 29 matches since the start of 2018 suggesting odds of 1.53. Priced 3 to 6 against the top 100, Sela has not covered the games handicap in 7 of his last 10 matches going back to 2016 (one void and 6 wins).</p><p>The H2H is not supportive, with just one win for this handicap in six matches, but their last match was 2017 and 3 come from 2015 or earlier. In 5 of those matches Sela was the favourite, whereas today he is 3.4, highlighting his dip in quality over the last couple of seasons. I don’t think we can take very much from the H2H with any confidence.</p><p>Nothing stands out as huge value but most everything points to a Berankis win and given conditions and playing styles, I’m happy taking a chance on the games handicap.</p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=a710bfac-73c1-4a57-b441-2caf1b9f397b&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best Bet: Ricardas Berankis -3.5 games at 1.91 with William Hill</strong></em></a></p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&amp;a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2>Garbine Muguruza vs Su-Wei Hsieh</h2><p><strong>Tuesday, September 17, St Petersburg</strong></p><p>At first glance Muguruza might look too long here as a former world number 1 and grand slam champion. Hsieh, while a crafty, unique top 30 player, lacks the exceptional peak of Garbine. Yet, in day to day matches it is clear that Hsieh is the more reliable, adaptable and valuable player to back and she is my selection today.</p><p>Muguruza can be formidable and if she plays anywhere near her peak it will be curtains but several factors suggest she is a false favourite. To start, Hsieh leads the combined service/return won percentage by 2.3% over the last 12 months at main level. Both have won 58% of matches over the last 12 months but while Muguruza has a -17% ROI you would have made 3% following Hsieh blind. More importantly, Hsieh has won 25 of her last 50 as underdog for a 24.2% ROI and 8 of 12 this year priced 2 to 2.99 on hard courts for a 53.2% ROI. Muguruza has won 30 of her last 50 as favourite for a -19% ROI and 1 of 7 this year priced 1.5 to 1.99 including losing her last 5 in a row going back to January. The H2H is not hugely relevant but it is eye catching as Hsieh defeated Muguruza 7-6 6-4 at the 2018 Australian Open priced 6.5.</p><p>Hsieh plays an unorthodox, unique style based almost entirely on disrupting her opponent’s rhythm. Muguruza is a player very susceptible to this game as she is power orientated and can easily lose her range and focus in matches. That is what happened in Australia and we have seen Hsieh tame many a big hitting, high peak player especially in the non-major events where top opposition are less likely to be at their peak.</p><p>Again, nothing really stands out as huge value in Osaka, but I think this is 50/50 at worst so I’m happy taking odds against.</p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=a710bfac-73c1-4a57-b441-2caf1b9f397b&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best Bet: Su-Wei Hsieh to win at 2.2 with William Hill</strong></em></a></p><div> </div><div> </div></div>
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