ATP St. Petersburg and WTA Osaka Day 4 Best Tennis Bets and Predictions

Tennis Pilot

Wednesday, September 18, 2019 7:47 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 18, 2019 7:47 PM UTC

Out of form Bertens looks short to defeat hard court specialist Pavlyuchenkova

<div><h2>Ricardas Berankis vs Andrey Rublev</h2><p>Thursday, September 18, St Petersburg</p><p>Rublev is playing at home but I’m not convinced he’ll be able to please the crowd against a dangerous indoor hard specialist. Berankis has a hyper aggressive style and a history of pushing the top players. Rublev has a similar all out aggressive style but often lacks the consistency to beat lower ranked opposition. I would expect this to be an entertaining, high tempo match with lots of winners (and unforced errors) and I’ll take the underdog at 3.31.</p><p>Rublev is a rising star of the game and can give anyone a match on his day but his all-out attack doesn’t lend itself to consistency against weaker opposition. He has an excellent 32.7% ROI in 2019 yet when priced as the favourite he has a -16% ROI and his lifetime ROI as favourite is -11.4%.</p><p>He clearly plays his best in the big moments and has a tendency to get flustered when his game goes off against weaker opponents. In the first round this trend continued with Rublev losing the first set and being a break down in the decider priced 1.4 against Ivashka.</p><p>Berankis is nearing a veteran of the game at 29 and an indoor specialist with a consistent history of pushing the top players on this surface. His game is hyper aggressive so it makes sense that indoor hard would suit and he’s won 44% of his last 50 as underdog on the surface for a 30.6% ROI including winning 6 of his last 10 for a 52.2% ROI. At main level only he has won 19 of 39 as underdog for a 52.8% ROI including an excellent run in Moscow at the end of last year where he eventually lost 6-2 1-6 6-4 to Medvedev in the quarter final.</p><p>The price opened between 2.75 and 3 with most books. My price range would have been 2.5 to 2.75 so at 3.27 it’s clear value.</p><p><a href=";a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best Bet: Ricardas Berankis at 3.27 with Pinnacle</strong></em></a></p><p><a href=";a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2>Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Kiki Bertens</h2><p><strong>Thursday, September 18, Osaka</strong></p><p>Two players who know each other well with similar styles and I would argue this is being price up based too heavily on longer term raw data. Immediate form and conditions suggest this is more of a coin flip and I’m happy taking a chance on the underdog.</p><p>Bertens is a top 10 player and on best form this would be a fair price if not too long. She leads the 1-year hold/break stats and has won a higher percentage of matches on a hard court. These raw stats are probably the main reason for the price, but a few factors suggest it is wrong.</p><p>Bertens does her best work on the red dirt and her worst on hard courts with a 17-13 record over the last 12 months on the surface for a -24.2% ROI. She is priced 1.7 for this match and as a slight favourite on hard courts (1.5-1.99) she has won just 22 of her last 50 for a -25.7% ROI and just 2 of her 6 over the last 12 months for a -47% ROI.</p><p>Perhaps more importantly, her immediate form is very poor with just 2 wins from her last 6 matches with all 4 losses coming priced between 1.44 to 1.5. Last out she lost to Tomljanovic 6-4 7-6. Pavlyuchenkova has already played a match winning comfortably as underdog against Yastremska while Bertens has not yet played. It’s hard to beat top opposition at the best of times but with no warmup match and poor immediate form Bertens may find it very hard to get into her stride.</p><p>Pavlyuchenkova by contrast is a hard-court specialist and while she is not in her best form this year overall, she has still impressed on the hard courts and her opening round was very promising. Priced as the underdog on hard courts she has won 23 of her last 50 matches for a 15.3% ROI including 6 of her last 10 for a 73.1% ROI and 4 of 6 in 2019. The H2H is 5-2 to Bertens but 3 of those matches were 2016 or earlier. Since 2018 they are 2-2 and overall on hard courts they are 2-2. At the minute I would almost expect Bertens to lose this match but in reality, I would price this 1.9 to 2.1.</p><p><a href=";a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best Bet: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to win at 2.38 with Betfair</strong></em></a></p><p> </p><div> </div><div> </div></div>
comment here