ATP St. Petersburg and WTA Osaka Finals Best Tennis Bets and Predictions

Tennis Pilot

Sunday, September 22, 2019 12:02 AM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 22, 2019 12:02 AM UTC

In form Pavlyuchenkova can make Osaka feel the pressure at home

<div><h2>Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova</h2><p>Sunday, September 22, Osaka</p><p>Home hope and tournament namesake Naomi Osaka has looked very solid this week and perhaps she will land her first tournament in Japan. Her previous 3 attempts have been in vain most recently priced 1.4 in Tokyo and perhaps nerves will play a part in this match. Pavlyuchenkova has been on fire and will certainly be happy to take advantage if nerves or a slow start hinder the favourite. Regardless, she has been excellent against the elite and looks value to continue that trend in this match.</p><p>Osaka has looked focused this week, but her power orientated, big hitting game is vulnerable to inconsistency and she has a history of struggling to dismiss top quality opposition. Pavlyuchenkova is ranked 41 and playing top 20 tennis this week. Osaka priced as the favourite against the top 50 has won 54% of matches lifetime for a -8.9% ROI and just 5 of her last 10 for a -17% ROI. In just semis and finals, she is 3-4 for a -18.5% ROI so it seems she’s as likely to get nervy as to have played herself into form.</p><p>Pavlyuchenkova by contrast has no pressure on her at all and comes into this match playing superb tennis all week. We had a handy 2.38 winner on the Russian against Bertens and she is yet to drop a set despite being underdog in 3 of her 4 matches. She is a hard-court specialist and has an excellent 15.9% lifetime ROI as underdog on the surface. More notably, she has won 12 of her 24 matches priced 2 to 2.99 on hard courts against the top 10 for a 30.4% ROI including 3 of her 4 over the last 12 months. I have to imagine she will really fancy herself in this final and I would give her every chance on current form.</p><p>If Naomi is able to maintain her level, she will be tough to beat, but in all likelihood, there will be at least some nerves and on balance I would have said 2.4 to 2.5 makes sense. At 2.8 she’s a bet in what I expect to be a high-quality match.</p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=153&amp;a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best bet: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova at 2.8 with Betfair</strong></em></a></p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&amp;a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2>Daniil Medvedev vs Borna Coric</h2><p>Sunday, September 22, St Petersburg</p><p>If you’d told me the price of this final a year ago, I would have been surprised to see Medvedev as the 1.2 favourite against Coric, but here we are and at this moment in time I have to say it makes at least some sense.</p><p>The Russian has won 23 of 26 matches since Wimbledon with two of those losses coming against Rafa and while his level has looked a little tamer this week he has still got the job done without dropping a set. We went with 2-1 to the Russian last out against Gerasimov and were a tad unlucky with Medvedev winning 7-5 7-5 but it again highlights his excellent play under pressure and ability to maintain his level over a match. He has won 84% of his matches when priced as favourite over the last 12 months and 18 in a row priced sub 1.5 going back to June so Coric has his work cut out for him.</p><p>Coric has looked below his best this week struggling through in 3 sets in all 3 of his matches. On that form he has little chance and while he has improved over the week, he is really relying on raising his game for the final. In fairness, that is something Coric has a history of doing and his record against the top 10 is good, so it seems foolish to dismiss the Croat, but I have no interest in siding against Medvevdev anytime soon.</p><p>Nothing appeals from a betting perspective. The big question is whether Coric can rise to the occasion and end Medvedev’s ridiculous run of form. My guess would be no, but I wouldn’t want to rule out a sudden burst of form, so I’ll just watch with interest from the side-lines.</p></div>
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