ATP St. Petersburg and WTA Osaka Semis Best Tennis Bets and Predictions

Tennis Pilot

Friday, September 20, 2019 10:20 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 20, 2019 10:20 PM UTC

In form Gerasimov can push a fatigued Medvedev to a deciding set

<div><h2>Daniil Medvedev vs Egor Gerasimov</h2><p>Saturday, September 21, St Petersburg</p><p>A major question coming into this week was whether Medvedev would be able to maintain anything like his recent level after a brutal few weeks of tennis. So far the answer has been yes with 2 straight sets wins, though I would argue he hasn’t looked quite as comfortable as in recent weeks. I would expect him to come through the match once again but I’m happy to take a chance that in form, indoor hard specialist Gerasimov will be able to expose any latent fatigue and push Medvedev to a decider.</p><p>Medvedev is the story of 2019, at least since Wimbledon and, as I have pointed out before, he tends to crush weaker opposition. His record as a short-priced favourite is excellent and he generally wins in straight sets, as he has in both matches this week. That is the major hurdle to this bet, and it would not be surprising to see him win this in straight. However, a couple of factors make me lean towards the 2-1 over 2-0.</p><p>The main factor is that Gerasimov is an indoor hard specialist in excellent form with a history of pushing top players. Last round he defeated world number 13 Berrettini 7-6 7-6 and he has a 50% ROI as underdog on indoor hard. He only has 5 matches against the top 50 on indoor hard but he has lost in 3 sets in 3 of those matches. I would expect him to at least put up a fight and while I can’t bring myself to oppose Medvedev directly, I would not expect him to have everything his own way.</p><p>The second factor is that both H2H matches were in the last year and ended 2-1 to Medvedev 7-6 3-6 6-3 and 6-7 6-3 6-3, both indoors. It can be argued that Medvedev is playing better tennis now than he was then, but I would argue his level this week is a slight dip from recent from and so is comparable.</p><p>All in all, this seems like a sensible play on a day with very little standing out as value. I was tempted to go with the 2-0 hoping his recent form and trends continue but, given his form this week has not been quite as clinical and there are obvious fatigue issues, 1.57 seems like little value and a much riskier play than taking a chance on the longer odds option.</p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best Bet: Daniil Medvedev to win 2-1 at 4.33 with Bet365</strong></em></a></p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&amp;a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2>WTA Osaka</h2><p><strong>Saturday, September 21, Osaka</strong></p><p>I’ve enjoyed a good week on the women’s side with two bets and two wins at 2.2 and 2.38. It’s tempting to go for the trio, but nothing stands out as clear value for Saturday’s matches and I think we’re best keeping our powder dry.</p><p>The highlight is Naomi Osaka’s match against Yulia Putintseva where the home hope is bidding to make her fourth semi final of 2019. This is an intriguing match up with Osaka the clear favourite based on any metric or raw data but surprisingly she trails the H2H 0-3 with all 3 matches coming since 2018. Not only that but she has yet to win a set and lost 7-6 6-2 and 6-2 6-3 their two meetings of 2019. Putintseva is 5’ 1” and relies on cunning and guile to win her matches. Usually she struggles against the elite who simply overpower her and expose obvious vulnerabilities on serve but she has been able to get under Osaka’s skin so far. It’s difficult to guess whether that trend will continue and while the 2-0 at 4.6 appeals based on the H2H the picture is mixed overall and this seems a match best left alone.</p><p>Mertens takes on Giorgi in what should be a tight contest. I would expect Mertens’ superior calibre to shine through based on peak and immediate form but it’s hard to bet on a player who shows so much inconsistency. If she were longer in the prices I might take a chance but against a quality opponent in solid form she seems about right at 1.6.</p><p>The postponed, incomplete match between Doi and Pavlyuchenkova will resume at 0-2 and I would expect the favourite to come through here, especially with the head start. Doi is not a player I’m keen to bet against as underdog but Pavlyuchenkova is in excellent form this week so again there seems little value to be had in the match.</p></div>
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