ATP Tour Swiss Indoors Basel Outright

Tennis Pilot

Sunday, October 20, 2019 5:11 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 20, 2019 5:11 PM UTC

Swiss maestro Federer is likely to continue his dominant form indoors in Basel.
<div><h2><strong>Swiss Indoors Basel</strong></h2><p><a href="" target="_blank" title="Atp Basel Switzerland - Live Betting Odds"><strong>Monday, October 21, Basel</strong></a></p><p>We are onto week 43 of the ATP Tour and in Switzerland for the Swiss Indoors, Basel. Last week we had a decent run for our money with Alexandrova who lost out in the quarter final to Muchova, while over in Stockholm there was more success with Snize’s tip Krajinovic making the final.</p><p> </p><h2>History &amp; Context</h2><p>The Swiss Indoors is one of the oldest events on tour, created in 1970 by Roger Brennwald, and since 1995 it has been held annually at the St. Jakobshalle in Münchenstein, near Basel. They play on a medium-paced Greenset indoor hard court with Head ATP balls. Since 2009 it has been one of the World Tour 500 Series.</p><p>The event has been won by one of the top 4 seeds every year since 2005. It is one of the worst events on tour for underdogs and only once since 2005 has a qualifier made it past the quarter finals.</p><p>Federer has made the final in 12 of the last 13 years (he did not play in 2016), taking the title 9 times (only ever lost to Novak and Del Potro). Federer holds the record for most titles (9) and he has reached the final 14 times in total, an Open Era record for most finals reached at a single ATP event.</p><p style="text-align:center"><a href=";a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2>Top Half</h2><p>The top half is headed by Federer, with Tsitsipas, Fognini and Wawrinka his seeded opposition. There is little need to point out how well Federer plays here and he is obviously tempting at 2.62 given that he has won the event 9 of the last 12 times he has played including the last 4 times in a row (2014-15, 2017-18).</p><p>Tsitsipas is in good form and the biggest threat in this half, though he has a tough draw and at 7 doesn’t look clear value to me. Federer tends to have his way against Wawrinka with a 18-3 H2H and, especially on indoor hard, I would be surprised to see that trend broken this week (all 3 wins came on clay).</p><p>Fognini has been typically up and down with a fine week in Shanghai followed by a 6-1 6-1 routing by Tipsarevic in the opening round last week. Either way indoors is one of his worst surfaces and he has never chosen to play this event, so I’m not interested in backing the Italian.</p><p>A few players in this half at big prices who could go well are Krajinovic, Berankis, Evans and Ramos, but given the strong trend of Federer dominating at this event it is probably best to look to the bottom half for big priced winners.</p><p> </p><h2>Bottom Half</h2><p>The bottom half is headed by Zverev, with Bautista, Goffin and Paire his seeded opposition. This half is clearly more open with 3 of the 4 betting favourites sitting in the top half (Zverev is joint second favourite).</p><p>Zverev has been good to oppose all year but looks to have turned a corner and should enjoy conditions. There is potential in the form of Alex De Minaur, Struff and Kecmanovic, but it’s a very dense quarter and on balance none appeal enough at the prices.</p><p>The other quarter seems more appealing from a betting front with the favourites - Goffin, Cilic and Bautista - all looking vulnerable to a lesser or greater degree. A few players who appeal at the prices are Opelka, Garin and Copil.</p><p>I don’t think I would be betting on any of the favourites in this half, besides perhaps taking a chance on Zverev’s strong immediate form continuing. Goffin has been poor recently, Cilic has been poor all year and Bautista is generally poor indoors and had a recent injury concern.</p><p> </p><h2>The Verdict</h2><p>A few potential options, especially in the bottom half, but it is hard to see past Federer at the prices. It must be noted that he is 38 years old and experiencing age related decline - he can’t continue like this forever. That being said, he hasn’t lost in straight sets in this event once in the last 13 years and all 3 of his losses came in the final against elite level opposition. I’m surprised he’s much over evens and at 2.62 seems worth a bet.</p><p>The second selection is a big outsider in the bottom half, Marius Copil at 101 with Bet365. Copil is an indoor hard specialist with a 36.5% ROI on the surface at main level and 62.1% ROI as underdog. He made the final last year defeating Cilic and Zverev at big prices en route (both betting favourites in his half this year). Copil was in excellent form last week in Antwerp with a win over world number 16 Schwartzman followed by a respectable 3 set loss to eventual title winner Andy Murray. Copil is in the weaker quarter in the bottom half and if he maintains current form there is every chance of an upset over Bautista, followed by a winnable match against Gasquet or Londero, then Goffin or Cilic and finally Zverev. If he makes the final Federer is likely to be there and too strong for Copil, as he was last year, but at that point we will have cashed the 51 each way part of the bet and we have Federer outright, so that’s fine.</p><p>All in all, this is not an event where I tend to go overboard on the underdogs, but Copil stands out to me and alongside Federer they are my selections for the week.</p><div><strong>Best bets: </strong></div><ul> <li>Roger Federer to win at 2.62 with <a href=";a=b4150791-892f-469b-9b6a-7dfc6df0fb07&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Get in the game with Ladbrokes">Ladbrokes</a> [1u]</li> <li>Marius Copil each way at 101 with <a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Well rated bookmaker">Bet365</a> [0.25u]</li></ul></div>
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