Cincinnati Masters Day 4 Preview and Betting Tips

Tennis Pilot

Thursday, August 15, 2019 11:29 AM UTC

Thursday, Aug. 15, 2019 11:29 AM UTC

Can Hsieh force a decider against Osaka for the fourth time in five meetings?
<div><h2>Su-Wei Hsieh vs Naomi Osaka (2)</h2><p><a href="" target="_blank" title="Game Odds"><strong>Thursday, August 15, Cincinnati</strong></a></p><p>Osaka has openly talked about her struggle for form since winning the US Open and I’m happy to take her on in some form here. Hsieh by contrast has had a strong year and while the 33 year old is coming to the end of her career she has consistently pushed the better players on tour.</p><p>Despite her US Open run Osaka has actually not been a particularly strong player in main level events winning 62% of her last 50 matches for a -7% ROI and 66% of her last 50 as favourite for a -3.9% ROI. In her opening round she won 7-6(3) 2-6 6-2 priced 1.3 against Sasnovich and she’s only won 2 of her last 10 matches priced 1.5 to 1.99 in straight sets. Cincinnati has also not been her best venue with a 2-2 record and only one win in straight sets despite 3 matches as favourite.</p><p>Hsieh has won 56% of her last 50 matches as underdog at main level for a 45.6% ROI. That number rises to 62.5% in 2019 for a 53% ROI and 73.68% on hard courts for a 83.5% ROI. I considered just taking Hsieh to win but a couple of factors put me off. Firstly, Hsieh’s record against the very best is mixed – she has won just 3 of her last 10 as underdog against the top 10 for a -16% ROI but has taken a set in 6, and none of her wins came in straight sets. Secondly, the H2H is 3-1 to Osaka but 3 of the 4 matches have gone the distance. Both matches on hard courts went to 3 and the only meeting won in straight sets was on clay, Hsieh’s worst surface.</p><p>Overall it’s a match up where I expect a very tight fought battle based on both longer trends and immediate form. We can get roughly the same on 3 sets as the win and there is a lot of evidence that if Hsieh wins she’s likely to do it in 3, so I’ll take a chance on the decider.</p><p><strong>Best Bet: Total Sets: 3 at 2.6 with <a href=";a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="A+ Rated Bookmaker!">Betway</a></strong></p><p><a href=";a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:100%;height:38px" /></a></p><h2>Diego Schwartzman vs Richard Gasquet</h2><p><a href="" target="_blank" title="Game Odds"><strong>Thursday, August 15, Cincinnati</strong></a></p><p>Schwartzman is 5’ 7” and the most return orientated player on tour. In 2019, he has won the 3rd most return games behind Nadal and Novak. In 2018 he was 2nd to Nadal with Novak 3rd. The Argentine’s game is based on neutralising his opponent though he can counter punch and be aggressive very effectively. Often he dominates players when on a roll or given too much time.</p><p>The first set has been under 8.5 games in 32% of Schwartzman’s last 50 matches and 36% of his last 50 priced 1.5 to 1.99. Priced 1.5 to 2.99 at main level, non slam hard court events the first set has been under 8.5 games in 16 of 45 matches or 35.6%. Gasquet is not nearly as good for this bet though he has been in poor form as an underdog losing 4 of his 12 opening sets in fewer than 8.5 games in 2019. Plus, 3 of the 4 H2H sets have gone under 8.5 games.</p><p>Gasquet has looked more solid the last couple of weeks but still nothing special and a strong showing from the Argentine would likely be a real test for the Frenchman. Equally, if Gasquet can rekindle some old form he may be able to hit Schwartzman off the court for a set. In other words, there are several ways the bet could come in. The main worry is the quicker courts but the price is still clearly too long in my opinion.</p><p><strong>Best Bet: Set 1 Total Games: Under 8.5 at 4.5 with <a href=";a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Join Betfair Today!">Betfair</a></strong></p></div>
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