Cincinnati Open Day 5 Preview and Top Betting Tips

Tennis Pilot

Friday, August 16, 2019 1:28 PM UTC

Friday, Aug. 16, 2019 1:28 PM UTC

Will Medvedev’s dominant form continue against his big hitting compatriot?

<div><h2>Andrey Rublev (Q) vs Daniil Medvedev (9)</h2><p><strong>Friday, August 16, Cincinnati</strong></p><p>Two powerful, big hitting Russians meet in the quarter final after Rublev shocked the tennis world by defeating Federer in straight sets. While Rublev played a very solid match it was one of the weakest performances from Federer in a long while and perhaps he is having a post Wimbledon comedown. It would be of no surprise after a brutal defeat having been 40-15 up serving for the match. Regardless I feel it is a good amtch up for Medvedev who should beat Rublev at his own game and on current form he should be far too solid for his compatriot.</p><p>Medvedev’s level since Wimbledon has been astounding. He has made back to back finals without dropping a set until each final and has worked up a hold/break total of 125.2% which is well beyond elite level. More broadly he has won 86% of his 63 matches as favourite on hard courts for a 25% ROI including 13 of his last 14 and he has won in straight sets in 20 of his last 25. Priced 1.2 to 1.499 in non slam, hard court events he has won 14 of 15 with 10 coming in straight sets including 4 of his last 5. I was worried about fatigue coming into this event but after a couple of early struggles he looked weirdly rejuvenated in the last round defeating Struff 6-2 6-1. Until he shows clear signs of fatigue I can’t pass up the opportunity to back him in some capacity.</p><p>Rublev had the biggest win of his career last round and hopefully won’t have slept very well - I can’t say I would sleep if I not only played but defeated Federer. More importantly, Rublev’s game is very similar to Medvedev but less consistent – both are power orientated players who like to punch holes in the opponents defence, though I would argue Medvedev has more variety when needed. Medvedev has simply been far, far better at executing that game in recent months and while Rublev has looked strong at points this season he has been characteristically inconsistent. Priced 2 to 6 against the top 10 Rublev has lost all 6 of his matches and he is 4-12 at this price range against the top 20 for a -35% ROI.</p><p>In the one H2H meeting, which was back in 2016 but priced very similarly, Medvedev won 6-3 6-2 and I would not be surprised to see something similar again today. I doubt that this will all be easy for Medvedev but as long as he maintains the focus which has characterised his play since Wimbledon I would be very surprised to see him lose this match. Given his history of winning in straight sets I’m happy taking a chance on the longer odds option but for those more risk averse the win at 1.36 is still value in my eyes.</p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best Bet: Medvedev 2-0 at 1.95 with Unibet</strong></em></a></p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&amp;a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2>Karolina Pliskova (3) vs Svetlana Kuznetsova (WC)</h2><p><strong>Friday, August 16, Cincinnati</strong></p><p>Kuznetsova is getting towards the end of her career at 34 but the Russian is still a tough opponent for most anyone on her day and has looked strong this week so far. While I would expect Pliskova to come through in the end I think it will be a tricky match and I’m happy taking a chance on 2-1 to the Czech.</p><p>Pliskova is 6’ 1”with a game based around powerful serving and ball striking but she often finds herself being outmanoeuvred by lower ranked opposition for a time before finding her rhythm and hitting players off the court. She has won 24 in a row priced 1.2 to 1.499 in non slam, hard courts going back to February 2018 and she has won 47 of her last 50 in total at the price range. The 2-1 has won or been returned in 21 of those last 50 matches or 42%.</p><p>Kuznetsova is a wily and awkward opponent who has a varied and adaptable game. Sometimes she is simply overwhelmed by the more powerful opposition as in her 2 and 1 defeat to Halep in Toronto last week but generally she forces the better players to work hard. Priced 3 to 6 the Russian has taken a set in 21 of 34 matches or 62% and against the top 10 in that price range she has won a set in 17 of 24 matches or 71%. The issue for Svetlana is her ability to get over the line. She has won just 2 of her last 10 matches priced 3 to 6 against the top 10 yet she has taken a set in 7 of those. Specifically on hard courts the trend is even clearer. She has won a set in 9 of 14 matches priced 3 to 6 against the top 10 or 64% but won just 2 meaning the 2-1 would have landed in 7 of 14 matches for a 117% ROI.</p><p>The H2H is 2-1 to Kuznetsova but the matches are from 2016 and 2017 so not hugely relevant. It is worth pointing out that they went to 3 sets in 2 of the matches with Pliskova winning one and the one time it was finished in straight sets was 7-6 7-6 - pretty much as close as you can get to 3 sets.</p><p>I’d have priced this in the range of 3.25 to 3.5 so it’s an easy bet at anything over 3.75.</p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=b4150791-892f-469b-9b6a-7dfc6df0fb07&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best Bet: Pliskova 2-1 at 4.33 with Ladbrokes</strong></em></a></p></div>
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