Can Medvedev take a set off Novak for the fourth time in five meetings?
<div><h2>Novak Djokovic (1) vs Daniil Medvedev (9)</h2><p><strong>Saturday, August 17, Cincinnati</strong></p><p>Medvedev gave us a handy 1.95 winner last night and on current form I’m keen to back him again. I took a chance on Medvedev and Nadal to go to 3 sets in the Montreal final and the Russian instead got bageled in the second set, so we’re somewhat tempting fate. Still, I can’t help but feel that there are many good reasons to take another chance today and we’ll see what kind of performance Medvedev can deliver.</p><p>The stats are still roughly the same for Medvedev as they were against Nadal and are worth repeating. He has traded the opening two sets in 10 of his 17 matches priced over 2 against top 10 opposition. Notably, in this match up they have traded opening sets in 3 of the 4 meetings, unlike with Nadal where they had not played. Medvedev has commented in the past about how Novak is ‘not the player he was’ and points to the emerging kinks in the Serbs armour as evidence that anyone can beat him on the day. This belief will hopefully help him in today’s match.</p><p>Novak has looked a little vulnerable this week despite his comfortable victories winning just 46.8% on second serve compared to his tour average of 57%. Querrey lead by a break in the opening set, Carreno Busta had the same number of return games with break points in the second set and Pouille managed to make it to a tiebreak in the opening set. Of course, in typical Novak style, none managed to win even one set, but there are gaps in the defence which are there to be exploited if Medvedev turns up with the right attitude and executes his aggressive game plan well. Novak seems to save his best for the slams at the minute and I would not be surprised if he struggled to see of Medvedev comfortably.</p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best Bet: Total Sets: 3 at 2.62 with Bet365</strong></em></a></p><p><em><strong><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></strong></em></p><h2>WTA Cincinnati</h2><p><strong>Saturday, August 17, Cincinnati</strong></p><p>Nothing I like enough to tip in the women’s - instead we’ll do a brief breakdown.</p><p>Yesterday was frustrating from the daily bets with Pliskova 2-1 coming down to 1.36 in the decider but ironically it was Pliskova who struggled to get over the line rather than Kuznetsova. Each won 50% of points in the match and Pliskova served for the win in the second set so it was just one of those matches where the swings came at just the wrong time for our bet.</p><p>Kuznetsova has looked good this week, but she faces Barty next up and I’m less confident in the match up. Pliskova relies on power, and Kuznetsova was able to disrupt her rhythm enough to really hurt the Czech in the second two sets. Barty is a much more solid baseliner and seems unlikely to be as phased by the wily antics. I wouldn’t want to rule out another upset but at the same price as against Pliskova I’ll leave this one alone.</p><p>The second match between Keys and Kenin is a real pick ‘em and a classic short vs long term form match. Keys holds the better one-year stats but Kenin is the much more in form player right now. Both have looked solid this tournament with keys defeating Halep and Kenin knocking out Osaka though I’d probably say Keys has a slight edge this week. Their one meeting went the way of Kenin in May this year and she went off a 3.6 underdog on the day highlighting the price adjustment in this match. My instinct says that if anything it might be a spot to oppose recent form if you can get evens on Keys, but I can’t say I have a strong opinion either way so I’m happy watching from the sidelines.</p></div>