Davis Cup Finals Day 3 Best Tennis Bets and Predictions

Tennis Pilot

Wednesday, November 20, 2019 10:17 AM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2019 10:17 AM UTC

Tiebreaks likely to feature as Fritz and Berrettini meet in quick conditions
<div><h2>Davis Cup Finals</h2><p><a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/tennis/" target="_blank" title="Live Tennis Odds Board"><strong>Wednesday, November 20, Madrid</strong></a></p><p>It’s been a fairly routine start to the Davis Cup with just 2 underdog wins from 9 ties so far, both Canadian victories, and even then, Canada were only slight underdogs against Italy and the USA. No other team has yet to win 2 ties and we have another 6 set for Wednesday.</p><p>It is hard to envisage Spain losing to Croatia given the depth of their squad, but this is reflected in their price of 1.03. Coric has been in poor form as his price of 6 implies, but he has beaten Nadal in similar conditions in the past, plus they have a strong doubles pair, so it’s not a tie I’m interested in.</p><p>Great Britain make their debut priced 1.23 against the Netherlands and I would be surprised to see an upset here, even if they drop a singles rubber. Haase managed to beat Bublik today priced over 3 and he could certainly threaten Evans on his day, but Murray should beat van de Zandshulp comfortably. I would expect GB to win the doubles comfortably under normal conditions so the prices seem fair.</p><p>Japan take on Serbia after giving an excellent account of themselves against France. Nishioka managed to beat Monfils 7-5 6-2 priced over 4, and Uchiyama/McLachlan won the first set against Herbert/Mahut priced 7, eventually losing 7-5 in the third. Serbia have often under performed in the Davis Cup, and Djokovic doesn’t always find his best form, but Nishioka is still taking on the world number 1 and priced 10. Krajinovic is also the favourite against Suigta, and he has an excellent record indoors, especially recently.</p><p>The doubles would be fascinating if they did manage to get a singles win. Serbia are set to play Tipsarevic/Troicki who are priced 3 against the Japanese, so a lot rests on the singles. It’s quite a lot for the Japanese to overcome, even if they play well, but they certainly aren’t without a chance and tempt at 5.5.</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=160&amp;a=9feaaf7a-d7a2-4185-974a-81ad171951df&amp;f=3"><img alt src="https://imstore.bet365affiliates.com/AffiliateCreativeBanners/Sports/General/Bet%20Builder/en-GB/UK/STD/728x90_2.jpeg" style="width:100%;height:12px" /></a></p><p>Belgium also have their chances against Australia, but Goffin would have to dramatically improve on his opening showing. He does have a winnable match against De Minaur, and has played well in the Davis Cup in the past. Darcis has played well in the Davis Cup too, so he may cause Kyrgios problems, but I would expect the Aussie to be too much in quick conditions. Australia will have an advantage in the doubles, and I would expect them to win overall, but it may be close if Goffin can find some form and force a decider.</p><p>The two most competitive ties are Argentina against Germany and the USA against Italy. Neither offers much in terms of money line value, but in these quick conditions it may be worth taking a chance on tiebreaks. Berrettini played Shapovalov on Monday and lost in 3 tiebreaks, while Fritz lost to Shapovalov 7-6 6-3. Berrettini and Fritz meet on Wednesday and I would expect more of the same.</p><p>Fritz is 6’ 4” and serve orientated holding 85.4% and breaking 12.7% over the last year on indoor and outdoor hard at main level. He’s 2.7 for this match and he has played 12 matches priced 2 to 6 on indoor hard with 7 first set tiebreaks, including 4 of his last 5. Last out in the Paris Masters he defeated Tiafoe 7-6 3-6 6 -4 before losing 7-6 6-3 to Tsitsipas, and in Basel he defeated Zverev 7-6 6-4 priced 4.5, so he’s shown recently that he can compete with quality opposition and hold his way to tiebreaks in similar, quick indoor conditions.</p><p>Berrettini is also 6’ 4” and similarly serve orientated holding 86.2% and breaking 15.4% over the last year on indoor and outdoor hard. He’s played 61 sets priced 1.2 to 1.99 indoors and 27 have gone past 5-5, with 20 being tiebreaks. At the ATP Finals he lost 7-6 6-3 to Federer and defeated Thiem 7-6 6-3, and last out he held 18 straight games against Shapovalov, making 67% of first serves, so I doubt he’ll be broken easily.</p><p>In fast, indoor conditions it’s often near impossible to break a strong server, and both these players fit the bill. We can get 3.55 on the first set tiebreak and 1.9 on a tiebreak in the match, both of which are value. I’ll have a point on each as my selections for Wednesday.</p><p><strong>Best Bets:</strong></p><ul> <li>Berrettini vs Fritz Set 1 Total Games: Over 12.5 at 3.55 with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Bookmaker!">Unibet</a></li> <li>Berrettini vs Fritz Total Tiebreaks: Over 0.5 at 1.9 with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Bookmaker!">Unibet</a></li></ul></div>
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