Davis Cup Finals Semifinals Best Tennis Bets and Predictions

Tennis Pilot

Saturday, November 23, 2019 8:22 AM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 23, 2019 8:22 AM UTC

Rublev and Pospisil look set for a tight encounter as Canada take on Russia in the Davis Cup semi final

<div><h2>Davis Cup Finals</h2><p><strong>Saturday, November 23, Madrid</strong></p><p>We were unfortunate last out with our bet on the first set tie in Berrettini vs Fritz as the first two sets were 5-7 7-6, but at least we also backed tiebreak in match. Good news for any who backed our outrights this week with GB through to the semi-finals at 17 and they will play either Spain or Argentina. Unfortunately, Kazakhstan were unable to make the cut, but at 101 they were always a long shot.</p><p>After a routine start to the Davis Cup with just 2 underdogs winning from the first 9 ties, we’ve had a little more interesting results since with 4 underdog winners from the last 12 ties (though just 6 of 21 in total). At the time of writing Argentina have won the opening rubber as the underdog against Spain. I doubt that one will end in an upset with Nadal unlikely to lose against Schwartzman and the Spaniards have a much better doubles pair, but it is not impossible.</p><p>It hasn’t been the best week for underdogs, but we’ve had a few, such as Krajinovic defeating Tsonga, Garin defeating Struff, Pella defeating Carreno Busta and Bublik defeating Evans. Tired performances and motivation question marks always make the Davis Cup a little unpredictable and often good for underdogs, and there are options for the semi final tomorrow.</p><p>Most notably, Pospisil looks long at over 3 against Rublev. The Canadian plays his best tennis in quick conditions and has been in superb form of late, winning all 3 of his matches this week priced 2.5, 2.1 and 1.66 and he’s yet to drop a set (6-0). Pospisil has a 48.3% ROI over his last 50 matches as underdog on indoor and outdoor hard and he’s won 5 of his last 10.</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=168&amp;a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://images-production-euw2-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5d582dcf927b95968483da5f/original-10-bet-new-customer-welcome-bonus" style="width:100%" /></a></p><p>Rublev has also been very good this week and the Russian has really come into his own this year. Still, he does all his best work as the underdog and generally struggles as the favourite with a -4% ROI in 2019. The pair have met once, on slow hard courts last year, and Pospisil won 7-6 6-4 priced 2.75. I’m not that keen to oppose Rublev overall at the prices, but I’ll have half a point on Pospisil.</p><p>I also like the idea of backing tiebreaks again with Unibet offering prices which do not reflect the context or match up. Pospisil is 6’ 4” and very serve orientated holding 88.5% and breaking 13.6% over the last year on indoor and outdoor hard. He’s played a first set tiebreak in 38% of his last 50 priced as underdog on indoor and outdoor hard courts, and 64% of those 50 matches featured a tiebreak. Pospisil’s sets this week read: 7-6 7-5 7-6 7-6 7-6 6-4 and the one H2H match had a first set tiebreak.</p><p>Rublev is not so good for tiebreaks generally, but he’s not bad and we can get 4 on a first set tie and 2.05 on a tiebreak in the match, both of which look worthy of a point. If Unibet cut the prices quickly it may pay to shop around, but only a handful of bookies seem to be opening their lines in decent time making it a frustrating event to bet on.</p><p><strong>Best bets: </strong></p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Vasek Pospisil to defeat Andrey Rublev at 3.2 with Unibet [0.5u]</strong></em></a></p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Andrey Rublev vs Vasek Pospisil Set 1 Total Games: Over 12.5 at 4 with Unibet [1u]</strong></em></a></p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Total Tiebreaks: Over 0.5 at 2.05 with Unibet [1u]</strong></em></a></p></div>
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