Davis Cup Outright Betting Tips & Predictions

Tennis Pilot

Sunday, November 17, 2019 6:11 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 17, 2019 6:11 PM UTC

Back to form Murray can carry Great Britain to Davis Cup victory once again in Madrid
<div><h2>Davis Cup Finals</h2><p><a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/tennis/" target="_blank" title="Live Tennis Odds Board"><strong>Monday, November 18, Madrid</strong></a></p><p>The new, controversial Davis Cup format makes its debut in the coming week where 18 nations compete for the ‘World Cup of Tennis’. There are 6 groups, A to F, and each is made up of 3 teams. The group winners all progress to the knockout stage, as will the best two runners up. Each tie is made up of two singles and one doubles rubber, and each rubber is now best of 3 rather than 5 tiebreak sets.</p><p>The major change has been to remove home-and-away ties and instead all matches will be played at La Caja Mágica, Madrid on a Greenset indoor hardcourt surface. Some argue that the tantalising atmosphere will be lost without the home-away dynamic, but others point out that this format more closely resembles other ‘World Cup’ style events, such as in football. With this week as a kind of trial run it will be interesting to see how successful the new format will emerge.</p><p> </p><h2>Group A</h2><p>Group A is made up of France, Serbia and Japan. France are rightful favourites with three top class singles players and the best doubles pair in the world. The major question in this group is whether Novak is fully fit, but even then Serbia are poor on the doubles front so will likely be relying on a good showing from Krajinovic or Lajovic in the singles. Japan have some talented players, especially Nishioka, but without Nishikori they look a little lost overall. I wouldn’t count out the odd upset but overall this group looks fairly priced.</p><p> </p><h2>Group B</h2><p>Group B is made up of Spain, Russian and Croatia and seems highly likely to go the way of outright favourite Spain. Nadal’s fitness concerns have seemingly abated and, while Russia may have been a threat, Medvedev has now withdrawn making it far less likely they are competitive. Croatia are defending champions but without Cilic they are relying on the ever flaky Coric who has been dreadful in 2019. He can always spring a surprise but Croatia isn’t for me at the prices.</p><p> </p><h2>Group C</h2><p>Group C is made up of Germany, Argentina and Chile. Germany enjoy ever so slight favouritism but Argentina arguably have more quality on the singles front in the form of Schwartzman and Pella. The Germans have a clear edge in the doubles with Kraweitz and Mies having just played the ATP Finals and it may be that they clinch it in the decider. Chile are intriguing with two highly talented youngsters Garin and Jarry, but they have no depth to the team and will likely come up short in the knockout stage even if they manage to make their way out of the group.</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=160&amp;a=9feaaf7a-d7a2-4185-974a-81ad171951df&amp;f=3"><img alt src="https://imstore.bet365affiliates.com/AffiliateCreativeBanners/Sports/General/Bet%20Builder/en-GB/UK/STD/728x90_2.jpeg" style="width:100%;height:12px" /></a></p><h2>Group D</h2><p>Group D is made up of Australia, Belgium and Coloumbia. This is one of the more interesting groups, with Australia in theory a strong favourite, but a lot depends on the mercurial Kyrgios. However, Belgium have shown excellent form in the Davis Cup recently making the final in 2 of the last 4 years. Goffin hasn’t been in his best form of late but has a superb record in the Davis Cup and has an excellent record indoors, where he gets that bit more out of his groundstrokes and his early ball striking can be very effective. Darcis, too, has played very well in the Davis Cup and while the doubles side is more of a worry, Belgium has some appeal at 51 outright, more than 5 times the price of Australia.</p><p> </p><h2>Group E</h2><p>Group E is made up of Great Britain, Kazakhstan and the Netherlands. With Andy Murray’s return, GB are clear favourites, and they have a well balanced team. Murray will play as number 2 meaning he’s more likely to win all his singles, and both Evans and Edmund should have every chance to win their matches. They have Jamie Murray and Neal Skupski on the doubles side, so all in all there are few weaknesses of note.</p><p>However, Kazakhstan are the most prolific over achievers in the Davis Cup in recent years. Kukushkin notably lead Djokoivic by 2 sets to 1 in 2016 priced a whopping 28, which would have been enough for the win in this new format. He has also beaten the likes of Wawrinka, Coric, Schwartzman and Troicki (when he was 23 in the world) and overall the Kazakh has a 25-13 record and 45.6% ROI in Davis Cup singles.</p><p>Bublik has less history to go from, but his one Davis Cup match was a win indoors priced 3.25 against Sousa in February this year. He has also been exceptional to bet on with a 21.1% ROI lifetime and he recently made the final in quick conditions in Chengdu, defeating Dimitrov and Fritz en route. At 6’ 5” he will relish the quick conditions and he has won 14 of 28 matches as underdog over the last year for a 42% ROI (64% lifetime).</p><p>Golubev and Nedovyesov have been equally formidable on the doubles side, most notably defeating Federer and Wawrinka back in 2014 and Djokovic and Zimonjic in 2016, both as heavy underdogs.</p><p>The Netherlands have little appeal with so much relying on the flaky, unpredictable Haase, though it is fair to say that Griekspoor and van de Zandshulp are both talented younger players, and Rojer is a world class doubles player, so they may put up a fight.</p><p> </p><h2>Group F</h2><p>Group F is made up of the USA, Italy and Canada. One of the tougher groups, the USA enjoy favouritism at 2.5, with Canada the underdogs at 3.5 and Italy around 2.88. So, a close group, and a lot of question marks around key players leads me to have little interest. Auger-Aliassime is on comeback from injury, while Isner is absent for the USA, and Fognini is unlikely to favour conditions. Each team has it’s drawbacks and none offer clear value at the prices.</p><p> </p><h2>Verdict</h2><p>The Davis Cup is known for its shock results, especially at this time of year where fitness is such a major factor. Spain have won 5 of the last 20 events and, if Rafa’s fitness holds up, they seem likely to do so once again. France too have a prolific record in the Davis Cup, so the top of the field is tough, but it’s hard to see value in the price of either team. Australia is tempting but I’m not hugely keen to take a chance on Kyrgios, while Serbia, Russia, Germany, Argentina and Croatia look clearly opposable. The USA has a team who will likely enjoy conditions, but again I’m not convinced of the value.</p><p>Instead, I’ll turn to GB for my first bet, with their depth and balance likely to be a tough test for any team. Quick, indoor conditions will suit, especially if Murray has to play Rafa, and their price seems big at 17 given they are longer than the likes of Croatia, Serbia, Russia, Germany and Argentina.</p><p>Secondly, I’ll take a chance on the Kazakh’s maintaining their excellent Davis Cup record. There are a few options, such as ‘to win Group E’ at 5.5, ‘to make the semi final’ at 19 or simply outright at 101. Since they are likely play Spain or France in the quarters, I’m fine just taking a chance on the outright. They can come second in the group and still make the quarters, and while they would need to play exceptionally well to beat either France or Spain, it is not unconceivable in these conditions, especially given both Kukushkin and Bublik do their best world on quick hard courts.</p><p>Not an event to go overboard with the staking, but at the prices I like GB and Kazakhstan for small stakes.</p><p><strong>Best Bets: </strong></p><ul> <li>Great Britain at 17 with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=153&amp;a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Bookmaker!">Betfair</a> [0.5u each way]</li> <li>Kazakhstan at 101 with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Join Bet365 Today!">Bet365</a> [0.1u each way]</li></ul></div>
comment here