Can in form Martic upset the top seed to land her maiden hardcourt title?
<div><h2>Karolina Pliskova vs Petra Martic</h2><p><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/wta-tennis/karolina-pliskova-vs-petra-martic-3909378/odds/" target="_blank">Sunday, September 15, Zhengzhou</a></p><p>Bad day for the daily bets today with both favorites winning comfortably but a good day for the 20 to 1 outright on Martic tipped by Snize in the video preview. Martic was a comfortable 6-0 6-3 winner over Mladenovic and has looked impressive this week. With any luck, she will be able to go all the way but a hedge seems sensible at this stage all things considered.</p><p>Pliskova has also been impressive this week though she’s had her ups and downs. She almost lost the second set to Hercog before needing 3 sets to defeat Kenin but her comeback on both occasions was impressive, winning the last 5 games against Hercog and winning the decider 6-1 against Kenin.</p><p>I would argue that the Czech has struggled with consistency in the past especially in high-pressure moments but this year she has been more composed, adaptable, and resilient. Her easy power and huge serve win her a lot of free points and when combined with an increased adjustability she can be a formidable opponent.</p><p>Unsurprisingly this has been reflected in her results especially against the better opposition on tour. Priced 1.2 to 1.99 against the top 50 she has a 24-5 record and 19.7% ROI in 2019 and she has 3 titles and an additional final to date. Her combined hold/break is 115.3% for 2019 and she has won 8 of her 10 semis and finals for a 37.6% ROI.</p><p>In fairness, Martic has a 110.1% combined break/hold and she too has been very consistent and impressive in 2019 as well as this week. However, the problem that Martic has is her performance against the elite. Priced over evens against the top 10 she has a 5-28 record for a -40.7% ROI and she has lost 8 of her last 10 for a -69% ROI.</p><p>I would argue that her game, while consistent and somewhat varied, lacks a killer element, such as a very powerful forehand or exceptional counter punching capability. In general, when playing the elite this is the deciding factor as they will expose any mediocrity and non-exceptionality.</p><p>The second major point is that Martic is a clay specialist and, while conditions are slow and it hasn’t seemed like an issue this week, she does all her best work on the red dirt. She has yet to claim a main level title on hard courts despite being a top 30 player but she does have a clay title. Moreover, while her record against the top 10 is poor generally, it is even worse on hard courts with a 0-6 record in 2019 and just 1 win in her last 10 overall for a -75.2% ROI.</p><p>The H2H also supports the surface bias hypothesis. It is 4-1 to Martic overall but there are only 2 matches since 2013 which were split 1-1, both in 2019, with Pliskova winning comfortably on a hard court, and Martic winning comfortably on clay.</p><p>I’m not sure I would say this is a good value price but I would expect the top seed to be too much on the day. She looked a little slow early in the week but has really dialed in her game and looks likely to overpower Martic in this encounter. Even so, I would only suggest you get involved if you followed Snize’s advise and backed Martic outright.</p><p>Best Bet: <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Karolina Pliskova at 1.52 with Unibet</a> [only if you followed our tip on Martic outright at 21]</p></div>