Muchova vs Sabalenka WTA Zhuhai Elite Trophy Top Tips

Tennis Pilot

Friday, October 25, 2019 6:30 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 25, 2019 6:30 PM UTC

In form Muchova can keep it close against Sabalenka in Zhuhai

<div><h2>Zhuhai Elite Trophy</h2><p><strong>Thursday, October 24, Zhuhai</strong></p><p>We are into the semi finals of the WTA Elite Trophy in Zhuhai and turning to Saturday’s play there are 2 matches on the cards. The top seed, Bertens, takes on Zheng while Muchova faces Sabalenka.</p><p>I couldn’t count out Zheng as a 3.1 underdog. She has an excellent record as the underdog against elite opposition including a comfortable 6-4 6-2 win over Keys priced 3.8 at the start of this event. However, Bertens has looked much stronger this week than for most of 2019 and she won their only H2H match comfortably, so it’s a mixed bag and for me there isn’t a clear angle.</p><p>Instead, I’ll opt for over 20.5 games at 1.83 with Unibet in the match between Sabalenka and Muchova. Sabalenka is almost 6’ 0” and Muchova is 5’ 10” so both are tall and it shows in their stats. Muchova has held 12% more than the WTA average over the last year while Sabalenka has held 9% more, and they have broken 1% more than the average and exactly on the average respectively.</p><p><a href=";a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></p><p>Sabalenka is a clear favourite here at 1.44 and based on her recent and immediate form I would expect her to win, but she isn’t a player who makes life easy for herself, especially against top quality underdogs. She has played 42 matches priced 1.2 to 1.99 against the top 50 on indoor and outdoor hard and 27 have seen the over 20.5 line land (64%) including 4 of her last 5.</p><p>Muchova is ranked 35 and is also solid for over bets statistically with 32 of her last 50 matches priced over 2 seeing this bet land (64%). She has been in good form this week most notably defeating Kenin in 3 sets priced 2.8 last round. Priced over evens against the top 50 she has won 5 of her last 10 matches for a 65.5% ROI so I wouldn’t count her out and I would be surprised if she was totally outclassed in this encounter.</p><p>As often in these elite level events value looks thin on the ground, but most everything points to this being a tight match so I’m happy siding with the over bet.</p><p><a href=";a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best bet: Over 20.5 Games at 1.83 with Unibet</strong></em></a></p></div>
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