Next Gen ATP Finals Day 3 Preview and Top Betting Tips

Tennis Pilot

Thursday, November 7, 2019 7:55 AM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 7, 2019 7:55 AM UTC

Tricky Ymer has the game to cause problems for Tiafoe in Milan

<div><h2>Next Gen Finals</h2><p><strong>Thursday, November 7, Milano</strong></p><p>I’ve had a profitable start to the Next Gen finals so far, with both the show tip for over 23.5 games in Tiafoe/Sinner at 1.83 and our group outright for Sinner at 3.25 winning comfortably. Hopefully that can continue as we turn to day three.</p><p>Just the one underdog won on Wednesday, Tiafoe against Humbert, though Davidovich came close against Ruud, losing 3-2. Tiafoe played well, though it was poor from Humbert and after an equally flat opening round the Frenchman will be feeling disappointed by his level. Davidovich suffered a fall on court, and, though he seemed to recover fairly well, his fitness is a bit of a question mark.</p><p>The second pair of favourites won more comfortably. De Minaur played well on the whole against Kecmanovic, though he did put in a poor set to lose 4-1. This was swiftly followed by a 4-0 bagel to conclude, and the Aussie seems to be improving overall as the tournament goes on. Sinner took Ymer to pieces for the loss of just 3 games. Ymer was simply unable to defend against the onslaught from Sinner and couldn’t find his range at all. Sinner has been the most impressive player this week, De Minaur his only competition.</p><p>Day three has four matches on the cards. Sinner, who has already won his group, takes on Humbert. The pricing is very biased towards immediate form, with Humbert over 3, which seems a little extreme given that Sinner may be less motivated, and/or Humbert could feel the pressure lift given he has nothing to lose. I’ll pass on that match and on the match involving Davidovich since his fitness is not known.</p><p><a href=";a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></p><p>Instead I’ll turn to the match between De Minaur and Ruud and take a chance on a one sided affair. De Minaur is 1.2 for this match and he’s the far superior player, especially on this surface. Ruud lacks major weaponry and plays a similar game to De Minaur. I expect he will be outplayed at his own game, and even if he nicks a set, we just need an average of less than 6 games per set. That is very reasonable, in fact that’s how De Minaur has won both matches so far this week. More generally De Minaur is an excellent favourite winning 30 of his 37 matches priced under evens against the top 100 in 2019, including 24 of 26 priced sub 1.5. In 7 of the last 10 priced sub 1.5 the under bet has landed.</p><p>Perhaps most importantly, Ruud has a poor record against top opposition and does his best work on clay. He is 5 for the win and priced over 3 against the top 50 he is 0-15 and 3-34 in sets, with 9 of the 15 matches seeing the under bet land, including 8 of the last 10. All in all, I would expect De Minaur to be dominant and under 23.5 games at 2 with Betfair is my first selection.</p><p>Secondly, I’m going to take a chance on Ymer against Tiafoe. Sinner was flawless on the day and Ymer was completely taken aback, whereas I feel Tiafoe plays a style a little more conducive to allowing Ymer into the rallies. He is the kind of player who needs to build his rhythm and can be dangerous when in form. Priced over evens against the top 100 he has won 4 of 11 matches in 2019 for a 20.4% ROI, and indoors he’s won 4 of 9 for a 73.2% ROI going back to 2015. He’s 2.63 today and priced 2 to 2.99 he’s won 20 of 42 matches for a 23.6% ROI, and indoors he’s won 7 of 13 matches for a 22.8% ROI.</p><p>Tiafoe by contrast is a player who often flatters to deceive, though he has looked good overall this week. Longer term his stats are poor with a 11-12 record priced as favourite over the last 12 months for a -22.9% ROI. Indoor hard doesn’t seem to be his best surface either with a 1-4 record as favourite over the last year and a 16-14 record and -26.7% ROI overall. He doesn’t tend to go for as much as early as Sinner, so I’d expect him to at least give Ymer the opportunity to get into a rhythm. I would have had this closer to 2.2, maybe 2.38, so at 2.63 it’s good value.</p><p><strong>Best bets: </strong></p><p><a href=";a=1ba923f3-5341-4bda-b457-0138ac61ae7a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Alex De Minaur vs Casper Ruud Under 23.5 games at 2 with Betfred</strong></em></a></p><p><a href=";a=1ba923f3-5341-4bda-b457-0138ac61ae7a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Mikael Ymer to defeat Frances Tiafoe at 2.63 with Betfred </strong></em></a></p></div>
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