Next Gen ATP Finals Outrights, Best Tennis Tips and Predictions

Tennis Pilot

Monday, November 4, 2019 7:01 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 4, 2019 7:01 PM UTC

Strong top of the field is likely to prevail at the Next Gen ATP Finals in Milan.

<div><h2 style="text-align:center">Next Gen ATP Finals</h2><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Tuesday, November 5, Milan</strong></p><p>No luck for our outright preview last week but anyone who watched the show would have picked up a handy winner. Snize tipped Shapovalov at 71 and the young Canadian duly made the final to land the each way portion of the bet. There may be a small deduction as Federer withdrew, but either way it was a nice end to the regular season and now we turn to the Next Gen ATP Finals in Milan.</p><p style="text-align:center"><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&amp;a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2>History &amp; Context</h2><p>The Next Gen ATP Finals is into its third year in 2019 and once again the best men aged 21 and under take the stage in Milan. The field is unsurprisingly competitive. Even with Tsitsipas, Auger-Aliassime and Shapovalov pulling out, 3 of the top 4, there are still 4 players inside the top 56 and no one outside the top 100. Previous editions were held at the Fiera Milano but in 2019 they have moved to the PalaLido Allianz Cloud. Organisers have retained the same GreenSet court which played relatively slow in previous editions.</p><p>The format is quite unlike regular tour events. Played over 5 days, the event consists of two round robin group stages, followed by the semi-final and final. Each set is to 4 games with a tiebreak at 3-3 and they play best of 5 sets. There is no ad scoring (receiver’s choice) but, while lets were dropped in previous editions, they return in 2019. Coaching is also allowed, somewhat like the WTA tour but via headset. New in 2019, players will be allowed to wear personal trackers and use the data provided to direct changes in their game over the week.</p><p>Stefanos Tsitsipas is the defending champion but he has withdrawn after qualifying for the ATP Finals. Tiafoe and De Minaur are the only players in the field to have already played this event, with De Minaur finishing runner up to Tsitsipas last year.</p><p> </p><h2>Group A</h2><p>Group A is made up of De Minaur, Kecmanovic, Ruud and Davidovich Fokina. The Aussie is a strong favourite for this section and clear favourite for the tournament overall, and it’s hard to argue with the pricing. The Aussie will be favourite for every one of his matches and his record priced under evens against the top 100 is 31-7 over the last 12 months for a 16.7% ROI. He is a focused, high energy player whose core strengths lie in defence, adaptability and recoverability and he has an excellent attitude. These are all qualities that explain why he is such a consistent favourite, but as important is the quality of his opposition in this context.</p><p>Kecmanovic would prefer a quicker surface and has struggled against top opposition with a 3-13 record priced over evens against the top 50 for a -50.5% ROI. Similarly, Ruud does his best work on the red dirt and has really struggled against top opposition with a 6-21 record priced over evens against the top 50 for a -51.2% ROI. Davidovich Fokina is arguably a dark horse with a 3-3 record priced over evens against the top 50 and he won the only previous meeting with De Minaur last year. However, that meeting was on clay where Davidovich does his best work. He has little experience on indoor hard courts, so it’s a bit of a guessing game.</p><p> </p><h2>Group B</h2><p>Group B is made up of Sinner, Tiafoe, Humbert and Ymer. This is a much harder group to read with all four players possessing similar chances, but Sinner and Tiafoe enjoy joint slight favouritism. Tiafoe is a player who has clear promise and talent, but who often underperforms on key moments against the elite. He played the event last year and lost priced 1.3 to Munar. I’d guess he would prefer conditions a little quicker.</p><p>Sinner is this year’s wild card and the home hope is in with every chance. The Italian possesses immense talent and has no fear, rightly so at 18 years old and the youngest player in the top 100. He’s been one of the best players to bet on over the last year with a 39.1% ROI in 2019 and he comes into this off the back of two excellent showing in Antwerp and Vienna. Notably, he defeated Tiafoe in similar, slow indoor hard conditions in Antwerp. As often with Tiafoe, it was play at key moments which let him down and I would not be surprised if that continued this week.</p><p>Humbert has good recent form indoors, but his record as underdog is a poor 6-18 in 2019 for a -30.3% ROI. He will be priced 2 to 2.99 against Tiafoe, Sinner and De Minaur, his main opposition, so it is notable that his record in this price bracket is 3-13 in 2019 for a -51.4% ROI and he’s lost 9 of his last 10.</p><p>Ymer has been in superb form on indoor hard of late winning back to back challengers in September and October, most notably defeating Tsonga and Bedene. However, he then lost priced 1.3 and 1.5 in his next two events so he may have burnt himself out, and he has a poor 1-7 record priced over evens against the top 50.</p><p> </p><h2>Verdict</h2><p>There are only two players who stand out as clear options to me, De Minaur and Sinner. I will take the former to win outright at 3 with Betway, while Sinner seems a nice price to win his group at 3.25 generally. Finally, given that Unibet are offering twice the price of most bookies on Davidovich, I’ll take a small bet on the outsider in the hopes that he will enjoy the slow conditions.</p><div><strong>Best bets:</strong></div><ul> <li>Alex De Minaur to win at 3 <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Get in the game with Betway!">with Betway</a> [1u]</li> <li>Jannik Sinner to win Group B at 3.25 <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Well rated bookmaker">with Bet365</a> [1u]</li> <li>Alejandro Davidovich Fokina each way at 31<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Place your bets with Unibet!"> with Unibet</a> [0.25u each way]</li></ul></div>
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