Next Gen ATP Semi-Finals Preview and Top Betting Tips

Tennis Pilot

Friday, November 8, 2019 8:38 AM UTC

Friday, Nov. 8, 2019 8:38 AM UTC

De Minaur and Sinner strong favourites to make the final in Milan

<div><h2>Next Gen ATP Finals</h2><p><strong>Friday, November 8, Milan</strong></p><p>It was a mixed bag on day 3. De Minaur won in just 15 games, comfortably landing our bet on under 23.5 games, but Ymer was poor against Tiafoe and didn’t even manage a set. Breakeven is better than a loss and onto day 4 and the semi finals we go.</p><p>Continuing the trend, we once again had just the one underdog winner on Thursday. Humbert defeated Sinner in 4 sets and the Frenchman closed at a whopping 3 to 1 pre match with one bookie. I hope I at least put some people off backing Sinner at the prices. As I suggested may be the case, Humbert played with freedom and Sinner wasn’t on his best game.</p><p>None of the remaining matches were particularly competitive, all won in 3 sets by the favourite. Not including Humbert, the underdogs managed a total of just 14 games between them. Ruud was unable to create any chances and, as hoped, De Minaur simply out lasted his opponent. Similarly, Kecmanovic was simply too solid for Davidovich, whose flashy game was entertaining but far too inconsistent on the day. Ymer didn’t manage to find his range in the first set and played the key points poorly, but to be fair, Tiafoe didn’t give a whole lot away.</p><p>Day four has two matches on the cards. De Minaur and Sinner won their groups and are 1.3 and 1.4 favourites against Tiafoe and Kecmanovic respectively. I would expect both favourites to win, and Sinner in particular I expect will bounce back with a strong showing. It seems unwise to bet against someone with a 37% ROI in 2019, especially given Kecmanovic is a poor underdog generally. He has won 7 of 26 matches priced over evens in 2019 for a -24.8% ROI including just 2 of his last 8. Perhaps 3-1 to Sinner, but at the prices it’s hard to be sure of value, and I’m not convinced Kecmanovic will be able to match the Italian.</p><p><a href=";a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></p><p>De Minaur and Tiafoe feel a little easier to read. Again, I would expect the favourite to win, but I doubt De Minaur will have it entirely his own way, so I’ll opt for 3-1 at 3.75 with Skybet. Tiafoe tends to come close but lose against the netter players on tour. Priced over evens against top 50 opposition in non slam events he has lost in 3 sets in 13 of his 39 matches. Usually he has a good set in him, and he’s proficient enough to take advantage of a poor set from De Minaur. This week his only loss came in 4 sets against Sinner, who has been playing at a comparable level to De Minaur, though a different style.</p><p>De Minaur is not a player where I would pick this bet lightly. He’s too consistent and high intensity. Many players get overwhelmed, as Ruud did today. However, Tiafoe’s history suggests he is likely to manage a high level of tennis for at least some of the match. De Minaur’s game is somewhat limited, if very solid, so he is vulnerable to being outclassed for a period.</p><p>The Aussie has played 6 matches priced 1.1 to 1.99 at the Next Gen ATP Finals and he’s won in 4 sets in 3 of them, with just 2 coming in straight sets. He seems to be improving over the week, but Tiafoe is the best player he has faced yet and I would expect him to need a little time to adjust. It doesn’t feel like quite time to hedge, but I’ll take a chance on 3-1 for half stakes.</p><p><em><strong>Best bets: Alex De Minaur 3-1 at 3.75 with Skybet [0.5u]</strong></em></p></div>
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