Nitto ATP Finals Best Betting Tips and Predictions

Tennis Pilot

Thursday, November 14, 2019 7:06 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 14, 2019 7:06 PM UTC

Medvedev a value price against overrated Zverev in London
<div><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>ATP World Tour Finals</strong></h2><p style="text-align:center"><a href="" target="_blank" title="ATP World Tour Finals - Live Betting Odds"><strong>Friday, November 15, London</strong></a></p><p> </p><p>We had success last out as Tsitsipas eased to victory 6-3 6-2 against Zverev. Once again the German was over rated by the markets and it really was obvious on the day that he could do little to compete.</p><p>I mentioned that Medvedev was a temptation at evens, but that his price was cut too quickly. Well, that turned out to be a blessing in disguise with the Russian losing from 5-1 after having match points on return. Nadal said after the match that it was a ‘one in a thousand’ win and indeed he hit 1000 on betting exchanges at one point. A remarkable comeback from Rafa (and meltdown from Medvedev) which keeps his hopes of winning a first tour end final alive.</p><p>Turning to Friday we have 2 matches on the cards, both of which are pivotal to who goes through from Group Andre Agassi. Nadal takes on Tsitsipas and Zverev faces Medvedev, and with Tsitsipas already confirmed, only Nadal and Zverev can go through. In essence, both Nadal and Zverev need to win their match.</p><p>I had a mind to back Tsitsipas against Nadal given his excellent form this week, but at a price of 2.5 it is hard to justify, especially given the psychological dynamic of Rafa’s comeback win. I would expect this to be very competitive, and if I had to pick a bet it would be Tsitsipas, perhaps to win in 3, and/or tiebreaks, but I’m more interested in the other match.</p><p>Zverev looked lost last out and once again his price makes little sense to me. It is fair to point out that Medvedev has no chance of qualifying which raises motivation question marks. However, I would expect him to want this win regardless, especially after the pain of his meltdown. It is far less frustrating to go home 1-2 rather than 0-3, and it may be that he can play with freedom while the pressure piles on Zverev.</p><p>Moreover, based on this week’s form I would give Medvedev the edge despite his being winless. Zverev was flattered by Nadal in his opening match, with the Spaniard truly awful, and was flattened by Tsitsipas. Medvedev, by contrast, should have defeated Rafa and the Spaniard was in much better form, and he came very close against Tsitsipas losing 7-6 6-4. He won 13% more on his second serve than Tsitsipas so he was the better player from the back of the court, but couldn’t touch Tsitsipas’s first serve and didn’t play the big points well.</p><p>Longer term stats and recent form also make this price look strange. For starters, they played in the final of Shanghai a few weeks ago and Medvedev was a 6-4 6-1 winner priced 1.5. Over the last year at main level Medvedev has a 7.2% edge in the hold break which would usually mean he starts as clear favourite and on indoor hard the discrepancy increases to a whopping 13.3%.</p><p>Medvedev has been a money machine in 2019 with a 75% win rate and 11.7% ROI. Priced 1.5 to 2.99 he is 18-8 for a 19.7% ROI. Against the top 20 he has a 13-8 record and 24.7% ROI. Zverev by contrast has won 64% of matches in 2019 for a -9.5% ROI and he is 6-11 priced 1.5 to 2.99 for a -40.2% ROI. Against the top 20 he has a 6-10 record for a -21.2% ROI and he’s won just 1 of 6 priced 1.5 to 1.99.</p><p>Nothing bar motivation speculation would suggest this price makes any sense, and I would expect Zverev to once again come up short against an elite level opponent. Perhaps 1.7 to 1.8 would make sense so at evens it is an easy bet and my selection for day 6.</p><p><strong>Best bet: </strong><a href="" target="_blank" title="Game Odds">Daniil Medvedev to defeat Alexander Zverev </a>at 2 with <a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top rated bookmaker">Bet365</a></p><p><a href=";a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></p></div>
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