Nitto ATP Finals Day 1 Best Bets

Tennis Pilot

Saturday, November 9, 2019 8:55 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 9, 2019 8:55 PM UTC

Djokovic likely to punish the one dimensional game of big serving Berrettini

<div><h2>ATP World Tour Finals</h2><p><strong><a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/tennis/world/atp/atp-world-tour-finals-men-singles/novak-djokovic-vs-matteo-berrettini-3979640/?mtid=126" target="_blank">Sunday, November 10, London</a></strong></p><p>Things went as hoped in the Next Gen semi finals, with both favourites winning in 4 sets. That meant a handy 3.75 winner on De Minaur 3-1, and it means both our article outright De Minaur and the show outright Sinner is into the final. Sinner was at 7 while De Minaur was 3, so we can enjoy the final without spending a penny more. That on top of landing Sinner to win his group at 3.25, and all in all it’s been a profitable tournament. Turning to the ATP World Tour finals, we have 2 matches on the cards for day 1.</p><p>The highlight for most is probably Federer against Thiem, where the Swiss maestro has a surprisingly poor 2-4 H2H record. The numbers are a little misleading though. Two of those wins came around the time Federer was clearly physically impaired in 2016, just before he took time off, and another 2 have come on clay, so bear little relevance today. They met here in 2018 and Federer won 2 and 3, and Thiem has generally struggled with quick indoor conditions, so it may be a one-sided affair.</p><p>Three of their last 4 meetings have gone the distance, however, and it’s a tricky match to read overall. If Thiem doesn’t struggle with conditions he will almost certainly look too long at 4, but if he does struggle, or if Federer is as clinical as he was in Basel, it may well be a quick match. If anything, I would probably take 3 sets at 3 with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bet365</a>, but it’s not for me.</p><p>The second match sees Novak take on Berrettini, and this seems a little more straightforward. Novak tends to save his best for the slams, but also for the elite tier events – the Masters and World Tour Finals. He will be especially motivated this year given the hotly contested world number 1 spot. Historically, he has been all business at the tour end finals with just 3 of his 20 matches since 2014 going over 21.5 games. He’s the best returner in the history of men’s tennis and when he’s on song almost every match will be done in 21 games or fewer.</p><p>Since his retirement at the US Open, he hasn’t looked at his peak and there are still fitness concerns, but he’s been fairly clinical overall with only 3 of his 13 matches going over 21.5 games. More generally, 19 of Novak’s last 50 priced sub 1.5 against top 50 opposition indoors have gone over their total games line, so the 1.82 on offer today doesn’t make a ton of sense.</p><p>Berrettini is a rising talent and a phenomenal player to bet on recently, so he’s not someone I oppose lightly. However, his game is entirely based on big serving and power, and he isn’t yet adept at adjusting and experimenting within a match. Djokovic has several obvious targets, such as the Berrettini backhand, which he can exploit, and he is the master of exploiting weaknesses. In essence, Berrettini is a little limited and as a result, he’s struggled against the elite with a 0-4 record priced over 3 against the top 10 (1-11 in sets).</p><p>More notably, he hasn’t any success against the very best losing all 6 sets against Nadal and Federer, and 4 of those sets were 8 games or fewer. This is his first time at the world tour finals, so there is also a chance he’s overawed, as he was in the fourth round of Wimbledon against Federer losing 6-1 6-2 6-2.</p><p>One day Berrettini will sort his game out against the elite, but until then I’m happy assuming he will come up short. It’s always risky to take the under bet indoors with a big server involved, but, on a day where little stands out as value, this seems like a sensible play and is my selection for day 1.</p><p><strong>Best bets: <a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/tennis/world/atp/atp-world-tour-finals-men-singles/novak-djokovic-vs-matteo-berrettini-3979640/?mtid=126" target="_blank">Djokovic vs Berrettini under 21.5 games at 1.82</a> with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Unibet</a></strong></p></div>
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