Nitto ATP Finals Day 2 Preview and Best Betting Tips

Tennis Pilot

Sunday, November 10, 2019 4:35 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 10, 2019 4:35 PM UTC

Medvedev likely to make it 6 from 6 against Tsitsipas in favourable conditions

<div><h2>ATP World Tour Finals</h2><p><strong>Monday, November 11, London</strong></p><p>Nice start to the week as Djokovic defeated Berrettini comfortably to land our bet on under 21.5 games at 1.82. Conditions look especially quick this week which will hopefully lead to some nail biters. We have two matches on the cards for day 2 as Medvedev takes on Tsitsipas and Nadal faces Zverev.</p><p>As often is the case, Nadal’s fitness is a big question mark this week, which certainly puts me off backing the Spaniard at 1.5 for this match. He’s generally poor in quick, indoor conditions and has never won the tour end either, so Zverev does have some appeal. The German won this event last year and while he has been poor overall in 2019, conditions should suit, and he will be motivated to end the year strong. Still, he trails the H2H 0-5 and all things considered this is not a match where I have a strong read either way at the prices, so I’ll pass.</p><p>Instead, I’ll take a chance on Medvedev to win and over 22.5 games at 2.75 with Bet365. Tsitsipas is a player I would generally avoid opposing as the underdog. He has a good record of at least pushing the elite and you would have lost money opposing him generally as underdog against the top 20. In his 24 matches priced 2 to 6 against the top 20 on indoor and outdoor hard he has won or covered the total games line in 16, with 4 of the 8 losses coming against one of the big 3 - Rafa, Djokovic or Federer.</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=168&amp;a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://images-production-euw2-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5d582dcf927b95968483da5f/original-10-bet-new-customer-welcome-bonus" style="width:100%" /></a></p><p>Tsitsipas has trailed off a little towards the end of the year with poor losses to Novak and Federer in his last couple of tournaments, but he loves the big stage, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the tour end finals were in the back of his mind in recent weeks. He has had around 10 days to recover and get himself ready, and I imagine he will be very up for this event. Even more so given Medvedev is his opening match. These two have had a very heated rivalry so far in their short careers and Tsitsipas will be itching to get revenge.</p><p>Unfortunately for him, Medvedev has won all 5 meetings, and all 5 have come since 2018. That seems unlikely to change given their respective level right now, though inevitably it cannot continue forever. Notably, in 4 they have both won a set and the most recent was 7-6 7-5, so none have come easily, and all have gone over the total games line. The average games per match is 26 not including their one 5 set match.</p><p>I considered Medvedev 2-1 at 4 and this probably is a reasonable option, but a couple of factors make me lean towards the win/over games combination instead. Firstly, conditions are quick at the O2, similar to when they last met a month ago in Shanghai and Medvedev won 7-6 7-5 priced identically to today at 1.4. They are both tall at 6’ 6” and 6’ 4” with excellent serves so a similar, serve orientated match seems likely in quick conditions, which would make the over combo better than 2-1 in my opinion.</p><p>More importantly, Medvedev has really improved since most of their meetings, as shown by his price of 1.4 today compared to 2.1, 2.2 and 2.5 in 3 of their last 4 meetings. He has been a straight sets machine winning 10 of his 11 priced 1.2 to 1.99 against the top 20 in straight sets (11-0 overall with one 3 set win), but still 5 of those matches went over the total games line. In other words, Medvedev has not always been able to dominate completely when priced favourite against quality opposition, but his consistency has generally meant a 2-0 win regardless.</p><p>On another day I may take a chance on Zverev, but all things considered caution seems the play in that match. Given that we can get 2.75 on something which has landed in every match between Medvedev and Tsitsipas, it seems like the clearest value play and is my selection for day 2.</p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><strong>Best bets: Medvedev to win and over 22.5 games at 2.75 with Bet365</strong></a></p></div>
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