Nitto ATP Finals Day 4: Tsitsipas vs. Zverev

Tennis Pilot

Tuesday, November 12, 2019 7:47 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2019 7:47 PM UTC

Tsitispas a value underdog against defending champion Zverev in London

<div><h2>ATP World Tour Finals</h2><p><a href="" target="_blank"><strong>Wednesday, November 13, London</strong></a></p><p>No luck for our moneyline/total game double on <a href="" target="_blank">the match between Medvedev and Tsitsipas</a> with the Greek taking it 7-6, 6-4. We got half the bet right as the over bet won, but Tsitsipas surprised me with his consistent high level of play. I had expected a better showing from Medvedev who was a little flat, but I wouldn’t take anything away from Stefanos.</p><p>We were a tad unfortunate with the show bet on Federer 6-3 or 6-1 set 1 against Berrettini. The main reasoning for the bet was that Federer would very likely serve first, and he did, but he won 7-6 6-3. As we turn to day 4 there are two very close matches as Nadal takes on Medvedev and Tsitsipas plays Zverev.</p><p>I had a mind to back Medvedev at evens given Nadal is clearly well below match fit, but the market was too quick for me and it’s hard to justify backing him now at a shorter price. If Nadal comes out exactly as he did against Zverev a loss seems inevitable, but Rafa is a smart player and will almost certainly have a new strategy coming into this match. Either that or I expect he’ll retire/withdraw, so, if you do choose to back Medvedev, make sure to avoid bookies who void after the opening set has been played, such as <a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bet365</a>.</p><p>Instead, I’ll take a chance on Tsitsipas making it 3 from 3 against Zverev for 2019 at a price of 2 with Sportingbet. The German was good against Nadal but the 6-2, 6-4 scoreline has much more to do with Nadal than Zverev. Conditions may favour Zverev and he is defending champion, so there are clear risks, but all things considered, I can’t have him as favourite.</p><p>Tsitsipas has been in far better form in 2019 overall and he’s won 5 of the 6 H2H sets this year, most recently winning 7-6, 6-4 just over a month ago in Beijing. The rising talent has been a blessing for punters with a 45% ROI over his last 50 matches as underdog (82% ROI in 2019). Against the top 20, his record is a superb 12-9 in 2019 for a 63% ROI and he clearly plays his best tennis on the big stage, as he did against Medvedev.</p><p>Zverev, by contrast, has been excellent to oppose with a -15.5% ROI over his last 50 matches as favourite and he’s won just 5 of 13 priced 1.5 to 1.99 in 2019 for a -37.7% ROI. In complete contrast to Tsitsipas, he has a 6-9 record and -16% ROI against the top 20 in 2019 and priced 1.5 to 1.99 against the top 20 he has won just 1 of 5, with his last loss coming against Tsitsipas himself.</p><p>Zverev can be an excellent big match player, as he showed defeating Federer and Djokovic here last year, but as of late that has not been the case. Most recently in Shanghai, for example, he had played well all week but froze under the pressure in the final, regressing back to the passive, pushy tennis which has plagued him all year and losing 6-4 6-1 as a result. He’s lost 2 of his 3 finals in 2019 overall despite being favourite for all 3 and the one he did win was 10-8 in a third set tiebreak priced 1.5 against Jarry, where the underdog had 2 match points, one on his own serve. I imagine he’ll get his mojo back, but I’m unsure when, and I’m happy to assume it won’t be tomorrow.</p><p><a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bet365 </a>opened with Tsitsipas at 1.72 and most other bookies opened at around 1.8. The drift to 2 is presumably based on Zverev’s perceived good form against Nadal, plus his being defending champion and perhaps the longer term stats. None of that would be enough of a worry in my opinion to merit such a large drift, and overall I would have to agree with the original pricing.</p><p><strong>Best bets: Tsitsipas to defeat Zverev at 2 with <a href=";a=b2e07733-b156-44ba-bdcb-83e67b8f8c27&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Sportingbet</a></strong></p></div>
comment here