Nitto ATP Finals Day 5 Best Tennis Bets and Predictions

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Wednesday, November 13, 2019 5:52 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2019 5:52 PM UTC

Can Dominic Thiem wrap up a table topping Group Borg effort with yet another impressive win?
<div><h2 style="text-align:center">Dominic Thiem vs. Matteo Berrettini</h2><p style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/tennis/world/atp/atp-world-tour-finals-men-singles/berrettini-vs-thiem-3986393/" target="_blank" title="Game Odds"><strong>Thursday, November 14, London</strong></a></p><h2>Match of the year</h2><p>In what may well have been the very best match of the entire year, Dominic Thiem proved himself to be capable of beating anyone on any surface. Prevailing in a 2 hour &amp; 47 minutes long epic thriller over Novak Djokovic, 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-6(5), the win over Roger Federer was backed up by an even more impressive scalp. The Austrian threw the kitchen sink and then some at the world´s best defender and returner, smashing winners from everywhere on the court, leaving even Djokovic astounded. Hitting a total of 50(!) winners to 44 unforced errors, the relentless pursuit paid dividends in an incredibly clinical performance. Despite being broken serving for the match, Thiem was clutch under pressure and came back from 3-0 and 4-1 down in the final set tiebreak. Topping group Borg, the 26-year Austrian has now qualified for the semifinals.</p><p> </p><h2>Limitations laid bare</h2><p>Make no mistake, it´s been a scintillating year for Matteo Berrettini, starting it outside of the top 50 in the world, and breaking into the top 10 off a fantastic semifinal run in the US Open. It´s been a well deserved breakthrough for the 23-year old Italian, and his future is bright. However, this week in the ATP Finals against the elite, his limitations have been laid bare. Though possessing a thunderous 140mph serve, Berrettini utilizes little variety on it, oftenmost going down the T. Attempting to dominate and shorten points through the use of a big serve and big forehand will only get you that far against the elite. In the longer rallies, the world no. 8´s movement, backhand and return are weaknesses that have been preyed upon. Against Roger Federer, in the first set alone, Matteo hit 0(!) winners to 8 unforced errors off the backhand wing. He also wins nowhere near enough points on return, with the already low 35.3% return points won sinking to 30.3% against top-10 opposition, in several matches failing to even win 20%.</p><p> </p><h2>Not measuring up</h2><p>Dominic Thiem has gone from strength to strength in his development as an all-surface player this season, and the scintillating, aggressive hitting he showcased in the match against Djokovic is the best I´ve seen him play. Though the semifinal berth is indeed locked up, there is no reason to let this incredibly positive momentum go to waste. Matteo Berrettini has already been eliminated from contention, and while he may be able to play with freedom, his game just doesn´t measure up against the elite right now. Expect Thiem to expose the Berrettini´s weakness in movement and backhand, enroute to a straight sets victory. That outcome pays a fine 2.07 with Unibet.</p><p><strong>Best bet: Thiem -1.5 sets at 2.07 (107/100) with [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Bookmaker!">Unibet</a>] 1.5u </strong></p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&amp;a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%;height:38px" /></a></p><h2 style="text-align:center">Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer</h2><p style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/tennis/world/atp/atp-world-tour-finals-men-singles/federer-vs-djokovic-3986395/" target="_blank" title="Game Odds"><strong>Thursday, November 14, London </strong></a></p><h2>No room for error</h2><p>The battle for year-end no. 1 has intensified as the week has gone on, and for Novak Djokovic, there is no longer any room for error. Rafael Nadal will not be able to win more than round robin match, and currently leads by 640 points. This means that the Serb now controls his own destiny, and if he wins the title, he is the world no. 1. Depending on the Spaniard´s results, making the final might even be enough. But in order to get there, he must overcome the tough loss against Dominic Thiem. In all honesty, the 32-year old didn´t do a whole lot wrong, he was simply overpowered by a redlining Austrian who got through the Serb´s defenses on 50 occasions. However, the world no. 2 was broken on all four break points faced in this affair, something highly unusual which has only happened on two previous occasions since 2007. After this loss, there is no more room for error, as Djokovic must win against Roger Federer or he will have to settle for world no. 2 to end 2019.</p><p> </p><h2>Getting the job done</h2><p>It hasn´t been a great tournament for Roger Federer. The Swiss Maestro has been well below his usual standards, and looked unsettled throughout in his opener against Dominic Thiem. Misfiring wildly and not finding his clutch game when most needed, he fell to a second straight first round robin match defeat. Against Matteo Berrettini, the forehand in particular was sometimes a mess. Federer ended up with 12 total unforced errors off that wing. However, his defense against the Italian´s heavy onslaught was stellar at times, and the 38-year old showed his incredible skills at the net when moving forward. In a solid serving effort, the world no. 3 was just too good for Berrettini when push came to shove in the first set tiebreaker, taking it 7-2. As the match went on, Roger cranked up the pressure on the Italian´s service games, and that pressure became telling as he immediately broke the 23-year old to love. Breaking once more to wrap up the second set 6-3, the Swiss Maestro moved to a perfect 17-0 in his second round robin match at this event.</p><p> </p><h2>A must win matchup</h2><p>This will be the highly anticipated rematch between the pair, after the epic five-set thriller we saw in this year´s Wimbledon final. In that affair, Federer held two Championship points on his racquet, but crumbled under the pressure to go on to lose. In recent years, where age has obviously played a part, the elegant Swiss has struggled against the elite, and since 2018 he has gone 3-9 against those present in this tournament. And after losing that Wimbledon final, it hasn´t been the same man. Since Djokovic caught Federer and made it 22-22 in the H2H matchups four years ago, he has won five straight. While the 38-year old has the power advantage, he just can´t hang with his younger opponent in any sort of rally. This is a matchup that Djokovic has to win in order to have a chance to retain the year-end world no. 1, and he´s looked the much better player this week. I expect the Serb to be too strong in the pressure moments, where the Swiss has been let down recently, and clinch his sixth straight victory over Federer. A -1.5 sets handicap for Novak pays 2.08 with Unibet, and is the play here.</p><p><strong>Best bet: Djokovic -1.5 sets at 2.08 (27/25) with [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Bookmaker!">Unibet</a>] 1.5u</strong></p></div>
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