Nitto ATP Finals Preview and Betting Tips

Tennis Pilot

Sunday, November 17, 2019 9:38 AM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 17, 2019 9:38 AM UTC

Tsitsipas and Thiem have both been in excellent form this week and look set for a nail-biter of a final in London

<div><h2>ATP World Tour Finals</h2><p><strong>Sunday, November 17, London</strong></p><p>We can count ourselves a tad unlucky not to have landed either of the tiebreak bets in Federer/Tsitsipas, with Tsitsipas saving 11 of 12 break points, several at crucial moments towards the end of the two sets. After holding 98% in all previous encounters Federer was broken 3 times in 2 sets, 33%, losing 6-3 6-4.</p><p>A frustrating loss, but then this week has been record-breaking for the event with 10 of the 14 underdogs winning. Quick conditions is one explanation, but even despite that none of the big 3 have looked near their best overall, especially Nadal and Novak who are clearly not 100% fit. For the fourth year running the winner will not be Federer or Djokovic, a major shift given the pair won 9 of the previous 10 years.</p><p>Tsitsipas and Thiem have been excellent all week, though they have massively over performed on key points. Part of that is clearly luck, but it’s fair to say that neither has given much away when it counts and have executed their game plan expertly. The bookies have this as a near coin flip with a very small edge to Thiem. I can’t disagree, but they still don’t seem to have clocked quite how fast these courts are playing in their side market pricing.</p><p>The tiebreak market is a little less appealing in this match, partly due to poor H2H stats, but also context, with nerves not unlikely to play a part in key moments in such a big match. Instead, I’m happier taking a chance on a long match, either in the form of tiebreaks, or a swingy, nervy three set match. Over 22.5 games is 1.73 with Unibet and, while the price isn’t amazing, it still seems a point or more too high.</p><p><a href=";a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></p><p>This week they have played 18 sets between them and 9 have gone past 5-5, with just 1 going under 9 games. Tsitsipas has been excellent on serve holding 93.6%, helped massively by his 86.4% break point save percentage. It is unlikely that he will maintain that efficiency on break points, but he is still winning 67.4% of service points which would equate to around an 86% hold percentage with normal break point save numbers.</p><p>Thiem has held 84.6% which is less impressive but still strong, and more importantly he’s been remarkably consistent this week and his strategy and execution have been dramatically improved from his past showings on the surface. Notably he’s won just 32.3% of return points despite breaking 20.5% because he has converted a remarkable 80% of break points. Usually winning 32.3% of return points would equate to around a 13% break rate, so it is fair to say that Thiem hasn’t been prolific so much as consistent from the back of the court.</p><p>I would still expect the Austrian to win this, but I expect it will be a grind whoever wins and there is no chance I’m having a bet on the moneyline. Their one recent match was in the final of Beijing at the end of September and Thiem won 3-6 6-4 6-1. I would expect today to be a little more serve orientated but either way it seems likely to play out similarly. It is a first final for both at the tour end and obviously a big occasion, so it’s hard to judge the way nerves and swings will play out.</p><p>Regardless, it makes sense to take advantage of the quick conditions and the high likelihood of a tight match, and over games seems the best bet overall. I couldn’t put anyone off over 29.5 at 3.2 but I’ll stick to the more conservative bet this time.</p><p><a href=";a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best bets: Over 22.5 games at 1.73 with Unibet</strong></em></a></p><p> </p></div>
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