Nitto ATP Semifinals Preview and Betting Tips

Tennis Pilot

Saturday, November 16, 2019 8:13 AM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 16, 2019 8:13 AM UTC

History suggests that tiebreaks are likely as Tsitsipas takes on Federer in quick conditions

<div><h2 style="text-align:center"><b>Roger Federer vs Stefanos Tsitsipas </b></h2><div><div style="text-align:center"> </div><p style="text-align:center"><strong>ATP World Tour Finals</strong><br /><strong>Saturday, November 16, London</strong></p><p>It wasn’t to be for our bet on Medvedev who failed to generate a single break point against Zverev. It was an excellent serving display from Zverev. He made 81% of first serves and won 88% of first serve points but was still well below his best from the back of the court winning just 33% of second serve points and 25% of points on Medvedev’s second serve. Medvedev won 78% of first serve points and gave up two break points, but that was enough, and he was served off the court. After such an impressive recent run Medvedev will be disappointed not to have won a match at his first tour end finals, especially against Rafa, but I’m sure he’ll bounce back.</p><p>Onwards and we now have our semi finalists. Zverev’s win means that Rafa is out and instead Thiem will play Zverev and Tsitsipas will face Federer. Zverev served well above his normal standard today and it seems fair to assume he would have lost otherwise. I doubt he will be able to keep that up and combined with Thiem’s recent improvements it’s hard not to favour the Austrian. However, 1.8 doesn’t scream value, and Zverev may well raise his game at the latter stages of this event as he did last year defeating Federer and Djokovic back to back. At the prices I’m not keen to spend any money on this match and instead I’ll turn to Federer and Tsitsipas.</p><p><a href=";a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></p><p>Federer was all business in his match against Djokovic, employing the hyper aggressive style he’s used so well since comeback against Rafa. Novak didn’t look entirely fit to me, but take nothing away from Roger, he executed his game well and served well overall. The match up with Tsitsipas is very different though and I’d say the underdog looks a little long at 3.5. Tsitsipas relishes the big stage and has been consistently good so far this week. If he can maintain that level there won’t be many chances in this match and we’ve seen several times of late how Federer can wobble under pressure or simply not bring his best game.</p><p>However, of more interest to me is the tiebreak market. The pair have met 4 times, all since 2018 and there is a clear trend emerging. Federer has held 98% over those 4 matches, Tsitsipas 93% and half the sets have been tiebreaks. Tsitsipas is 6’ 4” and serve orientated holding 86% over the last year and 95% so far this week. If he can manage to make it to a tiebreak against Rafa, I would expect him to have at least an equal chance against Federer.</p><p>Conditions are quick at the O2 with 81.2% holds and 15% more tiebreaks than the indoor hard average over the last 3 years and it has been especially fast in 2019 with 84.4% holds and 32% tiebreaks. Tsitsipas played a first set tiebreak against both Medvedev and Nadal, and 3 of the 7 sets totals went past 10 games, while Federer played a first set tie against Berrettini and lost 7-5 7-5 to Thiem.</p><p>It’s been a remarkable year for underdogs, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that continue tomorrow, but it’s hard to ignore that Federer has held 98% in the career meetings so far. I would expect a Federer/Thiem final, but with little conviction, and I’m happier taking a chance on tiebreaks in quick conditions.</p><p><a href=";a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best bets: Roger Federer vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 1 Tiebreak: Yes at 4.5 with Betfair, and Tiebreak in Match: Yes at 2.5 with Betfair</strong></em></a></p><div> </div></div></div>
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