Paris Masters Semi Finals Betting Tips and Predictions

Tennis Pilot

Friday, November 1, 2019 8:22 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 1, 2019 8:22 PM UTC

Dimitrov has been excellent this week and can give Djokovic a run for his money in Paris

<div><h2 style="text-align:center">Paris Masters Semifinals</h2><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Saturday, November 2, Paris</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/tennis/world/atp/" target="_blank"><strong>Check for Live Odds For The Matchups Here</strong></a></p><p>We had a nice 2.5 winner last out on the men’s side as Chardy and Garin went to 3 sets. At the time of writing we have just the one semi-final priced up between Djokovic and Dimitrov with Shapovalov/Monfils and Tsonga/Nadal still to play.</p><p>Shapovalov/Nadal is the market’s projected semi-final, which would be an exciting match up in quick conditions. The young Canadian has been in scintillating form this week after landing his maiden title in Stockholm and he’s beaten Nadal in quick conditions in the past. Rafa has looked solid if unspectacular in his two matches and he has a poor record indoors winning 68% of his last 50 matches for a -10.3% ROI. For comparison, he has won 90% of his last 50 matches generally, so this is clearly one of his worst surfaces.</p><p>Shapovalov has exactly the kind of big serving, big-hitting game that has been shown numerous times to cause issues for Rafa. The Spaniard has also just got married and still may have fitness and injury concerns, though he hasn’t looked physically impaired so far. Either way, if Shapovalov maintains his form this week he has every chance and I would be tempted by anything over 4 on the underdog and anything over 3 on 3 sets.</p><p>Turning to the available match, we have a classic as Grigor ‘baby Fed’ Dimitrov takes on Novak Djokovic, world number 1. This is the most common clash of styles with an aggressive shot maker pitted against the best defender and counter puncher in the game. If they are both in form, it can make for an excellent, high-quality match, and that has been the case many times in the past.</p><p>Djokovic was clinical last out against Tsitsipas winning with a loss of just 3 games, but that was more a case of the underdog playing poorly in my eyes. In general, he’s looked shaky this week nearly dropping the opening set to both Moutet and Edmund, and he hasn’t looked fully fit in a long while, especially since retiring at the US Open. More broadly, he’s 1.16 for this match and has won just 13 of his 25 matches priced sub 1.5 against the top 50 in straight sets in 2019 and has a -14.6% ROI at that price range.</p><p>Dimitrov doesn’t generally have the kind of mental fortitude or class to beat the very best with a 6-43 record and -13.8% ROI priced over 3 against the top 10. He flatters to deceive on a regular basis showing promise only to fade when it really matters. Yet, as most who follow tennis are aware, he was once touted as a future world number 1 and one of the most talented players ever to grace the tour. The best he could manage was number 3 back in 2017, which, of course, is excellent, but he has underperformed his talent against the elite on the whole.</p><p>His potential is still there lingering, occasionally rearing it’s head, as it has this week in Paris, a venue where Dimitrov has often performed well. Goffin and Thiem were straight sets victims to Grigor and the Bulgarian was underdog for both. It is all about timing with Dimitrov and it seems sensible to take a chance this week, but given his poor win record against the elite, it may be wise to focus on the side markets.</p><p>Notably, despite Dimitrov winning just 6 of his 49 matches priced over 3 against the top 10, he has traded the opening 2 sets in 24 of those matches or 49%. The H2H is 8-1 to Djokovic but in 4 of the matches they have traded opening sets. They met at this event in 2016 with Dimitrov similarly priced at 8 and that match went to 3 sets.</p><p>We can get 3.5 on 3 sets which is clear value in my eyes and my selection for the semi-final.</p><p><strong>Best bets: </strong><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18" target="_blank">Total Sets: 3 at 3.5 with Bet365</a></p></div>
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