Can in-form Heather Watson once again raise her level for the big stage?
<div><h2><strong>Rebecca Peterson vs Heather Watson</strong></h2><p><a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/tennis/world/wta/wta-tianjin-china-women-singles/rebecca-peterson-vs-heather-watson-3948850/?mtid=126" target="_blank" title="Game Odds"><strong>Sunday, October 13, Tianjin</strong></a></p><p>Quite the week for British hope Heather Watson who is into her first main level final since 2016 and she’s done it in style dropping just one set despite being a clear underdog in 3 of her 4 matches. Peterson is the clear favourite on overall stats and 2019 form and she has shown incredible grit at key moments this week. However, she has looked less impressive than Watson in this event on the whole and has a history of struggling to win comfortably in later rounds.</p><p>Peterson has been one of the most consistent performers on tour in 2019 and on overall stats she is the clear favourite. She leads the one year hold/break by 12.3% and has won 21% more matches at main level in 2019. She is priced 1.5 for this match and priced sub 2 she has won 41 of her last 50 matches for a 20.1% ROI. These two met a few weeks ago in Wuhan qualies and Peterson won 6-2 6-2 priced 1.25. These are impressive stats and at face value makes the 1.5 on offer seem tempting, but they don’t tell the whole story.</p><p>Peterson’s strength lies in her consistency, adaptability and grit rather than having a particularly high peak. It is unsurprising, then, that she does her best work early in events and struggles to win comfortably in later rounds. Priced 1.2 to 1.99 in quarters, semis and finals she has a 27-17 record and -3% ROI. In essence, she meets the streakier players with a higher peak who are in form that week and can’t match their level as easily. Once again, this week her level has been solid but unspectacular and it is clear to me that Watson has played the better tennis overall.</p><p>Watson is the story of this event. She’s played comfortably her best tennis of 2019 and reminded the tour that she is a former world number 38. Her game is based around shot making and heavy hitting and she has a very high peak. As often with this style of player, her problem is consistency rather than quality. She is a big match player and when on a streak she is formidable against any level of opposition. The stats bear this out. Priced over evens against the top 100 in finals, semis and quarters she has won 9 of 18 matches for a 43% ROI. Hard courts are her best surface and she’s won 5 of 9 priced over evens against the top 100 in finals, semis and quarters for a 81.1% ROI.</p><p>One again this week she has improved over the tournament and posted some excellent numbers. Her combined service/return points won percentage is 107.9% which is superb. Peterson by contrast is on 104.5% and she has played weaker opposition. Watson’s run really started to begin when she defeated second seed and top 20 player Qiang Wang 6-3 6-0 priced 5 in the second round. Next up, after failing to serve out the match in the second set, she battled through a 3 set epic 7-5 6-7 7-6 priced 3.75 against eighth seed Magda Linette. Finally, last round she demolished the in form Veronika Kudermetova 6-1 6-4 priced 3.5. She has been exceptional all week and history suggests that she is likely to maintain that level in the final.</p><p style="text-align:center"><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&f=3"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p><p>I considered going for the win market and I wouldn’t put anyone off, but <a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/tips/tennis/" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Tips">a couple of factors make me lean towards the first set market. </a>Firstly, and most importantly, Peterson clearly gets better over matches as she figures out her opponent and is able to take advantage of any lapse in concentration, which is especially common with power orientated opponents. While she’s lost just 18% of her last 50 as favourite, she’s dropped the first set in 32%. When priced 1.2 to 1.99 in quarters, semis and finals she’s won 61.36% of matches but she’s won just 47.73% of first sets. When she wins the first set, it’s generally game over – she’s won 18 of 21 priced 1.2 to 1.99 in quarters, semis and finals including her last 10 in a row. Yet she’s managed to win from a set behind many times, again highlighting that one of her major strengths is adaptability, recoverability and determination. Just this week she has come back from a set down in her last two rounds, most notably coming back from 6-0 down last round priced 1.6 against Jabeur.</p><p>Watson is also a player who almost always wins the first set if she is going to win the match. Priced over evens against the top 100 in finals, semis and quarters she has won the first set in 8 of her 9 victories. Her last 28 victories in a row as underdog going back to 2016 have seen her win the first set as have 82.76% of her underdog victories in total over her career. All in all, I’m happy taking a chance that Watson won’t come back from a set down but may well win the first set and still lose.</p><p>My price would be 2.1 to 2.2 and indeed<a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/tennis/" target="_blank" title="Tennis Live Betting Odds"> almost every bookie opened at 2.2</a>. With this drift we have clear value in my eyes at anything over 2.37 and certainly at 2.5.</p><p><strong>Tennis bet: </strong><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=153&a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="A+ Bookmaker">Heather Watson to win set 1 at 2.5 with Betfair</a></p></div>