Rogers Cup Semi Finals Preview and Top Betting Predictions

OM Staff

Saturday, August 10, 2019 9:22 AM UTC

Saturday, Aug. 10, 2019 9:22 AM UTC

Who will win the all-Russian semi-final? Medvedev or Khachanov?

<div><h2><strong>Karen Khachanov (6) vs Daniil Medvedev (8)</strong></h2><p><strong><em>Saturday, 10 August, Montreal</em></strong></p><p>Medvedev and Khachanov made history earlier in 2019 by joining the ATP top 10, the first time two Russians are in the top 10 since 2010. This match up guarantees a Russian finalist in Canada for the first time since Safin took the Toronto title in 2000. It is also the first all-Russian semi-final at this event. Both are talented, dangerous players but it’s hard to see past Medvedev on current form.</p><p>The matchup is contrasting with Khachanov’s game largely based around heavy hitting while Medvedev is more comfortable counter punching, though he can hit through the courts when desired. The crucial difference is Medvedev’s consistency, a quality Khachanov has lacked all season. Karen may, of course, play an inspired match and continue a run similar to Paris last year, but his level and confidence in 2019 suggest otherwise.</p><p>Medvedev has been the model of consistency the past year with a 64-23 record and 18% ROI. Priced as a 1.2 to 1.99 favourite on indoor and outdoor hard he has won 45 of his last 50 matches for a 36% ROI including 27 of his last 30 on outdoor hard alone. Khachanov is a good underdog generally, which is the main worry for this bet, but he struggles against the very best with a 7-20 record as underdog against the top 10 and -30% ROI.</p><p>Medvedev’s route through the tournament has been very comfortable with straight set wins over Edmund, Garin and Thiem for the loss of just 13 games overall. He has racked up some elite level numbers holding serve 95.8% of the time and breaking 52% of the time over the 3 matches. Khachanov by contrast struggled through two tight 3 setters in his opening rounds before winning comfortably against a poor-quality Alex Zverev last round. He has held 85.4% and broken 35% this week, still strong numbers but not even close to Medvedev’s dominance.</p><p>Medvedev sounded confident on court after defeating Thiem: “Of course, I was expecting a tougher match. I was happy that I was able to play so well, to beat him so easily. It saved me a lot of energy. It gave me a lot of confidence, so I'm very happy." The energy he has preserved over the week may come in very useful in this match, especially since this is the first time Khachanov has been deep in a tournament recently and so may have his fitness tested.</p><p>The two men are clearly close, as Khachanov pointed out. “It’s never easy to play against a friend from the same country. We grew up together. We played all the tournaments since 12 or 14. We know each other pretty well.” The H2H is 1-1 with both players winning a set in both matches, so it may well be a tight fought match, but unless we see a resurgence of Khachanov’s old form, I doubt he will have the extra level to beat Medvedev.</p><p><a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><strong><em>Best tip for the match: Daniil Medvedev at 1.5 (1/2) with Bet365</em></strong></a></p><p><strong><em><a href=";a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></em></strong></p><h2><strong>Sofia Kenin vs Bianca Andreescu</strong></h2><p><strong><em>Saturday, 10 August, Toronto</em></strong></p><p>Two players in excellent form this week face off for a place in the WTA Toronto final and I see little reason to have Andreescu as the underdog.</p><p>Earlier in the week we took Andreescu to dispatch of Bouchard and she delivered that and much more, winning as underdog against world number 5 Bertens and world number 3 Pliskova. Kenin has had an equally impressive run this week defeating world number 1 Barty and number 7 Svitolina, though she was somewhat lucky to recover from a double break down in the opening set.</p><p>Both players have a well rounded game and I imagine it will be a high quality, varied match with each player having their moments. Andreescu’s price can partly be explained by an off court MTO she took in her match against Pliskova for what seemed to be a right hip complaint. The Canadian home hope was able to win the decider against Pliskova so I’m not too concerned.</p><p>Kenin has a 19-8 record over the last year priced 1.5 to 2.99 for a 41.5% ROI while Andreescu is 15-3 for a 75.1% ROI so both are excellent when priced up in these close matches but Andreescu’s record is better.</p><p>Kenin has been in excellent form but she is still good to oppose as the favourite with a 18-13 record and -14% ROI vs top 100 opponents. Andreescu by contrast has won 10 of her last 11 as underdog against top 100 opposition for a 134% ROI.</p><p>The H2H is 2-1 to Andreescu with wins at 1.7 and 2 and a loss at 1.75. This year they have played twice with Andreescu winning 3 of the 5 sets. Close fought but again I see little reason to favour the American.</p><p>This is a first WTA Premier semi-final for Kenin and she may have some nerves to show for the occasion. I don’t see much reason to have Kenin as the favourite and hopefully home hope Andreescu can justify my faith with another strong showing. I would suggest taking this with Betfair or any other bookie who voids even after the first set is completed, just in case.</p><p><a href=";a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><strong><em>Best tip for the match: Bianca Andreescu at 2.25 (5/4) with Betfair</em></strong></a></p></div>
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