Rolex Masters Day 3 WTA Shenzhen Finals Day 4 Best Bets

Tennis Pilot

Tuesday, October 29, 2019 6:37 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2019 6:37 PM UTC

Pliskova has the weapons to push Andreescu to a decider in Shenzhen.
<div><h2><strong>Karolina Pliskova v Bianca Vanessa Andreescu</strong></h2><p><a href="" target="_blank" title="Odds Game"><strong>Wednesday, October 30, Shenzhen</strong></a></p><p>Quite an eventful day at the WTA finals in Shenzhen with tournament favourite Osaka pulling out, followed by both favourites losing, Barty and Kvitova, to Bertens and Bencic respectively. Bertens came from the Zhuhai finals, where she was flattened by Sabalenka in the final, to defeat Barty priced over 4 as Osaka’s alternative. It’s all a little up in the air from an outright perspective with any of Halep, Barty, Svitolina, Andreescu and Bencic still in with good chances.</p><p>Turning to Wednesday’s play we have 2 matches on the cards as Halep takes on Svitolina and Pliskova plays Andreescu. The former seems correctly priced as a pick ‘em and, while it is tempting to back Andreescu once again, the value for me lies in a side market.</p><p>Andreescu, like many talented young players, does her best work as an underdog, but her adaptability and sheer determination means she also rarely loses where she shouldn’t. Her record as favourite is 35-5 this year and I would expect that to continue, but she looked a little physically impaired in his first match and has a tendency to struggle to win easily. Of those 40 matches only 20 were settled in straight sets, and she’s gone the distance in 7 of 9 completed matches against the top 10.</p><p>One of those matches was against Pliskova in the week that she won Toronto. It’s a classic clash of styles, with the power of Pliskova pitted against the more strategic, counter punching Andreescu. I would expect each to have their moments, and that has been the case in the past when Pliskova has taken on the elite in similar situations. She is 2.38 for this match and priced 2 to 2.99 against the top 10 she has gone the distance in 7 of 14 matches including 3 of her last 4.</p><p>While 2.5 doesn’t scream value, I’d still have it closer to evens, perhaps 2.2 to 2.38.</p><p><strong>Best tennis bet: Total Sets: 3 at 2.5 with Skybet</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><a href=";a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2>John Isner vs Cristian Garin</h2><p><a href="" target="_blank" title="Game Odds"><strong>Wednesday, October 30, Paris</strong></a></p><p>We have 11 matches on the cards for day 3 of the Paris Masters and several interesting match ups. Nadal will play his first main level match since withdrawing from the Laver Cup and getting married and, while Mannarino seems an unlikely candidate for an upset, it will be telling how he fares early this week. Tsonga takes on Berrettini which will be a power dominated affair and the Frenchman surely has decent chances as an underdog, or perhaps tiebreaks are the play. Wawrinka and Cilic is a very tough match to call and priced accordingly, as is the match between</p><p>Bautista and De Minaur. For me the clearest value lies in the obvious – bet on Isner to conjure up tiebreaks.</p><p>The big man has played 45% tiebreaks over the last year at main level (53% on indoor hard) and over the last 3 years on indoor hard he has played 48% tiebreaks per set. We can get 2.5 which implies odds of 40%, yet based on pure numbers you would have to price this more like 2 to 2.2.</p><p>Isner takes on Garin, a player more comfortable on the clay but who has shown a very decent level on hard courts recently. In fact, he’s beaten Isner this summer and last out he lost 7-6 7-6 to Opelka, the Isner clone, losing just 6 points on serve all match, the least points anyone has ever lost on serve while still losing the match. In his first round of this event he defeated Cuevas, a better returner than Isner, without giving up a single break point and winning 97% of first serve points.</p><p>Conditions are variable in Paris but generally quick with 1.2% more holds than the indoor hard average over the last 3 years which should aid service dominance. The price of 2.5 again doesn’t scream value but on balance something closer to evens makes sense.</p><p><strong>Best bet: Set 1 Tiebreak: <a href=";a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Get in the game with Betfair">Yes at 2.5 with Betfair</a></strong></p></div>
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